Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Oh God, when are the deaths going to decrease?

Just to be clear vaccination number is the cumulative number of first jabs. It’s going at quite a daily pace but not quite at the multi million daily level

Deaths are almost a hundred down from this time last week so while still awful it does look like the numbers have begun to turn round.

@Quarantino

Oh God, when are the deaths going to decrease?

Sadly with the seven days starting 29 Dec being the peak week in terms of confirmed cases, by end of this week or early next I’d hope to see these terribly sad death numbers starting to fall back.

Any particular theories on fluctuating vaccination numbers?

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with toady's data release should anyone wish to check the cases/rate per 100k in their council.

As always, you can click the columns to quickly sort the data in the table... particularly handy (I find) when you click the county column as it lets you see the situation in all the councils in your county quickly.

....especially given tiering decisions will almost certainly be at county level when they are reintroduced.

JVT at the briefing today - should be some plain speaking

Hospital admissions for England have dropped to 2,648 on 25/1 (vs 4,134 on 12/1). London on its own decreased from 977 on 6/1 to 478 on 25/1.

The latest reported number for patients in hospitals for England is 30,846 (27/1) vs 34,336 (18/1 - the likely peak).

@ATieLikeRichardGere

Any particular theories on fluctuating vaccination numbers?

Supply? They were down at the start of last week which was thought to be due to GPs not knowing how many doses they would receive until the start of the week and then spending Mondays setting up appointments. Today's is down on a week ago though, but they did say supply was "tight" Doesn't look like to can optimistically expect vaccination numbers to go on rising every week sadly.

Case numbers falling very nicely though at present.

@boys3

JVT at the briefing today - should be some plain speaking

Yes I appreciated his school answer

Yes I appreciated his school answer

Yes, I liked his answer as well.

He was also upfront on the probable impact of vaccines. Pretty much everyone agrees there will be impact on transmissibility. Based on their discussion papers, SAGE is worried that vaccinated individuals might stop following the rules but it is not the reason for not telling people the truth. JVT was honest in his answer.

@ATieLikeRichardGere

Any particular theories on fluctuating vaccination numbers?

I didn't watch the press conference but this, from the guardian summary, sounds like it's pretty much solely about supply.

Did we just get some older cases dumped in generally or is County Durham being slower than to report than usual? I'm sure some of the (older than 5 days out) figures just got bumped up for us.

Supply it is then.

Which cements why I feel unnerved about all disagreements going on with vaccine supply and who gets what.

@littleowl1 I love being able to sort by county, used to take me ages to look at all of Devon. Very happy with South Ham/Teignbridge/Torbay (my neck of the woods) all back into 300s for their rank. Not sure what is going on in West Devon with rising figures, I wonder if there has been a big outbreak somewhere. Glad to see Plymouth coming down now.

Thanks for all your work.

Disclaimer:
This may have some bits wrong, please correct if I've misremembered, but the gist of it is right I hope:

One of the things clarified by Prof Spiegehalter on More or Less today was that the daily average number of deaths is currently around 1100, which in fact is lower than the first peak's, which was around 1400. (I think??)

He also pointed out that because fewer were tested in Mar /April there were fewer confirmed Covid deaths. I had thought in terms of the ones which occurred in hosp which were diagnosed by a doctor, but many happened outside hosp. I think that's what he said anyway....

Obviously this relates to excess deaths.

but they should care about the NHS collapsing because that affects us all and so them directly - but that's only true to an extent. People at the lowest personal risk from COVID are also mostly the lowest users of the NHS (if we set aside small children, who aren't making their own choices on compliance).

there was a post on another thread by a student which basically said I'm throwing my future away to save a service i barely use and by the time I am old enough to be a heavy user it won't exist anymore anyway. So I don't think talking about saving the NHS necessarily resonates with enough people to work.

@JanuaryChill

Disclaimer: This may have some bits wrong, please correct if I've misremembered, but the gist of it is right I hope:

One of the things clarified by Prof Spiegehalter on More or Less today was that the daily average number of deaths is currently around 1100, which in fact is lower than the first peak's, which was around 1400. (I think??)

He also pointed out that because fewer were tested in Mar /April there were fewer confirmed Covid deaths. I had thought in terms of the ones which occurred in hosp which were diagnosed by a doctor, but many happened outside hosp. I think that's what he said anyway....

Obviously this relates to excess deaths.

In the first peak the highest 7 daily average was around 950. The first peak maximum (by date of death) was 1131 (+ Wales who for some reason seems to have come off the data), so the figure of 1400 looks wrong to me.

We can't see todays daily average as it takes some time for the data to go through, but I'd say 1100-1200 looks about right for 5 days ago.

Thanks, that sounds more like it, yes!

@JanuaryChill

Disclaimer: This may have some bits wrong, please correct if I've misremembered, but the gist of it is right I hope:

One of the things clarified by Prof Spiegehalter on More or Less today was that the daily average number of deaths is currently around 1100, which in fact is lower than the first peak's, which was around 1400. (I think??)

He also pointed out that because fewer were tested in Mar /April there were fewer confirmed Covid deaths. I had thought in terms of the ones which occurred in hosp which were diagnosed by a doctor, but many happened outside hosp. I think that's what he said anyway....

Obviously this relates to excess deaths.

Correct - the but being, this "peak" is going on much longer. It took longer to go up, and it will take longer to go down, so we are already ahead of the total numbers for the first peak, which was much more "peaky" if you forgive the bad English.

The deaths are likely to plateau and then decrease in the next week or 2; it is going to get better x. And we have vaccines!

#askJVT

Major Q&A session with him on channel 4 news this evening - so programme has started, JVT on shortly

The peak of this second wave has definitely built up more slowly than the first wave - so more deaths in total compared to the highest daily figure. But I don't know why they're thinking it will fall more slowly - the lockdown now is similar to spring, plus we have an element of herd immunity (particularly among those most exposed), and vaccines rolling out - with the age group who comprise most of the deaths mostly now vaccinated. So surely we'd expect deaths to fall faster this time?

Thanks @boys3 Just switched on

@MarshaBradyo sorry but the school answer was dreadful. I like JVT usually. Yet again inferring teachers don't pick it up from the kids but the parents do. Very disappointing answer and defies science as far as I'm concerned.