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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

996 replies

TheSunIsStillShining · 20/01/2021 01:09

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 27/01/2021 00:09

It is interesting.

Would it be better to say right folks the hospitals are over run like we warned you. Save the NHS etc. You need to follow the rules.

Or

The Kent variant seems to be killing more people. Be scared. You need to follow the rules.

Morally you need to say the first. However if you think people are ultimately selfish. You say the second.

Not that I think the government were sure either way. Just me pondering.

JanuaryChill · 27/01/2021 00:24

Why can't they spell out what Save the NHS was always about - if you /your dad/grampy/girlfriend gets seriously ill with Covid OR is in a bad car accident and ends up needing intensive care, be aware the nurses won't be able to pay as much attention to you/him/her as they usually would. Alarms on machines might go off and no one comes running immediately because there is no one at that second....

Hardbackwriter · 27/01/2021 01:02

@JanuaryChill

Why can't they spell out what Save the NHS was always about - if you /your dad/grampy/girlfriend gets seriously ill with Covid OR is in a bad car accident and ends up needing intensive care, be aware the nurses won't be able to pay as much attention to you/him/her as they usually would. Alarms on machines might go off and no one comes running immediately because there is no one at that second....
The problem is, the argument is always made that people may not care about getting COVID all that much, because they're low risk, but they should care about the NHS collapsing because that affects us all and so them directly - but that's only true to an extent. People at the lowest personal risk from COVID are also mostly the lowest users of the NHS (if we set aside small children, who aren't making their own choices on compliance). There's a reason the example given is so often 'if you're in a car crash', because that could happen to anyone - but people know it isn't terribly likely to happen to them. People do not generally organise their lives around the possibility of them having a bad car accident (you can tell this from how they drive).

I am personally extremely invested in hospital capacity - I'm going to give birth sometime in the next few weeks, I have a toddler who has needed A&E a couple of times. I also had suspected cancer that required exploratory surgery in 2019 and received amazing and almost frighteningly swift care from the NHS for this, so the 'what if you found a lump' argument also resonates with me. But when I was 25, say, I had never actually been in an A&E and I hadn't even seen a GP for anything but repeat pill prescriptions for years. Now, I think and hope I would still have wanted to protect the NHS then for the good of others/society, but it would have been hard to convince me that my personal risk was high.

So whether you're emphasising COVID itself or the risk of NHS collapse then the least at risk demographics overlap, and your options with them are either to emphasise altruism (don't kill granny/don't let grandad die unnecessarily of a heart attack because they're out of beds) or emphasising that the risk to them is real even if remote (people in their 20s have died of COVID/you could be in a car crash). And my guess is that neither is as effective as the messaging is for people who feel that they are actually personally at significant risk.

MRex · 27/01/2021 06:53

This is scientific opinions on the Nervtag reviews: "expert reaction to suggestion made in Downing Street press conference that the new UK variant may be linked to higher mortality than the old variant (NERVTAG paper also now published) | Science Media Centre" www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-suggestion-made-in-downing-street-press-conference-that-the-new-uk-variant-may-be-linked-to-higher-mortality-than-the-old-variant-nervtag-paper-also-now-published/.
Second comment - Bristol did the new variant comparisons were made based on genome testing for available stats.
First comment - Increases in proportion of care home deaths would also independently show the effect separately from hospital over-run stats. I don't know if they do or not, but that would be an independent metric and this comment suggests they do.

MRex · 27/01/2021 07:40

New variant independently looks to be causing more deaths. Overwhelmed ICU can also cause more deaths, and clearly there's a general need for more hospitals and more staff regardless of pandemics. There is also this article from Reuters suggesting that mortality rate is higher in ICU in this wave (I suggest anyone feeling sensitive today avoids it): "On Britain's COVID-19 frontline, medics and patients fight for life | Article [AMP] | Reuters" mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29Q0OD.
Fewer people needing ICU due to treatment is a great upside; it lowers overall death rate, allows more people to be treated and speeds up recovery for individuals. It means though that those in ICU are starting from the point of being extremely unwell.
I don't know how to unpick all the factors, it would need clever statistical research of actual patient types, but the picture to me isn't a clear one of ICU overrun causing deaths. To be clear, it does and it would lead to more deaths, I just don't think it's clear to me if that's the leading cause for the high deaths right now.

peridito · 27/01/2021 08:56

Apologies to pop up again with a question not related to the current discussion -RL interferes with catching up .

Does anyone know how ,in Israel ,they are determining the effectiveness of the vaccine ? Is it based on hospital numbers ,retesting everyone/a sample of everyone who has been vaccinated ,self reporting ?

