Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

That's really interesting @ancientgran, we had 2 refuse collectors from different lorries (one plastics and one garden waste) catch covid back in April but the guys said none of the rest of their teams did, then 2 off sick recently from the same general waste lorry. They're all pretty good at hanging off the outside of the truck or wearing masks inside, but maybe it's the new variant again. We were all a bit worried about one of them in April because he's a really big guy and smoker, but he came back to work in the summer and has lost loads of weight since.
(I spend far too much time chatting across the road with local vehicle drivers because DS loves them all, we walk a lot and see the same guys everywhere, and they're all apparently suckers for a bit of toddler hero worship.)

I think treatment works could be a priority for water and sewage, but most of the guys work outside otherwise and are assigned to consistent teams to reduce risk, so they're actually much lower risk than you might think.

Like @Yummyoldbag the idea that vaccines should be distributed by individual worth or utility to society sits really uncomfortably with me and I think it's a horrible precedent to set - it also is likely to really inflame social tensions (see any thread on MN about who should 'really' be keyworkers). Personally I'd rather it was just done in order of age (since particular medical need should be dealt with in phase 1) - if data on transmission makes a case for particular groups as priorities then I can also see the logic of that, though I strongly suspect that they're likely to fall into that 'difficult to identify and effectively target' category if so.

I totally fundamentally disagree with such value judgements in terms of health care. Hard for me to articulate why as it is such a core belief. I will give it some thought

It is exactly the same argument as why we don't "lock up all the vulnerable people", and why we don't criticise a vulnerable person for going to the shops. We simply don't fucking judge people for their decisions, we support them to make better ones. Obviously that's an unpopular view, and the government and media are pushing you to judge the teenager who makes the decision that meeting their friend for a chat is okay. But it's not right.

For me, the priority order for not vulnerable is irrelevant because we should not be vaccinating not vulnerable while there are still vulnerable people in the world, but obviously they're foreign so we're not supposed to care about them.

@MRex

I think treatment works could be a priority for water and sewage, but most of the guys work outside otherwise and are assigned to consistent teams to reduce risk, so they're actually much lower risk than you might think.

I wasn't so much thinking of them being at particular risk, more thinking of how bad it would be if alot of them were sick.

@sirfredfredgeorge @Hardbackwriter @Yummyoldbag

Let's re-frame the question. What do you think priorities should be in the following 2 scenarios:
A) when we have an endless* and continual supply of vacc
B) when we have a limited supply that allows us to vaccinate 30% of the population in the next 3 months and we don't know how much and at what rate we will have after that

*endless meaning a bit more than we can administer on a country level on a daily basis.

@MRex

That's really interesting *@ancientgran*, we had 2 refuse collectors from different lorries (one plastics and one garden waste) catch covid back in April but the guys said none of the rest of their teams did, then 2 off sick recently from the same general waste lorry. They're all pretty good at hanging off the outside of the truck or wearing masks inside, but maybe it's the new variant again. We were all a bit worried about one of them in April because he's a really big guy and smoker, but he came back to work in the summer and has lost loads of weight since. (I spend far too much time chatting across the road with local vehicle drivers because DS loves them all, we walk a lot and see the same guys everywhere, and they're all apparently suckers for a bit of toddler hero worship.)

Ours were fine till I think it was late October or maybe November (2020 is a bit of a blur) and then it went through the depot. It is so hard to predict these things but it did make me think how bad it would be in hot weather. In our local town centres we have alot of old houses that are HMOs or converted to flats and no space for bins so their rubbish is "hopefully" kept in the house for a week and then put out in bags. Of course the seagulls attack the bags and make a mess. Imagine having 4, 5, 6 bags of household waste sitting in your house.

I don't have any connection with refuse or sewage workers but I respect what they do and value it.

@sirfredfredgeorge
the priority order for not vulnerable is irrelevant because we should not be vaccinating not vulnerable while there are still vulnerable people in the world
It sounds very noble to consider other populations first. However it's in my opinion impossible in practical terms:

1. The proposal suggests vaccinating billions before the final 20 million UK. Instead of waiting a few months to do UK jabs first. How do we tell an exhausted NHS workforce that they must carry on dealing with critically ill younger people for an extra couple of years so that everyone in their 50s in every other country gets a jab? What about the rest of the NHS backlog waiting for the pandemic to end to get our treatment, we don't matter either?
2. How can the UK pay into Covax when we can't resurrect the economy for years longer by establishing full manufacturing capability and reopening hospitality, because everyone has to continue with the same restrictions due to high viral load risks?
3. What does the UK government answer in court cases brought by bereaved families of those in their 40s with young children? Sorry, we had the vaccines in our hands butt thought people in other countries were more important, even though a government in office is supposed to take protection of its people as a first duty.
4. The taxpayers in this country have paid for research, paid for vaccines, paid for new facilities; withholding them would lead to intense anger and any involved politicians would lose their posts.
5. No country has ever set up global equity with other medicines, food, unemployment benefits etc. Why start with this at a time of great economic crisis? First put on your own mask, then help.
6. To be equitable, those at greatest risk should be vaccinated. People can argue all day that there are cases and deaths unconfirmed in other countries, but given the proportionally high number of cases and deaths actually reported by the UK, on the face of the figures issues we are a high priority country for vaccination.
7. Withholding vaccines now would cost more, in winding down then stopping schemes and restarting them. What happens with new vulnerabilities if you don't keep it going e.g. when someone gets a spleen removed or has cancer treatment, do we open a new pack of vaccines and let them have one or wait until we have enough newly vulnerable? What happens with a new variant needing boosters, so we reestablish everything and just hope it's the same group who are vulnerable? What if the new variant has a worse impact on children, do we wait until enough children die before we change the policy?

