Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

There are 363,000 staff in early years settings and 1.3m kids, so averaging under 100 cases per day is really really low. "Main findings: childcare providers and inspections as at 31 August 2020 - GOV.UK" www.gov.uk/government/publications/childcare-providers-and-inspections-as-at-31-august-2020/main-findings-childcare-providers-and-inspections-as-at-31-august-2020.

That said, early years setting are not open from 24th December to 3rd January to enable reporting of cases that could have been caught in that setting, the vast majority (or all?) close for the Christmas break. Reopening with infections within the setting takes us to the next weekend 8th. So why are all those late December cases included that can't link to settings, it doesn't make sense?

Does the primary ONS line dip during holidays?

The secondary seems quite responsive to number changes but primary seems quite flat regardless?

Will see if I can get one

Here

If you click “more information about this data” it tells you
“Reported coronavirus (COVID-19) notifications by registered early years and childcare settings
This data is published fortnightly. It gives the number of registered early years and childcare providers reporting one or more confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) by week.”
I read that as being the number of settings rather than the number of cases but it’s not clear

@ceeveebee
Thanks. It says "See more information about these transparency data", so I assumed it was some policy document on the actual data transparency. Bad choice of words from them and lack of thinking from me. Perfect combo....

So annoyed the 8% story got out there

"That said, early years setting are not open from 24th December to 3rd January to enable reporting of cases that could have been caught in that setting, the vast majority (or all?) close for the Christmas break. Reopening with infections within the setting takes us to the next weekend 8th. So why are all those late December cases included that can't link to settings, it doesn't make sense?"

Early Years settings include daycare nurseries and childminders. Many were open during the Christmas holidays.

@MarshaBradyo

quite unbelievable!

@MarshaBradyo

So annoyed the 8% story got out there

not sure this is right. From the Lancet:

"Interim efficacy results were available and are reported for two of the four ongoing trials (from the UK and Brazil) based on cases occurring within approximately 4 months of follow-up in 11 636 participants, the majority of whom were aged 18–55 years (10 218 [87·8%] participants), white (9625 [82·7%] participants), and female (7045 [60·5%] participants). "

Meaning that there were ~1400 ppl aged over 55 in the trial. That is ~13%. Not 8.

Why is it too much to ask of journalists to do their jobs correctly?
There might be a case of that 8% being true, but without any context, references it's just someone pulling numbers out of their arse.

Also from the lancet
" The limitations include that less than 4% of participants were older than 70 years of age, no participants older than 55 years of age received the mixed-dose regimen, and those with comorbidities were a minority, with results for that subgroup not yet available. "

Based on this info I cannot understand how MHRA approved this:

• to be given to 55+
• potentially with comorbidities
• not even mixed dose, but extended dosage

This is a catastrophe waiting to happen imo.

@Tanith - Sorry, but that's not correct. Most nurseries are closed weekends, bank holidays and the week between Christmas and New Year, a tiny number may open for the two days between but that is unusual and not necessarily available for all attendees. Pre-schools and school nursery/ reception classes obviously close for a few weeks in each holiday plus half terms. Check out even the big groups like Bright Horizons, Monkey Puzzle etc for yourself to see holiday dates. I have a toddler, and round here the small nurseries are more popular plus a couple of chains, I know nobody who had a toddler in daycare because they were all closed.

Meaning that there were ~1400 ppl aged over 55 in the trial. That is ~13%. Not 8

The claim was over 65 not 55.

[quote MRex]@Tanith - Sorry, but that's not correct. Most nurseries are closed weekends, bank holidays and the week between Christmas and New Year, a tiny number may open for the two days between but that is unusual and not necessarily available for all attendees. Pre-schools and school nursery/ reception classes obviously close for a few weeks in each holiday plus half terms. Check out even the big groups like Bright Horizons, Monkey Puzzle etc for yourself to see holiday dates. I have a toddler, and round here the small nurseries are more popular plus a couple of chains, I know nobody who had a toddler in daycare because they were all closed.[/quote]
Even if closed though, they would have been monitoring cases as parents would have to report to them over the closed period (that’s certainly true for primary schools, we were asked to notify school of any positive cases for the 7 days after school had finished)

@sirfredfredgeorge

Meaning that there were ~1400 ppl aged over 55 in the trial. That is ~13%. Not 8

The claim was over 65 not 55.

^ yes.

@ceeveebee - ok, then clearly I don't understand the point of tracking "early years cases" if they track anyone as an "outbreak", regardless of them not even attending a setting within the period in which they got infected and got symptoms. If anyone has a clue why that's useful I'd be interested.

Just a thought, are private nurseries getting lateral flow tests for staff like state funded LA ones would be, as they're usually linked to a school?

I ask this as my son's private nursery had a big outbreak before Xmas; 9 staff in total over two weeks had symptoms and positive tests. Some children but they (rightly) stopped telling us due to gdpr.

Luckily no one badly affected. All v young staff.

