Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Yes Marsha probably , although I did read somewhere once that teachers are quite healthy. TAs not so much...

It is not as sedentary a job (usually!) as many people might think and good for the brain to keep active etc.

I wonder if it’s really possible to extrapolate occupation risks outside healthcare. Teachers , fairly well off, probably decent homes etc, many are able to drive to work . Compared to factory workers, many of whom do more than one job, less income , poorer housing. Is it occupation related or are we back to living standards as key driver ?

Although , apparently, it is quite common for male teachers to die within a short time of retiring, scarily. Sorry for string of posts!

22,195 cases / 596 deaths 🤞

Sorry, 592 deaths

There is the JAMA RIF thing, though tooty which did identify risky occupations for infection based on proximity to people etc. Very interesting. Not covid specific. Will see if I can find it again. Nursery workers, the great overlooked low paid female workers of the pandemic, scored 'high' on that.

A LOT of it is to do with what level of health sacrifice we expect of low paid workers, yes.

@Piggywaspushed

Yes Marsha probably , although I did read somewhere once that teachers are quite healthy. TAs not so much...

Does healthy help much? Weight, age, sex especially age obvs, but sex too, mostly.

If lower weight that could help. But general healthiness wouldn’t do much.

I should expect teachers get exposed to every low-level bug going, too, so if there is any immunity from that (just spitballing) over the years maybe that's a benefit?

True, but they are in close proximity for a very long time with 100+ kids who are potentially mixing freely and are tangents to a min of 2 other ppl who might be out and about (eg working).
It would be interesting to work through step by step for all occupation/movement patterns. Assign a number to how likely to be infected; how many others are being careful; and how many ppl they are in close contact with.
A factory worker not in any city center or London:

• commutes for 40 min, but on a train that is not crammed (local tfl should know I think)
• works in a huge space, but shoulder to shoulder, but everyone has proper ffp3 masks

vs teacher

• driving
• but has 45 min contact in no ventilation space w 100+ kids.

I could not say which is more risky tbh.

I really think that as important as deaths are, it is more paramount going forward to analyze hospital data. Those who die are mostly non-working age (some 80%+ if I remember correctly) - so it's easier to analyze, ONS does that as we seen a bit above on the link. But hospitalization ages are falling well below pensioner age levels and it has a real time impact on economy and longer term potential harm as well.
And it's not something that can't be done from home and takes resources from active life saving.

Anyone seen any hospital analysis?

ICNARC is good but no professions on there unfortunately

Males fill ICU more than females. And BMI 30 to 40

The numbers of school staff and police in this country we could knock out that many jabs very quickly. A few days and sorted.

We don't need to compare them for who is more worthy. Both have high risk of infection. So possible illness even if not hospitalisation. Staff shortages cause disruption.

Also by the time we complete the first priority list a large proportion of police and school staff will have been done. A lot of younger and healthy police too because so vaccination centres are ringing them and fire stations to use up spare jabs.

Did anyone see the thing in the news about the 500 infections at the DVLA??

Interesting looking at my local cases.

On the heat map, 5-9,10-14 ages are the only ones that have been in "blue" category for a bit-they went into blue around 8th Jan, and, although the primary initially stayed quite dark blue, it's now lighter than the 10-14 (but still blue).
The other ages that have in the last couple of days turned blue are the 65-69 and 70-74 ages, which won't have been effected by the jab at all.

But the really interesting one is looking at the graph for 0-59 and 60+.
The 0-59 is dropping steadily from the peak on the 4th Jan when it was way higher. The 60+ was lower at that point, but stayed around the same for another week, then did a slight decrease until 17th Jan, when it was round 700/100k (by then well above the 0-59) when it dropped to less than 500/100k on the 18th and slightly below the lower group.
I'll see if I can attach the graph.

@Witchend
we might live in the same borough as ours is quite similar.

I've probably posted this before - it shows health workers deaths against the general population of working age - source was an HSJ article around a month ago.

If my maths is correct (and please do check) male teachers with a risk of 18:100,000 have a higher risk of death than medical and dental staff at 16:100,000.

I strongly suspect that age is the real factor here.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@Witchend
we might live in the same borough as ours is quite similar.[/quote]
In the SE?
I've just looked at my parents' which is NW and hasn't really been effected by the new variant and that's surprisingly similar too. Not as dramatic, but again a huge drop from 17th to 18th January by a similar percentage.

However my sibling in the NE the 60+ drops a bit before the 17th but then does a not small rise to the 18th, so something obviously different there.

The table of cases in councils in England is updated on www.covidmessenger.com

Feel free to use it to check the latest number of cases in your council and cases per 100K etc.

For anyone unfamiliar with it, you can also click the county column header to sort by county and see the cases and cases per 100K in all the councils in your county in an instant.

@littleowl1
Thank you!

@Quarantino

I should expect teachers get exposed to every low-level bug going, too, so if there is any immunity from that (just spitballing) over the years maybe that's a benefit?

My DD is a teacher, I did wonder if it would give her immune system a boost, she was a sickly child and in hospital several times and got every bug going she also got mumps even though she had the vaccine. It hasn't worked, she generally spends October to April with one cold after another. I often think the year 7 kids must get a shock in May, June and July when they realise she hasn't always got a red nose and cough. She might be the exception though, she usually is.

I wonder how much of an impact snowed in testing centres/roads has had on case figures over the last few days? When the north and Wales had lots snow a month or so ago, was there any evidence of a temporary decline in new infection figures?

@Piggywaspushed

Did anyone see the thing in the news about the 500 infections at the DVLA??

Yes - unbelievable. We've got the odds stacked against us as it is in battling this thing without these people handing the virus lots of new cases on a plate.

@PurpleWh1teGreen

I've probably posted this before - it shows health workers deaths against the general population of working age - source was an HSJ article around a month ago.

If my maths is correct (and please do check) male teachers with a risk of 18:100,000 have a higher risk of death than medical and dental staff at 16:100,000.

I strongly suspect that age is the real factor here.

I think that figure for healthcare workers only goes up to the end of May, whereas the ONS release today goes up to the end of December - so rates have risen in all groups as more people have died. The figure for male healthcare workers is now 44.9 per 100,000.

As an unrelated aside, I thought today's 'How to Vaccinate the World' on R4 was particularly interesting - just listened to it while cleaning the bathroom (all glamour here!) and they were discussing rollout in Indonesia and India, which I knew very little about.

This shows ONS deaths to 8th Jan by age bands: At this point:

60.9% of deaths have occurred in the 5.1% of the population that is over 80
89.7% of deaths have occurred in the 18.5% of the population that is over 65

Only 1% of deaths have occurred in people under 45 (917 people)
This increases to 10.3% for people under 65 (9,321 people)