Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

That is ds' nightmare day though grin

They did a "mental health welfare" day at the start of last term and he wanted me to tell the school his mental health was adversely effected by the mere idea of it.

That's a shame, GS goes to a boys' school and the teachers were very good natured about the stick they were getting, I think the one female teacher was a bit more reserved but generally they were having a real laugh. I went to school in the 60s and 70s and can't imagine a relationship like that with a teacher. I think the cane sort of made our relationship with teachers a bit strained.

I saw someone from Brazil being interviewed, sorry can't remember if it was a doctor or politician, and he was saying they were very disappointed that they had been guinea pigs for the vaccine but couldn't get any, they obviously thought they would

I assumed they would get the vaccine too. It's wrong to test it there and then not supply them.
Had they bought any doses though or just assumed they would get them based on the vaccine being tested there? 🤔

From this article:- www.ft.com/content/3dbfe495-5947-4dd0-9f43-5edc5e6d6dc7

AstraZeneca insisted there was no “scheduled delay” to the start of shipments of its vaccines, but said “initial volumes” would “be lower than originally anticipated due to reduced yields at a manufacturing site within our European supply chain”.

@JamesAnderson
"My thinking on the Oxford vaccine is the main 62% efficacy figures come from there Brazilian part of the trial. The figures from the UK participants showed a 90% efficacy. (Albeit with a strange dosage regimen)

There has been a variant in Brazil they think evades previous antibodies."

This is a really good point, the Brazil trial was running right through October-November when the new strain would have been growing. Even if that were the case, more research would be needed to see how low efficacy is with that variant (because placebo group could be catching old and new strains).

I'm a little surprised Astrazeneca aren't setting up a vaccine creation hub in Brazil, they have sufficient scientists with vaccine expertise that I would have thought it possible. Perhaps they should have gone for some small enough amount of profit to make it worthwhile risking a few ventures like that.

This article from the AZ boss is very good on the EU supply issue and also on the lack of data on effectiveness of AZ in older people.

www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/

@JamesAnderson

I saw someone from Brazil being interviewed, sorry can't remember if it was a doctor or politician, and he was saying they were very disappointed that they had been guinea pigs for the vaccine but couldn't get any, they obviously thought they would

I assumed they would get the vaccine too. It's wrong to test it there and then not supply them.
Had they bought any doses though or just assumed they would get them based on the vaccine being tested there? 🤔

I don't think they made that clear, well not clear enough for me. I think it was on an early morning programme and I was trying to persuade GS to get out of bed for registration so I might have missed a bit.

I also heard that they are charging Africa 2.5 times what they are charging european countries. I ended up feeling quite depressed about it all but Trump might tell me it is fake news, hard to know sometimes.

Just did a search and this article www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-55699535 says they are waiting for the AZ virus so hopefully they will get it, I got it wrong about the Russian vaccine, it says they have the Sinovac from China.

@ancientgran - on a non profit basis, the costs to create and distribute the vaccine will vary for different countries. Many African countries will get vaccines via Covax, though it's harder for middle income countries like South Africa.

MRex thanks. I just wish there was enough that it didn't have to become the source of more upset.

That article is very interesting @eyewhisker. Really sets out the problems. Makes me even more cross with the EU though. Poor CEO guy, doing his best at no profit and gets nothing but grief!
And his point that the Europe say we want the world to be vaccinated but in practice demand more than their fair share despite being late to the party in the first place

@littleowl1 AZ results and earnings call is 11th Feb, so there will be a lot of questions from analysts then, if there’s nothing further released in the meantime
www.astrazeneca.com/investor-relations/events.html

@sashagabadon

That article is very interesting *@eyewhisker*. Really sets out the problems. Makes me even more cross with the EU though. Poor CEO guy, doing his best at no profit and gets nothing but grief! And his point that the Europe say we want the world to be vaccinated but in practice demand more than their fair share despite being late to the party in the first place

They've not even approved the az vaccine yet 🙄

Thanks @Eyewhisker. That was very interesting.

twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1354095352534740992
Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing
^MORE DEATHS WHEN ICU OVERLOADED. We always feared it but now we have proof that #COVID19 patients have 2.35x the risk of death when ICU is over 100% load, compared to

Sasha - I agree the Commission’s procurement has not been great - too slow to agree supplies and not tight enough on terms.

A key difference is that the U.K. contract seems to have stated that the U.K. had to be supplied first and there could only be exports if the U.K. supply was met. Let us be thankful that the EU did not agree similar conditions with the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine which was developed in Germany and is manufactured in Belgium.

I am glad that U.K. supplies are high, but we are very lucky indeed that the EU did not copy the UK’s export ban. It does make all the ‘outrage’ today about vaccine nationalism a little hypocritical.

Sanofi's own Covid vaccine has had a setback & they're not using all their capacity to produce that, so they're going to use their Frankfurt plant to help supply 100 m doses of the Pfizef/BionTech vaccine, but only from July:
www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/01/26/sanofi-to-produce-100-million-doses-of-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-ceo-says.html?

