Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thanks for the JVT heads up. He is very good.

[quote Monkeytennis97]@MarshaBradyo sorry but the school answer was dreadful. I like JVT usually. Yet again inferring teachers don't pick it up from the kids but the parents do. Very disappointing answer and defies science as far as I'm concerned. [/quote]
I agree. Defies common sense! No one's claiming that parents who get infected probably got it somewhere else. Why claim this about teachers?

JVT been on One Show and now on C4. Busy day.

[quote Monkeytennis97]@MarshaBradyo sorry but the school answer was dreadful. I like JVT usually. Yet again inferring teachers don't pick it up from the kids but the parents do. Very disappointing answer and defies science as far as I'm concerned. [/quote]
I quite agree, his answer made no sense. How can can children transmit it to their families, but not to other adults confined to the same room breathing the same air and often up close for 5 hours a day ? It might be what you want to hear but it doesn't make it true. They either transmit it or they don't.

[quote Monkeytennis97]@MarshaBradyo sorry but the school answer was dreadful. I like JVT usually. Yet again inferring teachers don't pick it up from the kids but the parents do. Very disappointing answer and defies science as far as I'm concerned. [/quote]
I appreciated the

• children reassurance
• level of risk reassurance to staff

But I did think hmmm at the children to teacher line. I can’t recall exact words would have to see it again

It’s a shame because it’s the increased risk to teacher that would be the issue - and if that is not the case it’s reassuring

The amplification of cases is when dc are in the community

They were saying that there isn't evidence of increased vulnerability for teachers, but the evidence has been equivocal at best.

They either transmit it or they don't.

I thought JVT's answer was clear:

• They transmit but less
• The older the children the higher the risk of transmission

JVT has not said that children cannot infect teachers but he believes on average teacher to teacher transmission is more likely than the transmission from a child to teacher.

Children are more likely to infect their families because all the research shows that the risk of secondary transmission is the highest within households. Most parents tend to cuddle their children, give them occasional kiss every now and then, play, hug and laugh together. All this significantly increases the risk.

@wintertravel1980

They either transmit it or they don't.

I thought JVT's answer was clear:

• They transmit but less
• The older the children the higher the risk of transmission

JVT has not said that children cannot infect teachers but he believes on average teacher to teacher transmission is more likely than the transmission from a child to teacher.

Children are more likely to infect their families because all the research shows that the risk of secondary transmission is the highest within households. Most parents tend to cuddle their children, give them occasional kiss every now and then, play, hug and laugh together. All this significantly increases the risk.

Ok that’s v helpful thanks Winter

Here he is, 1 min 12 secs of JVT:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55823064

He says we don't yet know if children transmit to teachers.

Of course, in general teachers don't get as close to children as their parents do (although special school staff and sometimes KS1 staff do deal with body fluids and might get bitten etc). However, what about the increased risk because of viral load, say from having 5 infected children in your classroom, as opposed to one child in the home? Is there a way to calculate the effect of this?

@JanuaryChill - that can't be effectively calculated, because it depends on the room (ventilation? size?), length of time, distance, how high a viral load each child has etc.

@Monkeytennis97 / @lonelyplanet - it's been shown a great many times that children simply catch it a bit less the younger they are, not knowing why doesn't change that. There have been suspicions about ACE3 receptors playing a part, though a long time ago. Simplistically it can be as simple as saying if you share a room with a sibling/ parent then they'll catch it, but sit quietly at the back of class then play outside and the teacher won't. The main difficulty is in rhetoric used, the need to understand that LESS doesn't mean that they can't catch or can't transmit the virus, but that the risk is thought to be different than the risk for adults in the same situation.
The bad news is that the new variant seems to be more contagious, especially to children, so old data might be useless at this point. Other bad news is that when infections are high in the community, teachers who have to share a class (SEN, nursery) or who are with teenagers (definitely can catch and transmit very well) are at a lot of risk from each other.
Answers aren't easy, I thought JVT was just doing his best to be clear.

he believes on average teacher to teacher transmission is more likely than the transmission from a child to teacher.

Yes, but he -and all scientists- have always consistently said this based on bugger all evidence. It would not stand up if offered on this thread by one of us. I think they think teachers go around licking each other. I can go a full week without going anywhere near a colleague, easily.