MRex I am a childminder. Your area may have closed nurseries, but it doesn't follow that all settings were closed, as you previously stated.

We also had to report cases, even if we were closed. I had to report children who became ill: they hadn't attended over Christmas.

Private nurseries and childminders are not being provided with lateral tests. They may have bought their own, though.

[quote MRex]@ceeveebee - ok, then clearly I don't understand the point of tracking "early years cases" if they track anyone as an "outbreak", regardless of them not even attending a setting within the period in which they got infected and got symptoms. If anyone has a clue why that's useful I'd be interested.[/quote]
In the case of primary schools, we had to notify school if any child tested positive between the end of term (18 December) up to 25 December. I assume this is because if they tested positive in that time frame, then they may have been infectious before school ended and so their classmates would need to self isolate

So I would assume the same for early years - that if nursery closed on 24 December, parents would need to notify their setting if their child developed symptoms or tested positive in the few days following.

On face masks and new variants, I thought this was interesting. Germany and Austria making higher grade masks compulsory on public transport.
twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1353427612593483777

Early years providers also have two weeks to tell Ofsted that they've had a (or more) cases, so reports should refer to the last 14 days but not necessarily the last 7, as you'd assume from a weekly figure

Meaning that there were ~1400 ppl aged over 55 in the trial. That is ~13%. Not 8

The claim was over 65 not 55.

Fair point, but doesn't really change the rest of the post - as in how did this go through MHRA?

Even if closed though, they would have been monitoring cases as parents would have to report to them over the closed period (that’s certainly true for primary schools, we were asked to notify school of any positive cases for the 7 days after school had finished)

I would also suspect that parents would be less inclined to test if the child can't go to nursery anyway. I certainly know of a couple of secondary school aged children whose parents decided as they couldn't go anywhere anyway they'd just assume it was and wouldn't get tested.

@TeaInTheGarden

All this doom talk of schools not going back till after Easter- surely this would be an absolute disaster for the tourism and hospitality industry who must surely be counting on being open by Easter hols? (Assuming of course that they do NOT open anything else before schools) We have a caravan holiday booked for the school hols in April and there will be so many people desperate to do the same! That just be a huuuuuuge incentive to open up by then. That’s my little nugget of hope I’m holding on to anyway....

Also- do we think the government will take into account results on vaccines from Israel as they come in? Write regard to reducing transmission. They have so far said they don’t know about this (obviously) but the data will obviously come from Israel before here- maybe that will give them a bit of confidence to open up if they start to see evidence it reduces transmission there.
Fingers crossed it does of course.

Sorry, I usually just lurk on this thread but wanted to comment because I live somewhere very touristy. This isn't data related though!

A lot of people local to me are hoping schools don't go back properly before Easter- but are hoping they are allowed to open in the Easter holidays, like Summer last year.

Summer last year was very good, all things considered, but because Easter was lockdown and October half term was not very good (things were open but no-one seemed to want to travel/go out and lots of people had to cancel due to self-isolation), businesses had a very short season last year, and they are desperate for some cashflow.

The fear is that if schools reopen too soon, then other businesses won't be able to open over Easter, or if they do, there won't be many people able to come because they will be isolating/fearful.

I know the government have said schools first all the way through, but I think a lot of small business owners are hoping they will change their minds!

Completely forgot to post these p2 positivity breakdowns yesterday. For which given my current Groundhog Day existence i have no real excuse.

So for 7 day periods reported to 4th, 11th, 18th and 25th January, and shown in that order: LF percentage of total P2 tests reported, and then PCR only test positivity.

Starting with LFs percentage of all P2s

England 10 / 15 / 37/ 48

London 13 / 30 / 36 / 46

East mids 10 / 30 / 36 / 47

East 11 / 29 / 32 / 45

North east 7 / 24 / 34 / 45

North west 27 / 50 / 44 / 51

South east 12 / 31 / 40 / 51

South west 8 / 30 / 36 / 48

West mids 16 / 35 / 38 / 48

Yorks Humber 12 / 30 / 34 / 45

And then for PCR positivity

England 19.4 / 20.1 / 14.8 / 13.1

London 28.0 / 26.7 / 22.0 / 19.5

East mids 16.0 / 18.1 / 12.9 / 12.8

East 19.5 / 20.2 / 13.9 / 12.4

North east 16.0 / 17.6 / 11.5 / 10.4

North west 17.5 / 20.9 / 15.6 / 13.8

South east 19.3 / 19.1 / 13.9 / 12.0

South west 11.3 / 13.5 / 9.4 / 7.9

West mids 19.4 / 21.5 / 16.5 / 15.2

Yorks Humber 14.2 / 15.3 / 10.4 / 9.7

Summer last year was very good, all things considered, but because Easter was lockdown and October half term was not very good (things were open but no-one seemed to want to travel/go out and lots of people had to cancel due to self-isolation), businesses had a very short season last year, and they are desperate for some cashflow.

October was madly busy where I am, every day seemed like an August bank holiday and numbers rocketed the following week.