Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Not me @SansaSnark I have young people all around me falling apart due to being out of school, and parents who can't work as their kids aren't at school. I'm desperate for a schools to remain a priority and somehow open without risking the health of out wonderful teachers.

I totally appreciate though that everything is subjective and there is not right POV.

@Chaotic45

Not me *@SansaSnark* I have young people all around me falling apart due to being out of school, and parents who can't work as their kids aren't at school. I'm desperate for a schools to remain a priority and somehow open without risking the health of out wonderful teachers.

I totally appreciate though that everything is subjective and there is not right POV.

It's not my point of view either, but it's a point of view of an increasing number of people I know.

FWIW, I think we could have schools return on a rota basis (which would help with mental health) and still have other things open over Easter.

I don't want to derail the thread, and I've talked about it on the children's mental health thread, but I don't think school reopenings are a magic bullet for mental health- last term was really crap for a lot of students too.

I was impressed with GSs online lessons today. School obviously having a push on mental health, lots of chat about how people were coping, music being played and lots of joking and messing about. Probably not a top day education wise but it was quite fun even listening at a distance.

@ancientgran

I was impressed with GSs online lessons today. School obviously having a push on mental health, lots of chat about how people were coping, music being played and lots of joking and messing about. Probably not a top day education wise but it was quite fun even listening at a distance.

That is ds' nightmare day though

They did a "mental health welfare" day at the start of last term and he wanted me to tell the school his mental health was adversely effected by the mere idea of it.

Things seem a bit quieter right now so in the hope that I'm not interrupting and that someone might have a view ,I'm reposting from yesterday

"I know it's too early to ask but I keep wondering about how quickly some level of protection might be conferred by the Pfizer or Oxford vaccines .

CoffeeandCroissant's post at midday today linked to these articles
www.timesofisrael.com/how-well-does-the-vaccine-work-israels-real-world-stats-can-be-globes-guide/

and I wondered what people thought about them shedding light on the "how long before partial protection "question .

the articles suggest

the vaccine curbs infections by some 50 percent 14 days after the first of two shots is administered

and that it has seen a 60 percent reduction in coronavirus infections three weeks after the first shot is administered

among the comments on the articles there was a suggestion that the results might be skewed by a tendency for vaccinated people not to bother to get tested for virus symptoms .

Am I right in thinking that there is some knowledge about how long it takes for antibodies to be produced once exposed to covid ? Would that give any clue to the length of time before one of the vaccines we are using in the UK offer some protection ? Or is that not relatable ?

I've read this www.healthcareitnews.com/news/emea/four-types-covid-19-vaccine-snapshot and although I probably have a very simplistic understanding ,I can see there are different types of vaccine .Does anyone have any views on whether some types might result in an earlier response than others?"

Published today for England's figures:

Tested positive for COVID-19 at time of death - 875
A positive test result for COVID-19 was not received but COVID-19 is mentioned on their death certificate - 34

Does this mean around 1,000 cases for the UK? I'm not an expert on the date thread!

@peridito anecdotally I know three NHS frontline staff who tested positive 7-10 days after their first vaccine. All feel poorly but ok. All confirmed via PCR test.

It's been sobering to fine this out.

boys3 ~50% of p2 tests being lateral flow tests seems insanely high

Data from the Pfizer trial showed immunity kicking in from about day 12, at 90% rising to 94% by day 21.

I'm not sure of the equivalent data from the Oxford one but think it's broadly similar. We would expect just as many people to catch Covid in the first 12 days as if they were unvaccinated (and more, if they assume they're instantly safe and change their behaviour accordingly) People catching it in this first 12 day period does not mean the vaccine didn't work - it means they caught Covid before it had a chance to (and possibly even were incubating it before receiving the vaccine)

@perdito on the Oxford/AZ vaccine, PHE concluded this:

“In the case of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, PHE said, “High protection against hospitalisation was seen from 21 days after dose one until two weeks after the second dose, suggesting that a single dose will provide high short term protection against severe disease . . . An exploratory analysis of participants who had received one standard dose of the vaccine suggested that efficacy against symptomatic covid-19 was 73% (95% CI 48.79-85.76%).”

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n18

[quote Chaotic45]@peridito anecdotally I know three NHS frontline staff who tested positive 7-10 days after their first vaccine. All feel poorly but ok. All confirmed via PCR test.

It's been sobering to fine this out. [/quote]
You would not expect to have any protection from the vaccine within 10 days.

My sister (nurse) tested positive in a routine test 13 days after her first jab (which probably means she picked it up a couple of days before). It's just the luck of the draw.

She had a sore throat and felt a bit bunged up for a few days, but is now fine. Just sitting out her isolation (14 days where she is.)

Some research I was looking at yesterday (can't find right now) showed most symptomatic cases were around the 5.7 days mark (although did show infection up to day 14). That means it's highly likely that people showing symptoms at 13 days are more likely to have caught it after they were vaccinated... which should mean they have some protection and likelier a less severe case.

I wonder if the combination of vaccine plus a symptomatic case after vaccination might confer more immunity later on....

Dashboard in process of being updated
Cases 20,089 (40% less than last Tuesday by reported date)
Deaths 1,610 (slightly lower than last Tuesday)

Sorry - 1,631 deaths, slightly higher than last Tuesday!

Latest hospital admissions for England = 2,824 (22/1) vs 4,134 at the peak (12/1).

@ceeveebee

Dashboard in process of being updated Cases 20,089 (40% less than last Tuesday by reported date) Deaths 1,610 (slightly lower than last Tuesday)

Good re cases

Cases look good but I am a little concerned that the weather over the past couple of days will have been suppressing numbers going for a test, just as it has affected vaccines. I wouldn't be surprised if we get some catch up over the next few days.

PatriciaHolm, I just said exactly the same. Daily cases here have dropped to last summer's rates... but in the south with snow and lots aren't venturing out. I expect the numbers will rise by the end of the week sadly...

That's a big drop in hospital admissions over the last week. Maybe the first sign of vaccination starting to work? Along with impact of lockdown in case numbers too of course, but it's quite a sharp drop starting on 20 Jan.

The flip side to people not venturing out to get tested is that they also won't be venturing out for other reasons so lockdown is that little bit tighter in snowy areas.

That's a big drop in hospital admissions over the last week. Maybe the first sign of vaccination starting to work?

Or maybe the number of people in hospital for non-covid reasons is now low enough that in hospital transmission is no longer a significant driver?

I'd imagine please who don't want to venture out to drive through testing sites will mostly order a postal test instead. So we may see lab based tests and case rates rising a bit over the next few days. Today's figure is really low (compared with last few weeks) but Tuesday's figures are often quite low as they're reporting people who got tested over the weekend.

@sirfred Having vaccinated the NHS staff should help with in hospital transmission though too.

@sosotired1 but local data is older data isn’t it? Reports from 5 days prior

[quote Firefliess]@sirfred Having vaccinated the NHS staff should help with in hospital transmission though too. [/quote]
I can only wish they had vaccinated the NHS staff. If my son doesn't get it soon I may burst, not data but I fear it might be true.