MRex · 27/01/2021 09:06

Israel has done some antibody testing on specific groups: "Israel finds single dose gives high resistance" amp.ft.com/content/4d9fe80d-e604-4bbe-b0f8-fd4b8df9b7f1, so some articles will cite that information.
The efficacy though is based on positive test results; they aren't testing everyone constantly (that would be too hard even in a tiny country) but are collating figures aligned with vaccination dates when someone is symptomatic and gets a test.

peridito · 27/01/2021 09:14

Thanks MRex .I
was wondering because I thought it was an interesting point that there might be a tendency for those vaccinated to not bother to get tested if they have symptoms ,particularly if mild .And I guess some testing positive might have been incubating the virus pre vaccination .

Which I suppose all just goes to show that data is important and will take time to collect .

MRex · 27/01/2021 09:17

It's possible of course, but then we know asymptomatic / mild cases may not get tested whether vaccinated or not, so it may not be huge numbers.

Details on the UK's MHRA monitoring programme are here; it reads to me like we should get some first dose reports in a few weeks for both and some second dose for Pfizer in a few weeks too. "COVID-19: vaccine surveillance strategy - GOV.UK" www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-surveillance-strategy. Exciting if so, I like the more positive side of the data from time to time.

sirfredfredgeorge · 27/01/2021 09:25

Increases in proportion of care home deaths would also independently show the effect separately from hospital over-run stats

Would it? care home residents after 10 months of isolation vs care home residents with an average of less isolation (still a great many isolated of course) No idea of the impact, but there certainly is a potential confounder in there comparing now to march, the residents are not the same.

MRex · 27/01/2021 09:29

It doesn't need to compare with March, it just needs comparison of which variant the genome tests found.

peridito · 27/01/2021 09:56

possible of course, but then we know asymptomatic / mild cases may not get tested whether vaccinated or not, so it may not be huge numbers

Of course ! That never crossed my mind ,thank you for pointing out.

JanuaryChill · 27/01/2021 10:09

Loads of useful stuff on More or Less, R4, this morning - as per usual!

oneglassandpuzzled · 27/01/2021 12:44

Thanks, just got it on BBC Sounds, January. Horrible snake image on the app though Shock

ChimaeraEgg · 27/01/2021 12:55

It is increasingly looking like they are going to reopen schools after half term, at least for some years. Do the numbers support this?

Firefliess · 27/01/2021 13:12

@Chimaeraegg - case rates are definitely falling, and possibly faster than you might have expected, given what we know about the new strain. Vaccination numbers are also on target with 10% of the population now vaccinated. Hospitals still under huge strain and numbers flattened off but not yet fallen - but we always knew that would lag behind cases. Nurseries are still open and about 20% of primary age children still in school (keyworkers children) so I would think they could look at opening up schools in 3-4 weeks time (ie after half term) to some year groups (eg infants) and hope to keep the R rate below 1.

ChimaeraEgg · 27/01/2021 13:13

I am in two minds about whether to send my reception aged child back or not tbh. I have just been classified as CV due to kidney issues. And we are in London.

BigWoollyJumpers · 27/01/2021 13:54

Lots of discussion today about reaching the 100k mark, unsurprisingly. Came across these graphics for excess deaths. Interesting that our (UK) reporting seems pretty on point. Other countries less so, although to be fair, most of Western Europe are also doing a pretty good job.

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

MRex · 27/01/2021 13:54

@ChimaeraEgg - it's best to wait and see nearer the time how the numbers are rather than feeling pressured to decide now. Kidney disease can be problematic with covid, but you should be included for a vaccine soon, which might also affect your decision. Ask your GP if it's a recent diagnosis, to make sure they have taken it into account on your NHS record.

JanuaryChill · 27/01/2021 13:57

Boris has announced in Parliament that 8 Mar is the earliest date we'd start to reopen schools. Depending on what we then know about vaccination effectiveness re hospitalisations, largely.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 27/01/2021 14:42

@BigWoollyJumpers great link. Astounding disparity for Russia and Mexico.

Hardbackwriter · 27/01/2021 15:45

That's fascinating @BigWoollyJumpers (though of course the figures are also horrifying). The big gap in Spain is not that surprising (my understanding is that there has been little confidence in the methods they're using to count for quite some time) but Italy surprised me - since we saw such huge overwhelm of hospitals there I guess that perhaps they did have a disproportionate number of non-COVID but excess deaths?

It's interesting that both Germany and Denmark had such a large dip in deaths before COVID hit, presumably they had unusually mild winters or similar?

Wilma55 · 27/01/2021 16:28

1725 death

Wilma55 · 27/01/2021 16:29

25,308 infected

boys3 · 27/01/2021 16:31

Another awful though unsurprising death figure today 1725

But vaccination first dose 7.164 million

And cases overall 25308 added remembering Wednesday reporting picks up the initial bulk of Monday tests.

So in England

20454 cases for Monday 25th after 2 days reporting

Almost 10,000 less than the 30360 this time last week for Monday 18th

And lower again than the 33913 for two weeks ago.

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