Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Folks - I have updated the hospital data charts for each region in England on www.covidmessenger.com

No. of Hospital Cases:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-cases/

Daily Admissions:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

No. of Patients in Mechanical Ventilation Beds:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-ventilation/

Reason for cautious optimism in the hospital admissions data?

Yes you might be right @Witchend. The practical challenges of leaving the people who've had Covid to last might outweigh the benefits of doing so. And yes you wouldn't want to put people off getting tested. But I would assume they have those same issues in Israel, so interesting that they've chosen a different route. I wonder whether you could just ask people to delay, or recommend it as not necessary, but not withhold vaccination if they want it?

On another topic, I went a walk this morning and bumped into a GP friend. He's frustrated over delays in getting people jabbed at his surgery (due to things like one of his nurses fussing over whether she's being given a long enough tea break in her 4 hour shift) and says he has 1000 Astrozenica vaccines sitting a his fridge. I was quite pleased to hear what he said though - those kind of issues sounds solvable to me - much better than if vaccine supply is the main issue. He also thought they'd be able to go faster one once they started the Astrozenica ones (they're still using Pfizer currently) because they struggle with the space and trained staff needed to watch people having to wait for the 15 minutes afterwards. Which is good to hear too 🙂

Great positive vaccination news- 433k in England only (not sure if devolved nations update at weekends) yesterday.

I just watched one of John Campbell's videos. He was comparing the effects of the new variant in Denmark and the US.
Apparently Denmark are sequencing 100% of all their positive tests compared to US 0.03%. The new variant accounts for 70% of cases in Denmark. They haven't seen a dramatic rise because they are full lockdown. He suggests that there might be a surge in US cases.
Thread on Twitter
"Danish public health officials say that if it weren’t for their extensive monitoring, they would be feeling a false sense of confidence right now."

@littleowl1 thank you for your fantastic data.

Sorting by county shows me that my own county of Leicestershire has the highest proportion of areas with rising cases that any other. Sigh, we've struggled since the very start with no real understanding as to why. Lots of sensible speculation, but nothing concrete.

30,004 cases
610 deaths

First doses now up to 6,353,321

First day for ages with deaths less than 900

@babyyodaxmas

First day for ages with deaths less than 900

Deaths were lower on Monday.

@Hardbackwriter

30,004 cases 610 deaths

First doses now up to 6,353,321

This looks positive, the numbers are coming down

[quote Chaotic45]@littleowl1 thank you for your fantastic data.

Sorting by county shows me that my own county of Leicestershire has the highest proportion of areas with rising cases that any other. Sigh, we've struggled since the very start with no real understanding as to why. Lots of sensible speculation, but nothing concrete.[/quote]
What is the speculation? I live in Leicester city and have no idea what the reasons could be so would love to hear some ideas.

No deaths (by date of death) have been reported for the last two days, last data is for Thu 21st. So I expect some catching up will happen.

@Firefliess

It would seem very sensible to ask those who've had Covid (confirmed by a test) within the last 6 months to wait until the summer for vaccination imo.

I'd be bloody furious if someone said my son couldn't have the vaccine that he caught working on a ward full of covid patients.

Slightly more deaths than Monday, but fewer (just) than last Sunday. Hopefully this is now moving in the right direction.

I think it's the first day for ages where the announced deaths are fewer than exactly a week ago.

@Quarantino

No deaths (by date of death) have been reported for the last two days, last data is for Thu 21st. So I expect some catching up will happen.

They have for England, Scotland and Wales - it seems not for NI, so the overall UK number can't be calculated but there won't be much of a catch up from there.

@Layladylay234 and @Chaotic45 I'm in Leicester too, I'd love to see data on occupation and best guess of where transmission took place.

I suspect it's a combination of

• large amount of production/manufacturing jobs which can't be done from home
• 3 large hospitals in city then several more in county - both patients and increased amount of key-workers so schools still fairly well used
• young offenders prison in Glen Parva and HM Leicester on Welford road
• significant number of students returned to DeMont, Leicester and Loughborough Unis to do practical courses like medicine, veterinary etc
• proactive asymptomatic testing at drop in centres and door to door
• inter-generational housing

Scotland have 95% of care home residents (I'm pretty sure that was what Nicola Sturgeon said on the Marr show this morning.) If we could look at rates in Scottish care homes over the next week or two that should give us a good indication of how it's going shouldn't it?