In amongst all the news yesterday about occupations deaths it was swept under the carpet that male secondary school teachers do ahve a higher death rate than the working age population and the PHS survey did establish that teachers have a high rate of infection. By continuing to lump together groups of teachers (except when doing mortality rates when TAs were removed) , he is being disingenuous. In fact on C4 just now he actually said something that was plain incorrect.

I think they think teachers go round licking each other

Oops pressed post too soon.

Love that phrase @Piggywaspushed.

Although your use of it makes me think there might be a vestige of truth in it.

What do we think of the start of Monday specimen date positives? They look pretty low at the moment, how do they compare to this point last week? I know people on here have the data...!

@boys3

I think they think teachers go round licking each other

Well , 2 teachers at the primary my kids went to are married, so... ;-)

@TeaInTheGarden

What do we think of the start of Monday specimen date positives? They look pretty low at the moment, how do they compare to this point last week? I know people on here have the data...!

Just about 10000 lower in England as compared with the numbers reported by Wednesday last week for Monday 18th. Actual posted a page or two back. Tomorrow will really show if Monday is maintaining that strong week on week drop

@swg1

Did we just get some older cases dumped in generally or is County Durham being slower than to report than usual? I'm sure some of the (older than 5 days out) figures just got bumped up for us.

It doesn’t look like much was older than 5 days - RP131 on Twitter does a helpful table every day and Durham mostly in the last 2 days

Well, now I come to think of it, there have been a few dalliances over the years...

he believes on average teacher to teacher transmission is more likely than the transmission from a child to teacher

If he believes this, he hasn’t any idea about the situation in schools, in the Autumn term, at least. The medical establishment seem to believe that pictures of socially distanced classrooms and nearly deserted corridors in schools represented reality. My GP and cardiologist were quite shocked when I described my working conditions (which were actually less risky than secondary, though still unsafe). They commented “totally irresponsible” and “it makes a nonsense of what we’re trying to do”.

I think they think teachers go round licking each other

Many people may not realise that children actually do this.

Thanks @boys3, missed that somehow! Good news though, fingers crossed for tomorrow.

@wintertravel1980

They either transmit it or they don't.

I thought JVT's answer was clear:

• They transmit but less
• The older the children the higher the risk of transmission

JVT has not said that children cannot infect teachers but he believes on average teacher to teacher transmission is more likely than the transmission from a child to teacher.

Children are more likely to infect their families because all the research shows that the risk of secondary transmission is the highest within households. Most parents tend to cuddle their children, give them occasional kiss every now and then, play, hug and laugh together. All this significantly increases the risk.

Yep this is it

Children 12 years and over can transmit like adults

Children 9/10 not so much

Children under 9 very low transmission. Saying that parents get physically closer for longer and share bathrooms etc. So would be more likely to catch something from a child.

In amongst all the news yesterday about occupations deaths it was swept under the carpet that male secondary school teachers do ahve a higher death rate than the working age population...

I actually think the ONS report says something different:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19relateddeathsbyoccupationenglandandwales/deathsregisteredbetween9marchand28december2020

Statement 1:

Of the individual occupations, it was only possible to calculate a reliable rate for secondary education teaching professionals, who accounted for 37.4% of the total number of deaths among all teaching and educational professionals (52 deaths). With 39.2 deaths per 100,000 males (29 deaths) and 21.2 deaths per 100,000 females (23 deaths), rates of death involving COVID-19 in secondary education teaching professionals were not statistically significantly different than those of the same age and sex in the wider population.

In other words, secondary school male teachers do not appear to run higher risk that the general working age population.

Statement 2:

Of the specific teaching and education professions, the rate of death involving COVID-19 in male secondary education teaching professionals was statistically significantly higher than the rate of death involving COVID-19 in professional occupations in men of the same age.

Secondary school male teachers appear to be at higher risk than other men in professional occupations which would include, for instance, lawyers and accountants working from home. It is a narrower group that has got the lowest risk of death according to ONS.

"Yep this is it

Children 12 years and over can transmit like adults

Children 9/10 not so much

Children under 9 very low transmission."

This is a data thread. I would like to see your data on this.