Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@ancientgran hopefully he won’t have to wait much longer. Most of the NHS staff I know have had at least their first vaccine (across various disciplines and cities), so they will soon make their way to him

We’ve had snow on the ground across most of greater Manchester since 27th December (with a few days of torrential wind and rain thrown in). I haven’t seen any lumpy figures that imply any kind of testing backlog.

(I could add a comment about northerners being more hardy but I don’t have any data to back it up )

I think you might have something there ceeveebee. Here (down south) I had to persuade my mother to drive to her vaccination yesterday and not cancel because of a couple of inches of snow... on main roads... that were gritted...

[quote Notmulan]@sosotired1 but local data is older data isn’t it? Reports from 5 days prior[/quote]
7 day case rate data (for all areas) is based on 5 day old data, but the daily cases sosotired was referring to are the same as the overall data - up to date from numbers announced today.

Am I missing something re some of recent posts? I thought the vaccination reduced severity of the illness rather than stopped people catching it, so it's not surprising that people are testing positive after vaccination (albeit some now will likely have caught it before the jab).

@sosotired1

PatriciaHolm, I just said exactly the same. Daily cases here have dropped to last summer's rates... but in the south with snow and lots aren't venturing out. I expect the numbers will rise by the end of the week sadly...

sorry, to where?? Last summer it was less than 1k/day in the whole of the UK.... now it's way more

The evidence isn't yet available to prove that vaccination reduces transmission, but there is a clear expectation that it will.

The emphasis in public messaging is that it stops people being ill because of the need to maintain lockdown.

The snow effect will be interesting to see if there is any real impact or not.

Was last Friday a snow day? Don’t think it was where I am, although here we are possibly a tad more resilient to the white stuff

Last Friday is on day 4 of reporting, another 880 cases added today (England this is) taking total to 26486, day 4 for Friday 15th was 36009 by comparison. So Friday just gone likely to end up around 9000 lower than the previous one.

Thursday 21st 28514 and likely 98% reported now. Thursday 14th was 38563.

My but is more around the observation from little owl et al yesterday as the falls are largely driven by the mass of councils with really high rates. A few weeks back we had over 30 councils with a rate over 1000 per 100,000 now we have none thankfully. Yet still only 2 councils with a rate below 100; and the number below 200 is still not that great.

A lot of the really hard yards are still to be made.

Just under 18,000 cases added to England today. A daily figure barely lower than the total number of cases added in July.

I was referring to daily cases where I live being in the teens last summer. Today they are teens again for my area. Not very scientific I know, just my observation that there seems a big drop today.

@ceeveebee

We’ve had snow on the ground across most of greater Manchester since 27th December (with a few days of torrential wind and rain thrown in). I haven’t seen any lumpy figures that imply any kind of testing backlog.

(I could add a comment about northerners being more hardy but I don’t have any data to back it up )

@ceeveebee no data needed for hardiness; it’s an indisputable fact

Useful summary of the German press claim about the 8% effecacy of Oxford jab in the over 65s here fullfact.org/health/german-astrazeneca-8-percent-handelsblatt/ Seems they did indeed mix up the proportion of trial participants with the effecacy

@Firefliess
yay! sort of. I do want to see what Handelsblatt has to say.
It still feels (and have felt since the beginning, so nothing new) that the AZ vacc is A)less efficient B)very messy trial data C)from B-->my personal trust is at a very low point, almost as low as towards Sputnik. And I'm sure I'm not the only one. which is a shame because trust in clear cut, proper data based science should be a beacon in all the shit that is going around. And any and all who are misusing it should be punished. And those who are enabling them for political reasons or financial gain should get double punishment.
There is always an element of subjectivity in how each individual sees the world, but established facts (grass = green) help us navigate through it.

The table on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release.

You can check cases in your council and also cases per 100k etc.

Data on hospital admissions, cases and patients on MV beds is also linked from the menu.

Folks quick question

Anyone aware of some intersting/accurate commentary on the astr zeneca supply situation with UK v Europe.

I fell we are getting highly "spun" headlines and I am struggling to source anything sensible outside of the mainstream media.

I suspect, this is a fairly above-board situation (legally or ethically) and both sides of the media are spinning it for readership and brinkmanship.

Anyone aware of twitter/youtube accounts giving some alternative analysis and insights into this issue other than the mainstream media ?

I like to get a broad range of well-read views in my media stream but stuggling on this topic to do so.

Frankly, I have been hugely impressed with some of the political and current affairs analysis you can get on YouTube channels lately - far beats TV!

My thinking on the Oxford vaccine is the main 62% efficacy figures come from there Brazilian part of the trial. The figures from the UK participants showed a 90% efficacy. (Albeit with a strange dosage regimen)

There has been a variant in Brazil they think evades previous antibodies.

Could it be that the Brazilian data shows efficacy against this new variant as well as the original virus?

I'm not sure about the South African data and how that fits in. Although there's also another variant there too.

What are your thoughts?

I'd be interested in that too @littleowl. But I think you might struggle to find any reliable data. It seems the vaccine manufacturers have all signed NDAs with the various governments, who themselves are all spinning things all over the place so very hard to disentangle.

