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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

996 replies

TheSunIsStillShining · 20/01/2021 01:09

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
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24
Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 27/01/2021 22:29

Go find it on a previous thread then. When the research on viral loads and shedding came out. I read posters on here talking about it with link.

Can't be sure but probably August/September or back May/June. I dip in and out of mumsnet because doom gets to you after a bit. Only ever last a month or two 😂

Sure someone on here can point you in the right direction if you can't find it. Old news and all. Miss bigchoc not being here. Seems to have vanished since my last stint.

Witchend · 27/01/2021 22:38

If it was September or before then the new variant has changed things anyway with regard children.

Piggywaspushed · 27/01/2021 22:47

But 39.2 per 100000 is pretty high. Thing is they seem not to know who to compare these teachers to....sometimes keyworkers, sometimes everyone, sometimes professionals.

That figure is considerably higher than female health care workers.

JanuaryChill · 27/01/2021 22:58

Here's a summary of the state of research in October, inc links to lots of research. NB when it talks about countries with few school outbreaks they all wear masks in classrooms, unlike most British schools:

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 27/01/2021 23:00

@Witchend

If it was September or before then the new variant has changed things anyway with regard children.
They made noises like the Kent variant had but so far there seems no proof of this.

More people have got it. So more kids got it. That will obviously happen. Especially if older teenage siblings are spreading ot around to each other. Then bringing it home.

Like more patients in hospital especially ICU. So more deaths due to pressure on staff, less nurses and doctors per patient etc

TheSunIsStillShining · 27/01/2021 23:20

Some info from Israel on children+covid

"Additionally, the strain was causing concerning levels of infection in children and young people, as well as serious illness in a number of pregnant women.

She said that “40% of illness is in children, a higher percentage than their part in the population… We see a rise in infections in ages 6-9, which is exactly the age group that is supposed to go back to school” when the tightened lockdown ends at the end of the month. “We’re monitoring it.”"
www.timesofisrael.com/virus-czar-with-covid-19-mutations-third-lockdown-may-not-be-israels-last/

and another source, similar data
www.jpost.com/health-science/with-more-kids-sick-with-covid-can-israel-re-open-schools-656791

I did a very light dig around for educational setting transmission, but all I could find was publications based on june-july data. So not relevant by any means.

But I did find a very good article in natgeo:
www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/we-now-know-how-much-children-spread-coronavirus/

Although I cannot understand why they keep citing the june/july data as proof to schools not being places of transmission....

OP posts:
TheSunIsStillShining · 27/01/2021 23:22

and about my pet peeve - long covid. some alarmingly high %s

twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1352328791662751745

1/ New #LongCovid prevalence figures by age and sex out by
@ONS
today. Prevalence of any symptom at 5 wks after positive test:
27% at age 35-49
26% at age 50-69
25% at age 25-34
18% at >=70
17% at age 17-24
15% at age 12-16
13% at age 2-10
21% males
24% females

2/ Estimated number of people with symptoms lasting 5-12 weeks in England in week commencing 27 Dec 2020 is 301,000.
-
I really don't understand who preventing this is not top priority on any/every agenda. It has the potential for huge repercussions later on wrt the economy. Not to mention anything else....

OP posts:
Witchend · 27/01/2021 23:25

If you look at some of the heat maps for the areas that had the new variant then the 5-9 age went up much further than the areas with similar rates in November which didn't have the new variant.

Compare the heat map for Wandsworth in December (new variant) with Blackpool in November (not new variant), as two examples. The difference in younger age categories is fairly obvious.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan
Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan
TheSunIsStillShining · 27/01/2021 23:32

@Witchend
and still many dispute the actual data or simply dismiss it.

OP posts:
Witchend · 27/01/2021 23:37

@TheSunIsStillShining

When I was looking at the heat maps, I wasn't specifically looking for that, I was looking simply to compare the Lancashire wave with the London one.
I went through a number of the heat maps for each area and very quickly you could see the difference. I chose those two, but could have chosen two different ones.

Witchend · 27/01/2021 23:51

[quote JanuaryChill]Here's a summary of the state of research in October, inc links to lots of research. NB when it talks about countries with few school outbreaks they all wear masks in classrooms, unlike most British schools:

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3[/quote]
Two quotes from that article:

But “we don’t actually understand the natural history of transmission in children, because we mitigate against it”, says paediatrician Fiona Russell at the University of Melbourne, Australia, who was involved in the Victoria school-outbreaks study. Children aren’t in a typical school environment — instead, they’re social distancing, wearing masks and following other precautions.
Which isn't the case in UK schools.

Another possibility is that children tend to transmit less virus because they are more commonly asymptomatic. In a UK study of 2–15-year-olds, up to 50% of infected children developed no symptoms
That would also mean that up to 50% of infected children won't get a positive test, meaning that we're missing more cases in those ages (and presumably more at the younger end) which will bring the numbers down.

Plus the article is from October which is well before the new variant began to show.

JanuaryChill · 27/01/2021 23:52

Agreed

TheSunIsStillShining · 27/01/2021 23:54

An interesting R&D project from french Paul Boyé Technologies - makers of ffp2 masks.
5 yrs ago they set out to develop a virus killing (anti viral) ffp2 mask to help with healthcare associated infections (HAI)*. It looks like they are in the final stage of testing it's safeness and it should be ready to go in about 6 months.

I get it's importance in HC settings and the whole idea, but it haven't filtered through my brain if I think it's a good think for covid or not.
What are your thoughts?

*In eastern europe I know that HAI is very high on the list of causes for deaths.... have no idea in western europe.

**sorry, no link to article as it's in hungarian, but here is the french youtube vid (which I don't understand, so hope that it's useful)

OP posts:
TrashedWarrior · 28/01/2021 07:08

I need to follow recent discussions more closely; I think re actual deaths in teaching we need to remember that it's a female heavy profession. Men are more at risk generally.

