Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@TheSunIsStillShining

I wonder how to find it out.

I’m not sure that we can assume that cases continue to decline at 24% per week for the next few weeks. I think it’s more likely that weekly declines would start to plateau until they reach a base level of daily cases based on the extent of activities that are still open eg shops, factories, KW schools.

If you look at the November lockdown (although schools were open throughout - but they are 50% open now in some areas) cases declined for two weeks from 17/11 reaching 30% week on week by 25/11, but then this started to flatten off so that by the end of the lockdown they were only marginally declining. Although of course we had the combination of declining cases in some regions but rising cases in Kent and the south east. Probably needs looking at regionally but I don’t have the time before work and homeschool this morning!

The information hasn't been released, not even the total vaccine availability across the two. BBC summarises the latest official numbers: "Of the 100 million Oxford jabs ordered, only 530,000 were ready for nationwide rollout on 4 January. Although, the government has said this number will rise to "tens of millions" by the end of March.

Pfizer says the number of doses it has sent to the UK is now "in the millions"."

4 or 4.5 million Astrazeneca came from Belgium, but we only heard about 530k being signed off and the partner factory had quality issues, hence EU losing their supply.

Of 6.8m doses - 1.3m were Pfizer-BioNTech last year and 530k Oxford Astrazeneca this year. That leaves 5m - could be split any way at all! Anecdata, all our family who've been vaccinated were given Pfizer.

BristOliver has corrected himself: twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1353616021077323776?s=19

In regards to vaccination supply, someone on the BBC said recently that the reason they won't reveal any numbers about supply is basically national security- if other countries find out we are getting more/quicker supply than they are, they could put pressure on Pfizer and AZ to divert some of our intended supply to them. Even more so now EU countries are facing delays with theirs.

@ceeveebee I don't think we should expect the trajectory of the lockdown to be the same as it was in November - that was when the new strain was getting going so cases stopped falling, and even started to rise in some areas, because of that. If everyone else remains the same, the reduction ought to gradually accelerate, week on week, as the proportion of people vaccinated grows. Lockdown fatigue would slow it down, but the think we know now, with hindsight at least, that that wasn't what we were seeing in November, as it was in fact the new strain. I tried running some figures myself on the assumption that the r rate (estimated at .85 currently) falls by the proportion vaccinated each day - there's obviously all kinds of assumptions in there (people vaccinated are mixing randomly with others, 100% reduction in transmission, etc) but the impact was impressive - similar to the maths thread on twitter linked to yesterday, the fall starts to accelerate and rates get very low by April. It cheered me up at least!

@atomt

In regards to vaccination supply, someone on the BBC said recently that the reason they won't reveal any numbers about supply is basically national security- if other countries find out we are getting more/quicker supply than they are, they could put pressure on Pfizer and AZ to divert some of our intended supply to them. Even more so now EU countries are facing delays with theirs.

Won't they be able to work backwards i.e. if we have vaccinated x people by 15th February we have had at least x vaccines plus allow a bit for working stock as we aren't going to be stockpiling it and they have a fairly accurate figure?

[quote Firefliess]@ceeveebee I don't think we should expect the trajectory of the lockdown to be the same as it was in November - that was when the new strain was getting going so cases stopped falling, and even started to rise in some areas, because of that. If everyone else remains the same, the reduction ought to gradually accelerate, week on week, as the proportion of people vaccinated grows. Lockdown fatigue would slow it down, but the think we know now, with hindsight at least, that that wasn't what we were seeing in November, as it was in fact the new strain. I tried running some figures myself on the assumption that the r rate (estimated at .85 currently) falls by the proportion vaccinated each day - there's obviously all kinds of assumptions in there (people vaccinated are mixing randomly with others, 100% reduction in transmission, etc) but the impact was impressive - similar to the maths thread on twitter linked to yesterday, the fall starts to accelerate and rates get very low by April. It cheered me up at least![/quote]
They have told us that test, trace and isolate hasn't been working as numbers are too high so will that improve as numbers go down and have an impact as well.

I don’t know, not even. I am very optimistic about the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, but not as much about the Oxford one due to the more limited/patchy data. There is a rumour that they may be approved by the EU today, so hopefully they’ll release more data.