In some ways I'm surprised they ever left it to to private markets to allow manufacturers to sell to whom they like in the first place - seems such a politically charged issue, and one which would inevitably lead to governments trying to pull all the levers at their disposal. I'm not too worried about it from a UK point of view as it seems we're likely to be a net exporter of vaccines, so will probably be ok whatever happens. Increasing shit if you're in a country that's reliant on commercial agreements being honoured to get hold of any vaccine though.

@James I don't think either arm of the Astrozenica trial had anything to say about the new strains, as they weren't around/weren't known about when the trials were reporting their findings.

The only thing that is a slight worry with the Astrozenica trial is that they didn't have a lot of older people in it, so if the vaccine was a bit less effective in older people (which is plausible, given what we know about older immune systems) we wouldn't know exactly how much less effective it was. They did test people's immune responses though and found the older people to mount a good response so it's likely to be at least almost as effective as in younger age groups.

@JamesAnderson

My thinking on the Oxford vaccine is the main 62% efficacy figures come from there Brazilian part of the trial. The figures from the UK participants showed a 90% efficacy. (Albeit with a strange dosage regimen)

There has been a variant in Brazil they think evades previous antibodies.

Could it be that the Brazilian data shows efficacy against this new variant as well as the original virus?

I'm not sure about the South African data and how that fits in. Although there's also another variant there too.

What are your thoughts?

Interesting. I have never thought of that or heard anyone else suggesting it.

Worth a ponder I think.

[quote lurker101]@ancientgran hopefully he won’t have to wait much longer. Most of the NHS staff I know have had at least their first vaccine (across various disciplines and cities), so they will soon make their way to him [/quote]
Thank you. I suppose I shouldn't worry now, I mean he's had covid and must have some immunity. Just because your baby shaves and is 10 inches taller than you you don't stop worrying about them.

@littleowl1
It’s mainstream and not sure if it’s what you’re looking for and you may have already seen this but Robert Peston’s view is the supply issues is purely due to the 3 month delay in ordering vs the UK:
twitter.com/peston/status/1354019140084916225?s=21

@ceeveebee

We’ve had snow on the ground across most of greater Manchester since 27th December (with a few days of torrential wind and rain thrown in). I haven’t seen any lumpy figures that imply any kind of testing backlog.

(I could add a comment about northerners being more hardy but I don’t have any data to back it up )

When I lived up north (Lancashire on the coast) everything stopped for half an inch of snow. Tbf that only happened about half a dozen times over 18 years living there. My dbros school closed at the forecast of snow at least couple of times (they didn't get it)

We were the area that was glaring at the news saying "thousands of schools across the country have been closed due to snow" and we didn't even have a flake. It was very traumatic.

@sosotired1

I think you might have something there ceeveebee. Here (down south) I had to persuade my mother to drive to her vaccination yesterday and not cancel because of a couple of inches of snow... on main roads... that were gritted...

On the other hand my almost 75 year old disabled husband woke me at 3.30 am the other day to tell me it was snowing and asking me to help him dress (he can't do it all himself) so he could go out in it. I got him sorted and went back to bed, he was amazed I didn't want to go out and play. I truly wonder if he will ever grow up.

@JamesAnderson

My thinking on the Oxford vaccine is the main 62% efficacy figures come from there Brazilian part of the trial. The figures from the UK participants showed a 90% efficacy. (Albeit with a strange dosage regimen)

There has been a variant in Brazil they think evades previous antibodies.

Could it be that the Brazilian data shows efficacy against this new variant as well as the original virus?

I'm not sure about the South African data and how that fits in. Although there's also another variant there too.

What are your thoughts?

I saw someone from Brazil being interviewed, sorry can't remember if it was a doctor or politician, and he was saying they were very disappointed that they had been guinea pigs for the vaccine but couldn't get any, they obviously thought they would. I think they have bought the Russian vaccine.

Don't know how true it is but I did feel sorry for them.

So much upset over the vaccine, obviously a precious commodity.

@Firefliess Yes good point on NDAs. Although I am utterly stunned that the CEO hasn't released a statement clarifying. The silence is deafening. But i guess he is tied in legal knots and a PR s**t show.

Jeez - I'd love to get on a AZ shareholder call - wonder when the next one is scheduled.

The reality is that I simply do not trust the mainstream media to run a story clarifying the "real" reason especially if its a pretty benign, non-inflammatory operational issue.

They would much rather leave the last word as a loaded story pitting UK against Europe. In fairness to BJ this eve, I thought he was spot on with his tone and messaging on the whole debacle - cooperation, working together, vaccine supplies open for everyone etc etc.

Although I doubt the media reported that in their headlines either.

People delivering sensible, moderate messages in the "spirit of cooperation" are just too boring to be reported on these days - they don't sell papers or get online readership.

It drives me nuts! It leaves one dismissing most of the headlines as the very worst soundbites of the day and not at all representative.

AZ being a case in point I bet!

Anyway rant over!

Oh thank you @Loftyloft

Good old Peston! He is about the only one I have any time for lately! And he is dreadfully under-reported IMO.

Looking forward to delving into that link now. Thank you!