A few blips aside cases falling at a reasonable rate overall in England.

7 day average to 19th stands at just over 35,000 down from the absolute peak of just under 55,000 on 4th Jan.

Before we get too carried away 35,000 exceeds the entirety of confirmed cases in England between 11th June and 31st July.

It remains higher than the position on 28 Dec, at which point the 7 day average was around 34,000 and still almost three times higher than the 12,000 figure at the end of the November lockdown.

Nevertheless it does seem to be a pretty good rate of decline that will continue to be sustained. The current mood music seems to be that lessons might actually have been learnt from relaxing restrictions too quickly. Much as a Y13 parent I’d love schools to be back, the situation is still quite some way from that being a remotely sensible reality.

I meant 95% of care home residents vaccinated.

The table of cases in councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release (283 councils rising/32 falling).

For anyone who may have missed it earlier, today I also updated all the hospitals data charts for each region:

Cases in hospital: www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-cases/

Daily admissions: www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

Patients in ventilation beds: www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-ventilation/

@ancientgran NI have a very similar figure, with a high % of second doses too for care homes (can’t put my finger on the exact figure now). These two should be able to give us an idea. Earlier in the week the Heath minister was reporting that the pressures on care homes in NI were easing because of vaccinations, but unfortunately BBC didn’t share any links to data so I didn’t share it on here, but that’s promising in itself as no doubt he would have been quickly rebutted if there were glaring mistakes.

[quote littleowl1]The table of cases in councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release (283 councils rising/32 falling).

For anyone who may have missed it earlier, today I also updated all the hospitals data charts for each region:

Cases in hospital: www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-cases/

Daily admissions: www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

Patients in ventilation beds: www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-ventilation/[/quote]
I think you got rising and falling mixed up

"283 councils rising/32 falling"

Went into panic then 😯

@HalfShrunkMoreToGo that could make sense, especially for Leicester city itself. Less so maybe for surrounding areas within the county.

@Layladylay234 previous speculation wrt Leicester has included: high proportion of inter generational living both in the poorer and affluent areas, so higher transmission in the home.

Lots of factory workers.

Sheer weariness in an area with the tightest restrictions for the longest time.

Suspicion amongst some communities and lack of trust in authorities.

I have enormous respect for the tight knit, family focussed Asian communities in Leicester. I do think that some of the ways they live and worship make community transmission more of a challenge. I also have only ever come across Covid conspiracy theorists on mumsnet and within the Asian community near me.

[quote Chaotic45]@HalfShrunkMoreToGo that could make sense, especially for Leicester city itself. Less so maybe for surrounding areas within the county.

@Layladylay234 previous speculation wrt Leicester has included: high proportion of inter generational living both in the poorer and affluent areas, so higher transmission in the home.

Lots of factory workers.

Sheer weariness in an area with the tightest restrictions for the longest time.

Suspicion amongst some communities and lack of trust in authorities.

I have enormous respect for the tight knit, family focussed Asian communities in Leicester. I do think that some of the ways they live and worship make community transmission more of a challenge. I also have only ever come across Covid conspiracy theorists on mumsnet and within the Asian community near me. [/quote]
This could lead to a bit of a vaccination problem too. In London I really only get sent conspiracy theorists stuff from black friends and vaccination fake news from Asian friends. The take up of black and Asian population for the vaccine is expected to be much lower than average.

I can only hope the governments new campaigns to tackle this work. Also the Muslim community leaders in a lot of places are trying to combat this too.

[quote lurker101]@ancientgran NI have a very similar figure, with a high % of second doses too for care homes (can’t put my finger on the exact figure now). These two should be able to give us an idea. Earlier in the week the Heath minister was reporting that the pressures on care homes in NI were easing because of vaccinations, but unfortunately BBC didn’t share any links to data so I didn’t share it on here, but that’s promising in itself as no doubt he would have been quickly rebutted if there were glaring mistakes.[/quote]
I heard a figure somewhere, can't remember where, that 75% of NI over 80s had already had two doses of vaccine. As you say that would also give some indication of where we are going.

Some more promising vaccine news from Israel. over 60s are falling as a share of cases twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1353371400892002304?s=21