However, probably because I myself and a number of women I personally know have had ME type illnesses, I do wish they'd include more analysis of risk for long Covid and damage to lungs etc.

I appreciate we don't necessarily have the data due to time; but it's clear that it's starting to be evident that women can be equally or more affected by that.

Thanks for the data on long Covid. That's a big concern.

I also have an ongoing bug bear at how they're looking at the type of teaching post. Sen v mainstream for example.

Also re children, so many I know where the whole older family had symptoms and tested positive didn't test the younger symptomless children. Partly as the instructions say not to. Partly as many seem to be under the impression, as my neighbour was, that they couldn't get it Hmm

Nellodee · 28/01/2021 07:54

I wonder if someone here can help me understand something. I’ve just read a headline article in the guardian about how slowly cases are dropping according to both the imperial study and the ons survey. Yet the positive test numbers look to be dropping at a fantastic rate. What is the reason for the huge disparity?

icesnowrain · 28/01/2021 08:07

Regarding lateral flow tests, can anyone signpost to information about how false positives happen?

I'm sure I read on this thread that they will be reacting to small amounts of COVID due to earlier infection, but my friend thinks they can wrongly react to other coronaviruses.

I've looked through the info I can find but can't seem to find an answer.

Thanks for this thread and all the data/analysis

NuttyinNotts · 28/01/2021 08:07

The daily testing statistics include asymptomatic screening using lateral flow tests. These are being used in increasing numbers and are less likely to pick up infections than PCR tests, but also asymptomatic people are much less likely to be infectious than symptomatic people. The surveillance studies have remained constant over time, so give us a good picture of trends, but our national testing strategy has changed.

Firefliess · 28/01/2021 08:25

@Nellodee

I wonder if someone here can help me understand something. I’ve just read a headline article in the guardian about how slowly cases are dropping according to both the imperial study and the ons survey. Yet the positive test numbers look to be dropping at a fantastic rate. What is the reason for the huge disparity?
It's the React study being quoted today in the news. Data from 6-22 January and they're saying it's not fallen much during that time. But I'm not inclined to pay it much attention because it's the same study that a week ago claimed cases were rising in the basis of them being higher in early January than they were in late November. I think the study authors live in a bunker and don't look at any other data other than their own survey. Grin The numbers in the survey are quite small if being used to measure changes in rates over short periods of time.

Testing, on the other hand, has not been significantly rolled out to new groups nor restricted in the last few weeks, and provides data up to the last few days, and shows clearly a fall in cases. We can even see this coming through in a fall in hospital admissions in the last few days. The Zoe study is also much larger than React so better at recent trends and it also shows significant decline currently.

The React study might be useful for knowing actual prevalence rates (though may include people as positive who have in fact recovered in the last few weeks) but it is not the best data source for seeing clearly whether rates are rising or falling.

ILookAtTheFloor · 28/01/2021 08:28

Ive read comments from the React people on the BBC saying cases dropped more sharply in lockdown 1- is this really the case as hardly anyone was tested then? How can they say that with confidence 🤔🤔?

Nellodee · 28/01/2021 08:33

I understood the initial React survey appeared to have completely missed a "hump" and you're right, it does cast doubt on the more recent study. The article also mentioned the ONS release that goes up to 16 January, but again, I think it's plausible things could have improved quite a lot from that point.

Thanks, I will continue to be pretty hopeful at this stage, I think.

MRex · 28/01/2021 08:41

@icesnowrain I'm sure I read on this thread that they will be reacting to small amounts of COVID due to earlier infection, but my friend thinks they can wrongly react to other coronaviruses.
You are correct, though lateral flow tests are less likely to do this than the more sensitive PCR tests, the main criticisms of them have been that they don't pick up enough infections rather than false positives.

Tests are validated by testing against other coronaviruses to ensure this can't happen. Your friend got this opinion from Facebook conspiracy theorists, you can share this as a clear summary and generally useful website for the friend, but conspiracy theorists rarely listen so it may not be worth wasting your time: "A Covid-19 diagnostic test won’t pick up other coronaviruses - Full Fact" fullfact.org/online/PCR-test-coronavirus/.

MRex · 28/01/2021 08:43

@Nellodee - the increase in household infectivity made the initial "drop" longer and slower than expected. I also think it's old data, time will tell.

icesnowrain · 28/01/2021 09:59

[quote MRex]**@icesnowrain* I'm sure I read on this thread that they will be reacting to small amounts of COVID due to earlier infection, but my friend thinks they can wrongly react to other coronaviruses.*
You are correct, though lateral flow tests are less likely to do this than the more sensitive PCR tests, the main criticisms of them have been that they don't pick up enough infections rather than false positives.

Tests are validated by testing against other coronaviruses to ensure this can't happen. Your friend got this opinion from Facebook conspiracy theorists, you can share this as a clear summary and generally useful website for the friend, but conspiracy theorists rarely listen so it may not be worth wasting your time: "A Covid-19 diagnostic test won’t pick up other coronaviruses - Full Fact" fullfact.org/online/PCR-test-coronavirus/.[/quote]
Thank you:-).
I did see that link but it refers to PCR tests, would the same apply to lateral flow?

MRex · 28/01/2021 10:06

@icesnowrain - lateral flow tests are verified by PCR test, so it's effectively irrelevant.
Look - issues with Innova discussion, it's all about false negative not false positive "Covid-19: People are not being warned about pitfalls of mass testing | The BMJ" www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n238.

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/01/2021 10:19

The REACT study tests the same people each time right? Doesn't this mean that they become more and more susceptible to false positives from dead virus? How are they controlling for it?

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