Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@littleowl1

hi everyone, just wondering what everyone's thoughts are on the increased transmission abilities of this new variant.

I'm surprised rates aren't falling faster. Many local councils I know well, which aren't urban, don't have large hospitals (but perhaps hospital outbreaks are allocated to home address?) or large workplaces requiring employee presence and are still recording fairly sizeable daily cases. And doing so every single day.

I appreciate lockdown doesn't seem to be as tight as last Spring - BUT it is still pretty tight in these councils - IMO.

This lockdown seems to have got cases to dip, for sure, but now we seem to be after hitting a "steady state" of moderately high infections continuing.

Any thoughts on this?

I think that the large dip was the effect of a lot of things being closed over Christmas and we're now starting to see the effect of a lot of things opening back up. If this lockdown is actually enough to keep R under 1 then we've been really lucky.

More positive news on the efficacy of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine from Israel. twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1353775452830240770?s=21

However, worrying rumours on the effectiveness of the Oxford/AZ vaccine in the over 65s. There were very few of this group in the Phase III sample presented in the U.K., so approving it for over 65s here was a bit of a stretch/based on antibodies only, not results in a Phase III trial. The German press is reporting only 8% efficacy in over 65s, which would be disastrous if correct. I hope it’s just that only 8% of the sample was over 65.

We will soon be able to do relative efficacy in the U.K. for real. A much higher proportion of NI care homes seem to have got pfizer than AZ, whereas it seems the opposite in England.

As @TheSunIsStillShining mentioned at the bottom of her post I've often wondered why having better FFP quality masks available for the public has never really been explored.

I totally appreciate that at the beginning they were reserved for NHS staff only. They should always be prioritised, as should other critical front line workers.

However we are now a year down the line. If a concerted effort had been made this could have been made a priority.

I also understand that that need fitting etc but I still think we could have achieved it, or at least moved towards achieving it.

I know it Ellie have been a challenge but I still think that with our capability to adapt our manufacture this could have been done.

I don’t know the full study details (can anyone find it out) but the AZ stats are something due to 2 positive cases out of sample of approx 500. I presume the control possibly would expect approx 2.2 people to be positive in that timeframe, hence the 8%.
However-
Sample is very small
What are the details on the two positives - how long after having the vaccines did they get positive tests - what dosing regime were they on.

Whilst it’s easy to completely dismiss it as EU sour grapes on vaccine supply, or equally be very worried on any effectiveness, we clearly need more information and a bigger sample.

I think the AZ reports are concerning either way - either very concerning if correct - or near to correct ( hopefully unlikely). But actually equally pretty depressing/concerning if incorrect ( although obviously less so!) if playing politics like this has already happened and could decrease confidence in vaccines.

I also find the EU’s approach moving to threatening vaccine protectionism extremely concerning ( whatever the rights and wrongs of their dispute with AZ).

Sorry that wasn’t data!

@littlestpogo I'm guilty of that with my last post too. Apologies.

@Chaotic45 I wear an FFP3 for work. It's not comfortable. It has filters that needs changing monthly. If it doesn't have changeable filters then it has a limited lifespan - no more than a few hours - after which it needs discarding. It can't be flung in the washing machine like my cloth masks

Both FFP3 and FFP2s need fit testing by law, which imposes a hurdle.

There is research (although frustratingly I can't find it - saw it back in the spring when we were looking into this at work) which predates covid showing an unfitted FFP2/3 is no more effective at protecting the wearer than a surgical mask. In essence contaminated air gets sucked in by the path of least resistance - round the leaky sides. They feel like they should be more effective, but the evidence available then was that they weren't.

I haven't seen any research on how well unfitted FFP2/3s protect others, for the simple reason that until Covid the only reason really you wore one was to protect yourself from industrial hazards. I would guess maybe? But whether it's enough to outweigh the disadvantages of decreased comfort and cost?

Suggestion here that they downgraded the efficacy due to few cases, which doesn't actually mean the vaccine wasn't working. Really odd situation if they actually don't have data to back this up (and I'm confused why nobody else would have that data if it exists): "expert reaction to reports from Germany that the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine has 8% efficacy in over 65s | Science Media Centre" www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-reports-from-germany-that-the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-has-8-efficacy-in-over-65s/.

