Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Alec thank you - I've been trying to find something like that for a while.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum thanks, I appreciate that.

hi everyone, just wondering what everyone's thoughts are on the increased transmission abilities of this new variant.

I'm surprised rates aren't falling faster. Many local councils I know well, which aren't urban, don't have large hospitals (but perhaps hospital outbreaks are allocated to home address?) or large workplaces requiring employee presence and are still recording fairly sizeable daily cases. And doing so every single day.

I appreciate lockdown doesn't seem to be as tight as last Spring - BUT it is still pretty tight in these councils - IMO.

This lockdown seems to have got cases to dip, for sure, but now we seem to be after hitting a "steady state" of moderately high infections continuing.

Any thoughts on this?

I know it's too early to ask but I keep wondering about how quickly some level of protection might be conferred by the Pfizer or Oxford vaccines .

CoffeeandCroissant's post at midday today linked to these articles
www.timesofisrael.com/how-well-does-the-vaccine-work-israels-real-world-stats-can-be-globes-guide/

and I wondered what people thought about them shedding light on the "how long before partial protection "question .

the articles suggest

the vaccine curbs infections by some 50 percent 14 days after the first of two shots is administered

and that it has seen a 60 percent reduction in coronavirus infections three weeks after the first shot is administered

among the comments on the articles there was a suggestion that the results might be skewed by a tendency for vaccinated people not to bother to get tested for virus symptoms .

Am I right in thinking that there is some knowledge about how long it takes for antibodies to be produced once exposed to covid ? Would that give any clue to the length of time before one of the vaccines we are using in the UK offer some protection ? Or is that not relatable ?

I've read this www.healthcareitnews.com/news/emea/four-types-covid-19-vaccine-snapshot and although I probably have a very simplistic understanding ,I can see there are different types of vaccine .Does anyone have any views on whether some types might result in an earlier response than others?

@littleowl1

I've been feeling similar. I just have a nasty feeling that unless we get a handle on this it's going to zoom up again very quickly. It's a bit like congestion on the motorway (which you can map the waves mathematically) where you slow down, even get stopped and then for no reason you're suddenly back up to full speed again etc.

I think part of the problem is people's reactions. I speak to people now and they're "cases are going down, it's going to be okay, back to school shortly..." without the fuller picture of the fact that actually the case numbers are far higher than in the November lockdown.

People are hearing that cases are dropping and are thinking we're back to September numbers, or all but, and are behaving accordingly.
People who in early December, were worrying and altering what they were doing because "numbers were rising" are now just hearing numbers are falling and being much less careful. Yet numbers then (in our area) were half what they are now.

@Witchend
no, I'm sw London.
I agree with you re:talking in absolutes. Without context the terms "rising" and "falling" are meaningless.
Like my reaction to my son's test result of 64%. I found it utterly horrendous, hounded him on what the hell happened. Few weeks later a chat with the undermaster* and it turns out that he was in the top 3 of the yeargroup.

I keep reminding myself on what my personal threshold is for me to think it's reasonably safe to go to eg the dentist. But so far everyone thinks I'm nuts.

daily funny: chat was about making sure the S will attend the 1 hr detention he got for turning off camera and not doing 2 hw. 5 mins into the detention and son comes out beaming: undermaster realized that it totally pointless to have him looking at how son is doing his hw.... didn't think this through ... :)

Test rates are way down the last 2 days (low 400k instead of over 600k), so I don't want to place too much hope in the lower figures in case it's a snow effect. I can't see positivity rates, can someone remind me how to identify them please?

I am perusing tab 10 on this and am rather shocked- and struggling to understand the justification why - they were excluded. Makes a huge difference to some occupations!

Can anyone account for why more people were dying than normal, Covid aside? I didn't think that was a general pattern.

@littleowl1 It looks to me that cases are falling quite fast in the areas that were hard hit by the new strain before Christmas - ie London and parts of the East and SE regions. But only falling very slightly in other regions - I think this is likely to be because of the element of herd immunity among the most exposed populations in the areas that were hit hardest. But in areas where 80% of people haven't had Covid the spreadability of the new strain means that the current lockdown restrictions

but perhaps hospital outbreaks are allocated to home address?

Yes, they are. Infections get allocated to the primary address of the person tested positive. For a hospital patient it will be the home address, for a long term care home resident it will be the address of the care home.

I would not worry too much about ups and downs in the numbers for low level local authorities. When the figures are under 100, they can be easily swung by transmissions in larger households. Upper level local authority trends are arguably more interesting.

Most of the regions seem to be on the downward trajectory although some are moving slower than others.

I didn't quite finish that last post.... In areas least affected this far, it looks to me that the current lockdown restrictions are only just enough to hold the R rate at around 1.

I can't see positivity rates, can someone remind me how to identify them please?

The positivity is on the "testing" page. It is not available for the UK and some nations but we can get it for England, its regions and local authorities.

Thanks, a swing up of positivity in the E and W Midlands, maybe a minor effect elsewhere. Better than I'd hoped.