[quote Firefliess]@ceeveebee I don't think we should expect the trajectory of the lockdown to be the same as it was in November - that was when the new strain was getting going so cases stopped falling, and even started to rise in some areas, because of that. If everyone else remains the same, the reduction ought to gradually accelerate, week on week, as the proportion of people vaccinated grows. Lockdown fatigue would slow it down, but the think we know now, with hindsight at least, that that wasn't what we were seeing in November, as it was in fact the new strain. I tried running some figures myself on the assumption that the r rate (estimated at .85 currently) falls by the proportion vaccinated each day - there's obviously all kinds of assumptions in there (people vaccinated are mixing randomly with others, 100% reduction in transmission, etc) but the impact was impressive - similar to the maths thread on twitter linked to yesterday, the fall starts to accelerate and rates get very low by April. It cheered me up at least![/quote]
Sorry - I meant the baseline reduction from lockdown, ie the red line in the graph posted by Tealinthegarden - before accounting for the impact of vaccinations

Even looking at regions where there wasn’t really any evidence of the new variant, the rate of decline slowed as you got further into the lockdown. There are so many more businesses still open and more children in school than in lockdown 1, and lockdown fatigue will increase as time passes.
But only time till tell!

ancientgran - just to be clear, it is the Palestinian Authority's responsibility under the Oslo Accords to sort out vaccinations. They sourced them from Russia, as they're entitled to, and didn't ask for Israeli help. Note that the Israelis have offered vaccinations to the East Jerusalem Palestinians and all the Palestinians in Israel. By contrast, Lebanon has refused to vaccinate Palestinians at all, to the complete indifference of almost everyone, especially those who normally stand up for Palestinians against Israel.

I thought the Moderna vaccine had also been approved - does anyone know if that's being used? I've hardly heard anything about it.

@Quarantino it’s been approved but we won’t receive it in U.K. til “Spring” so probably March/April due to “late ordering” I believe

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/how-does-moderna-covid-vaccine-work-uk-b374169.html%3famp

There’s a table near the bottom of the Our World In Data vaccination page that tells you which countries are using which vaccines.

A small data point, my South London council is now rolling out to over 70s, even though not all over 80s have been contacted (depending on which vaccination sites went live, when). They expect the majority of over 80s to have had the vaccine by the end of January, and it to have been offered to all over 70s by 15 February.

@samG76

ancientgran - just to be clear, it is the Palestinian Authority's responsibility under the Oslo Accords to sort out vaccinations. They sourced them from Russia, as they're entitled to, and didn't ask for Israeli help. Note that the Israelis have offered vaccinations to the East Jerusalem Palestinians and all the Palestinians in Israel. By contrast, Lebanon has refused to vaccinate Palestinians at all, to the complete indifference of almost everyone, especially those who normally stand up for Palestinians against Israel.

Yes the Health Minister tried that excuse, Marr did explain their obligations. Hope they understood.

[quote Quarantino]BristOliver has corrected himself: twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1353616021077323776?s=19[/quote]
Thanks, was just about to post that thread.

@Quarantino

I thought the Moderna vaccine had also been approved - does anyone know if that's being used? I've hardly heard anything about it.

The Scottish governments vaccine deployment plan (was published online but now withdrawn after UK government requested them to) says first deliveries of the Moderna vaccine are only due to arrive week commencing 04/04/2021. Very small quantities though - circa 4000 per week until first week of May then about treble that number from week commencing 02/05/2021. (Scottish numbers only, so multiply that to calculate all UK numbers).

So no Moderna until April and then only very small quantities, but we could potentially have some supplies of Janssen (J&J) and/or Novavax vaccines by then or before then. (Subject of course to phase 3 trial results and regulatory approval).

[quote Eyewhisker]Some more promising vaccine news from Israel. over 60s are falling as a share of cases twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1353371400892002304?s=21[/quote]
Hospital admissions falling too:

Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot.

Full effects of Pfizer’s shots only kick in around a month after inoculation, but data from Israel shows there is a stark drop in infections even before that point.
www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospitalizations-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/amp/

Modern a just announced that their data confirms their vaccine is effective against both “U.K.” and “SA” variants but they’re also trialling a booster with changes for the SA variant.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/c0c8f72c-e58e-4319-80c4-0db153ad85db

Good news about Israel but I’m still worried about Leicester! If the reason for their increasing rates is that they are doing more asymptomatic testing - so finding more cases. Is their a concern that in other places (especially in the north) cases are also going up but they are not being tested and reflected in the figures yet?

Moderna press release:
investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against

ONS updated report about deaths from coronavirus: "Coronavirus (COVID-19) related deaths by occupation, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics" www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19relateddeathsbyoccupationenglandandwales/deathsregisteredbetween9marchand28december2020.
Whether it will be used for next state vaccine distribution, or used to justify just going by age is unclear. It could be argued either way.

I've just had details about the Vivaldi study by UCL. Don't know if anyone has heard of it. They are doing a study of care home staff and residents, taking regular blood samples over several months to see how they respond to vaccine, how long it last etc. We obviously won't get results for months but I thought it sounded interesting.