All in all, I disagree even more strongly than I did when I started writing this post.

@MRex
we used to know the trash men, the fire fighters, police officers and the ice cream man very well when ds was little too :)

Thought this was a pretty good summary of the LFT issues and Mina vs Deeks:

unherd.com/2021/01/what-covid-tests-can-we-trust/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups%5B0%5D=18743&tl_period_type=3

@sirfredfredgeorge
I missed two important ones:
8) The cost of treatment, economically active years lost and life years lost for that proportion of under-50s in the UK who get long covid in the period their vaccine has been delayed while overseas vulnerable people get vaccinated.
9) Many countries who have vaccines are not moving along quickly to get them into arms and have had significant wastage. Is the proposal to give vaccines to healthcare ministers in each country and hope for the best, or to fully manage roll out? Because the costs of the second option are way beyond covax "support" aims, but would be necessary if UK citizens are having to wait for their vaccines. Particularly while those UK citizens are watching perfectly healthy Germans, Israelis, Canadians and Australians getting vaccinated but they've been told to wait for every last vulnerable person in the world.

@TheSunIsStillShining
it's lovely how friendly they all are to excited little boys isn't it!

@MRex
Yes. And from a far they mostly seem grumpy and in reality you are right: they mostly are lovely and nice ppl :)

We had overhead electric cables come down in a storm, cables split, sparks everywhere and fire brigade came out. Chaos ensued and couldn't get the kids to bed. Eventually about 11 pm a fireman came to the door to tell us to stay out of the back garden till the following morning when they would be back. I had an 18 month old in my arms and an almost 4 year old next to me. I thanked him and asked how Fireman Sam was. He shouted up to the fire engine, "Can Fireman Sam give the kids a wave?" An arm appeared and waved. You can't believe how excited the kids were. The smallest act of kindness can give such pleasure.

@sirfredfredgeorge and @mrex The Economist had a good talk on these issues last week, might have been for subscribers only, but it’s worth a listen and explores the developed nations assumed vaccine surplus in more depth - it was called “Covid Vaccines your questions answered”

Thanks @ATieLikeRichardGere, really interesting.

As an aside, I think covid deniers have drifted seamlessly into anti-vaxx, but in case not this was an important quote I'd like to keep: "the false-positive rate of PCRs must be very low, because for a long time in the summer, thetotalnumber of positives – false and true – wasaround the 0.05% mark. The false positive rate must be lower than that"

"the false-positive rate of PCRs must be very low, because for a long time in the summer, thetotalnumber of positives – false and true – wasaround the 0.05% mark. The false positive rate must be lower than that"

Whilst I don't want to argue that the false positive is higher, 'cos I don't think it is, but that is not a definitive statement if the reason for false positive is detecting of past infection, since then he rate would be proportional to the number of past infections.

Yes, it's useful to be clear about the two types of false positive)

1. Has never been infected - incredibly rare
2. Had an infection some weeks ago and bits of dead virus give a positive result - some previously infected individuals only may be affected for a limited period of time, more common.

I really agree with @MRex but I also think that if we're talking about ensuring vaccines for all as an altruistic gesture of a symbol of shared humanity then COVID is an odd place to start when there are many much deadlier diseases in many parts of the world, some of which could be eradicated but haven't been. Global programmes for COVID are largely self-protection for richer nations who don't want the risk that comes back to them of letting the virus run rampant in large parts of the world, and if we acknowledge that then of course they want to vaccinate their own populations first.

I also thought the article on PCR and lateral flow tests was very insightful.

Re: PCR false positivity - the 0.05% actual positivity number must have come from ONS surveys (the lowest positivity point for standard PCR tests in England was 0.9%). However, if I remember correctly, ONS checks their positive results four times. I am not sure it is fair to assume standard PCR tests have got the same level of accuracy as ONS.

Article in Daily Telegraph about some councils offering their staff vaccines before the agreed priority groups.
It's behind a pay wall so here is an extract.

On Tuesday, areas with plentiful supply of vaccines appeared to be ignoring the Government's guidance. Cambridgeshire County Council and Peterborough City Council this week secured vaccinations for children's services staff working in secondary schools, many of whom are understood to be working from home. According to the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation priority list, only social care workers looking after clinically vulnerable adults and children are currently eligible for jabs.In a joint letter seen by The Telegraph, the two councils also told around 28,000 early years nursery workers that an agreement for vaccines had been secured with the local NHS.

It goes on to say the council revised the plans after the Government intervened.

.

NHS England reporting 1027 hospital deaths - highest ever daily report from them - so it's going to be another absolutely horrible total of deaths today, sadly

It is really hard I think to define categories, absolutely obvious choices would be teachers, Tas (who do lots of the personal care jobs in schools) police, fire service and social workers especially people going in to peoples homes or working with children and people who are disabled. But then retail and travel Bus drivers and supermarket staff are the obvious ones but will there then be a back lash from people in non essential retail. .. I think it is going to be really hard to draw the line. I work in one of the above public sector groups and I wonder if their is any sense bumping up older front line people further so police and teachers etc over 50 before other over 50 year olds but I don't know if that is an option.

38905/1820