@TheSunIsStillShining
Like my reaction to my son's test result of 64%. I found it utterly horrendous, hounded him on what the hell happened. Few weeks later a chat with the undermaster and it turns out that he was in the top 3 of the yeargroup.*

I agree with that. My dc know that when they tell me a result I'll ask how others have done. They thought I was being nosy until I told that in my 2nd year geography I got 53% and was 3rd in the form. In my 3rd year geography I got 86% and was 14th.
It's one of the problems of not giving form positions, which are, for obvious reasons out of fashion.

Can anyone account for why more people were dying than normal, Covid aside? I didn't think that was a general pattern

Not being sedentary has about a 75% risk reduction in death over a few year timespan, many more people have been sedentary over the last year.

Social isolation has an increased risk of death of about 50% over 1 year, large numbers of people have been isolated over the last year.

Of course, lockdown also reduces many other deaths, and the above stats are for normal times, people obviously change their behaviour in lockdown, so who knows if the research is still entirely valid, but being sedentary is terrible for deaths over a few year timescale.

@Witchend
It's interesting how 30 yrs ago, in another country it was common knowledge who got what grades in class, but even across the form. Now and here the kids have no idea how the others are doing and they are actively dis-encouraged to talk about it. And -according to my S- they comply for some weird reason. The tutors say because you should be only interested in how you are doing compared to yourself, but I really think that is bullshit.

@TheSunIsStillShining
I agree in some ways, however I've had uncomfortable conversations with a fellow parent who thought their dc was doing brilliantly until they set them and found they were 3/4 of the way down the sets. They were 100% convinced it was a mistake until they found that 3b was around the bottom grade awarded.
Equally well I spoke to another parent whose dc was in regular tears that they were the weakest in the class and weren't coping. They were well above the average in the form.

My girls always seemed to know whereabouts they were. Ds isn't really interested except in his own friendship group.

@Witchend - I have the same sense of foreboding. I feel, once restrictions lift, unless we have a sizeable proportion of the population vaccinated, this variant will take off.

@Firefliess yes agreed - for many of the councils I am following if looks like current restrictions are holding them at N r of about 1.

That said, I acknowledge there are massive drops in many very hard hit councils. I’m just wondering if we are going to see a higher overall “steady-state” than we might expect. It certainly looks quite possible in high “new variant” areas. Although not yet definite.

Thanks for clarifying the address allocation for hospital confirmed cases @wintertravel1980 I have been meaning to look through the docs on that so you have saved me a lot of time (thank you!)

Hmm. I am in Trafford and we have had drops of 25 percent over the last week, and the new variant was not the dominant strain here at lockdown.
I wonder if Trafford is doing well because it's relatively affluent, lots of middle class people working at home and getting stuff delivered.

@littleowl1
And I don't trust the government to lift the restrictions too soon.
I did look at the "teachers no more likely to get it" headlines and have a bit of deja vu from August and wonder if this is the beginning of pushing everything back as quickly as possible.

All this doom talk of schools not going back till after Easter- surely this would be an absolute disaster for the tourism and hospitality industry who must surely be counting on being open by Easter hols? (Assuming of course that they do NOT open anything else before schools)
We have a caravan holiday booked for the school hols in April and there will be so many people desperate to do the same! That just be a huuuuuuge incentive to open up by then.
That’s my little nugget of hope I’m holding on to anyway....

Also- do we think the government will take into account results on vaccines from Israel as they come in? Write regard to reducing transmission. They have so far said they don’t know about this (obviously) but the data will obviously come from Israel before here- maybe that will give them a bit of confidence to open up if they start to see evidence it reduces transmission there.
Fingers crossed it does of course.

Sorry to harp on about schools. This is the only place I would dare mention them!!

@TeaInTheGarden
I work in the hospitalities industry, and I can't see rates getting low enough for us to open if they open the schools too soon.
They opened schools by keeping everything else shut, so it won't necessarily mean that if you open schools it means everything else will follow. It may just as easily mean that they open schools, but nothing else, and by opening schools, they're keeping cases up which prolongs lockdown.

Our Easter holiday has just been cancelled by the venue, so I think they're thinking similar to us.

Ah really that’s such a shame 😫

I was more just musing really, is this really what we are expecting- as in total lockdown till mid April or may. I’ve seen people very negative on schools reopening but not much talk of full lockdown for that long.
I know we can’t know yet, I’m just interested in the general expectation. Lots of talk about schools today just for me wondering.

I think the sensible solution would be to really drive down the numbers to what they were in summer and then:

• partially re-populate schools (rota) with mandatory all round mask* wearing
• neg test to go back to school/work
• financial help to those who have to isolate
• masks everywhere/all the time
• implement a strick and functioning ttr
• close borders to passenger traffic

Reality will be:

• open schools for all as they were
• no neg test after isolation
• no change to ttr
• financial help - yeah, right....
• close borders, except for

and for the when: way too soon, when numbers are still too high. population wide measures will start to be lifted around feb end, schools might be closed until after easter.

*proper ffp2, not cloth/homemade/surgical

(I really hope I'm going to be wrong)