@sashagabadon

That article is very interesting *@eyewhisker*. Really sets out the problems. Makes me even more cross with the EU though. Poor CEO guy, doing his best at no profit and gets nothing but grief! And his point that the Europe say we want the world to be vaccinated but in practice demand more than their fair share despite being late to the party in the first place

hmmmm... You lost me at the poor ceo part. then again at the no profit part. from the article "it's less than expected" - well, you didn't set expectations clearly, did you? "But the UK contract was signed three months before the European vaccine deal." So, this poor ceo put profit first and even though they were confident and had good preliminary result, held off on upscaling capacity - because a piece of paper wasn't signed. If he was truly that nice guys who wants to make the world better he would have taken the risk at that point. From a business pov if you upscale in UK -so took the risk, then it only makes sense to take the same risk in the EU.

Also, I don't have a clue if selling the license itself falls under the no profit blanket. If I remember correctly they already sold it to SSI in india. And are SSI under any contractual obligation to not profit from it? (hope so)

Don't get me wrong, I have tremendous admiration for all the scientist and almost everyone involved. All companies that now have a proven working vacc have doe more than a marvelous job!

I just don't like it when it's framed into a narrative that they are saviors. No. They might not make profit of this vaccine, but I am sure that along the supply chain and in general they are no better/worse than any other big pharma.

@Eyewhisker - it sounds to me from the Robert Peston thread that it's not so much about export bans as it is about who got in first. The UK decided to opt out of the EU procurement process (this wasn't cause of Brexit, we had the choice to be in if we wanted) and go it alone. This looks to have been a good call and meant we had vaccine deals sown up earlier. Clearly a company gets to work delivering its first orders first. Governments can potentially override deals by placing export bans, but I don't think they'd do so lightly, and not - for the EU - when the costs of getting into a tit for tat battle would be so costly. Astrozenica are still supplying them with a lot of vaccines. They wouldn't want to lose that.

I found that interview with Pascal Soriot very interesting. I learned a lot about how the contracts and production work. He seemed very forthcoming with info - the kind of answers you never get from a politician. Hope they can scale up their European production ASAP.

@Eyewhisker the UK has not imposed an export ban. There is a list of drugs whose export is restricted due to covid, but the covid vaccines aren't on it.

The UK has signed a contract with Astra Zenaca, who are an independant company. The EU signed a contract with the same company three months later, in the knowledge that AZ had committed to supply it's earlier customers first.

Likewise, the UK signed a contract with Pfizer long before the EU did.

For the EU to state that their order should be prioritised over orders placed earlier would be outrageous. Particularly when part of the reason they're not getting supplies now is because they're still dithering over whether to approve the vaccine at all.

It isn't just about order of contract purchase, but how that links with the time aspect. There are elements of delivery effort and cost that do not come from Astrazeneca but from "partner" facilities. The UK government wasn't handed capacity by Astrazeneca, it invested to increase supply capacity to meet its own targets. The UK invested significant money and time into facilities, the supply chain and the logistics around them all. So did the EU; in Belgium, Italy and Germany. Everyone was working the same way to get to peak domestic delivery volumes and then all excess goes to other markets, "put on your own mask first" is a kinder way to express the plan than export bans, which would imply vaccinating everyone before any sharing takes place and isn't the plan. The issue is that the EU started its effort 3 months later, so nothing could be done with the third party set-ups for a few months. While the UK has a slower than desirable start the delays are in the past here but the EU still needs to work through issues. Once those are fixed, the EU has the capacity it expects. So it's a reduction in capacity for a short time and then they will have all they need. The desire to pinch other vaccines to plug the hole caused by their own delay is understandable, but it's not justifiable.

@RedToothBrush so that might go some way (all the way?) to answering our debate about whether the high death rate is because of the new variant or strain on ICU - at least I think that was what we were wondering?

[quote JanuaryChill]@RedToothBrush so that might go some way (all the way?) to answering our debate about whether the high death rate is because of the new variant or strain on ICU - at least I think that was what we were wondering?[/quote]
Yep.

Germany had most in Europe 29.2
Italy had about 12.5
France 11.6
Spain 9.7
UK 6.6
(Figures March 2020 Forbes).

Once you hit a critical mass of too many cases you have a problem. And the UK has had particularly high case rates then followed by an even more acute problem with bed numbers.

So poor case management (lockdown and restriction strategy) combined with low bed numbers is a perfect storm. It means your restrictions have to be spot on, and tighter than elsewhere.

The UK also has higher inequality rates which only make the problem even worse.

But we did know this already. The study really only proves what is common sense and not difficult to work out.

In fact the UK is actually doing amazingly well given the pressure its under...

The new variant may not be more deadly. I suspect this is where the 'moderate level' of evidence comes in and why experts have downplayed the correlation.

Politically its very difficult to put out this as an alternative theory as to why the new variant appears to be more problematic.

Ah. Yes.

I've been wondering why the NHS top bods kept being interviewed and saying "It's beyond awful, but don't worry we'll cope"!