@littlestpogo

I think the AZ reports are concerning either way - either very concerning if correct - or near to correct ( hopefully unlikely). But actually equally pretty depressing/concerning if incorrect ( although obviously less so!) if playing politics like this has already happened and could decrease confidence in vaccines.

I also find the EU’s approach moving to threatening vaccine protectionism extremely concerning ( whatever the rights and wrongs of their dispute with AZ).

yes it is worrying and potentially going to fuel the pro-brexit camp..

Novavax is close to being approved and apparently the UK will be dependendent on getting supplies from Germany. I think it might work the other way though, am guessing (not sure) that the EU will want some of the AZ that is made in the UK so in the best interests of everyone to come to some sort of agreement.

I can totally understand why for example the Belgians might be annoyed with Pfizer is made locally yet they can't get their paws on it. But I suppose it comes down to the exact details of the commercial agreements. And if someone ordered "first" (not actually sure if the UK did) then those agreements should be honoured.

@littlestpogo

I think the AZ reports are concerning either way - either very concerning if correct - or near to correct ( hopefully unlikely). But actually equally pretty depressing/concerning if incorrect ( although obviously less so!) if playing politics like this has already happened and could decrease confidence in vaccines.

I also find the EU’s approach moving to threatening vaccine protectionism extremely concerning ( whatever the rights and wrongs of their dispute with AZ).

It was just a newspaper though? In same way DM / Sun publishes provocative statements sometimes stretching it

If this was what the data said..would MHRA not have noticed? It all seems odd.

On face masks, maybe it would be more practical to focus on improving the quality of cloth masks to the 3 layer/ specific fabric guidance issued by WHO.

I wouldn't have thought that there would be enough time to render the Oxford data down to 8% confidently.
This article www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-vaccine-ge/germany-sees-rapid-eu-approval-of-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-idUSKBN294137 implies that Germany was looking to approve on 30th December, which isn't enough time for people to have had 2 doses and time for it to take.

I did wonder (dd was asking me about it last night and could only find the paper in German which I know almost nothing) whether they had looked at people who had caught it before the vaccine was properly active.

My other thought (not a medic) is that over 65s aren't a different species. They don't change their DNA on their birthday It seems to me unlikely that for under 65s it's over 50% then drops so much for over 65s.
Now perhaps we need to look at the cases for the under 65s in the trial. If they all over over 50, then perhaps that would be a sign of a potential issue. But surely they would have looked at that data.

I also think it's interesting that Germany has come out with it. They've got interests in the Pfizer, and so it's in their interest to dish it.

@TheSunIsStillShining unfortunately I do tend to agree with your timeline.

Ofsted has published the reported cases in Early Years settings and childcare up to 4th January:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955458/Reported_coronavirus__COVID-19__notifications_by_registered_early_years_and_childcare_settings.csv/preview

@MarshaBradyo - it was claimed it was briefed by various German politicians. Which is how stories usually work. Of course the paper could have also made this up/exaggerated but it seems unlikely

[quote littlestpogo]@MarshaBradyo - it was claimed it was briefed by various German politicians. Which is how stories usually work. Of course the paper could have also made this up/exaggerated but it seems unlikely[/quote]
Can you link to the source? From the politicians - ie names etc

This is a really bad report - as in misses information of what we are seeing data about
Just to clarify:

1. it's not cumulative.
2. Does anyone know if these notifications are about staff or staff+kids?

Sorry that sounded patronising and wasn’t intended!

But given the way the journalists doubled down when challenged they must have felt fairly certain on their source

@littlestpogo

Sorry that sounded patronising and wasn’t intended!

But given the way the journalists doubled down when challenged they must have felt fairly certain on their source

My experience is that the harder people double down the less sure they are.

The article didn’t name politicians - I don’t think there is an English translation. The journalist from Handelsblat does have a feed on Twitter:
mobile.twitter.com/washingtonski

I’m wary with ‘ministers report’ we get it a lot here

AstraZeneca story gets weirder
mobile.twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1353999453028577280

8% referred to the proportion of participants in that category??

Coincidence that only 8% of AZ test population was over 65 and the report that the vaccine is only 8% effective in over-65s? Misunderstanding?

I should add for me this isn’t about German politicians - I’m certain a similar thing could happen anywhere including here. But I do find it depressing.

@littlestpogo
which way does the handesblatt lean?
I was also surprised at die Bild being objective compared to how I remembered them being a shitty tabloid in the 80s/90s.