Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

There have been discussions on twitter that new variants might be "by-products" of antibody / plasma treatments given to immunocompromised patients. This might explain why (i) the mutations started to happen at the same time as the antibody treatments became more popular and (ii) some of the clusters have been linked to hospitals. However I have not seen any tangible evidence to support this hypothesis.

So, we are a few weeks in from the start of the Oxford vaccine rollout, and obviously some Pfizer jabs were given out before then.

When do we expect to see some impact in the data? And what should we be looking for? A reduction in care home deaths and deaths of older people as a proportion of total deaths...?

But also, will the the impact of frontline staff being vaccinated show up in stats anywhere? I’m hoping this will drive case numbers down (although I’ve not seen much talk of this possibility anywhere) as they are less likely to catch it and take it home and into the community. And also there could be less outbreaks in hospitals?

Any clever data people know what we should be watching (and crossing our fingers) for in the next few weeks...?

Back of envelope .. fill in more accurate numbers if you know them

10% had first vaccine, most in the last few weeks.
Best case, they are all from today sufficiently protected to avoid serious illness ... about 2 weeks after the first jab
10 days infection to symptoms
10 days symptoms to hospital
10 days hospital to death

So in a month there might be an additional 10% drop in death rate over what might be filtering through from the drop in cases?

The hope is that vaccination slows transmissions
Again , it will take a month or two to show through

If we could get to cases halving every two weeks I think we are down to 1000 cases a day April/may time single figure deaths ?

Des spreigel said R 0.7 means cases halving every week

@midgebabe

The hope is that vaccination slows transmissions Again , it will take a month or two to show through

If we could get to cases halving every two weeks I think we are down to 1000 cases a day April/may time single figure deaths ?

I think that's too optimistic.

given

• how many do not want to receive the vaccine
• how many will only get the second dose very late
• if school staff isn't vaccinated
• if vaccine isn't extended to teenagers

oh, and stopping/reducing lockdown measures might destroy any

effect of vaccines

No it's not optimistic , it's not a prediction

just saying IF we have cases every two weeks , with restrictions, nothing to do with vaccination, sorry if unclear

And the additional 10% is based on those vaccinated already

@midgebabe

Back of envelope .. fill in more accurate numbers if you know them

10% had first vaccine, most in the last few weeks.
Best case, they are all from today sufficiently protected to avoid serious illness ... about 2 weeks after the first jab
10 days infection to symptoms
10 days symptoms to hospital
10 days hospital to death

So in a month there might be an additional 10% drop in death rate over what might be filtering through from the drop in cases?

You'd expect it to be much higher than 10%, though, because we aren't vaccinating at random and the groups that have been vaccinated have much, much higher death rates than average. Vaccinating all over 80s should have a huge impact on death rates - not as much on ICU, though, which will be an issue.

Whilst it’s true we have vaccinated 10% of adult population, it has been of course skewed towards the most vulnerable, so between 50-70% of the over 80s have had their first dose depending on region

www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/revealed-huge-local-variation-in-covid-vaccination-rates/7029355.article

In the past week, approx 4200 of the 7200 deaths in England were in the over 80s age group (i got this from the data behind the age heat map for England)

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England

So surely the impact on deaths should be much better?

(Sorry @Hardbackwriter I am saying exactly the same as you but it took me a while to type it!!)

I am also wondering what the current level of immunity is already having. Aside from vaccinations, it’s not insignificant that 1 in 8 were recently found to have antibodies. What would things look like if that were not the case just now?

*what effect

I think the first indication that vaccination is starting to work is likely to be a fall in the reported cases in the older age groups (compared with other age groups). That's what's been seen already in Israel where they're ahead of the rest of the world with vaccination. So keep an eye on the heat maps on the government dashboard. The Travelling Tabby dashboard also has a nice graph of cases by age group worth watching. (Or I think you can download the full data from the dashboard if you can cope with a not very use friendly CSV file)

It's not going to be easy to distinguish a fall in deaths or hospitalisation arising from the vaccine from the fall that will result from lockdown and falling case rates, though I'd expect to see the average age of those dying start to fall as the oldest people are increasingly vaccinated.

That graph is quite stark @Hardbackwriter isn't it? Shows that focusing on the very old will reduce deaths but do little to reduce pressure on hospitals. You need to get the 50-70 age groups done to do that. Also suggests that once they've done the over 50s the 40-49 age group could be the one filling up hospitals - though that does depend whether the 40-49s in hospital are in fact all ECV, or with health conditions so will in fact be jabbed along with the older age groups.

Yes, I think it's one of the reasons that so much of the current government messaging is around ICUs and NHS overload (obviously a lot of this is just because that is an absolute acute crisis at the moment, I'm not trying to be cynical), because it could be a really tricky moment politically if deaths are right down but we still need to have very tight restrictions, since we're all very used to using deaths of the measure of 'how bad it is'.

I just realised that Israel are not vaccinating those who have recovered from Covid.

I’d be interested to know that when the fall in deaths and hospitalisations happens, as will be the case with the decline in cases, how will we know how much of that is due to the vaccine or lockdown? I suppose looking at the stats from the vaccinated groups in isolation will help.

Agree with the fact that hospital outbreaks are probably widespread and skewing figures. A poster on another thread found out that the vast
Majority of cases in her (rural) area happen to come from a MSOA with almost nothing but a prison. So high numbers in your area doesn’t necessarily mean high community transmission in your area.

It would seem very sensible to ask those who've had Covid (confirmed by a test) within the last 6 months to wait until the summer for vaccination imo.

I was wondering the other day, how many of the younger people in ICU are there because they weren't able to be treated early enough due to lack of space/care on standard wards?

If the over 80's are not usually taken to ICU then they would be in standard beds. If those numbers a reduced then there may be more capacity to treat younger people early enough to prevent the need for ICU?

I came across this Twitter thread, which is trying to answer the question of how and when vaccines might have an effect on case numbers:

twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1353270197935812608?s=20

ATieLikeRichardGere - I saw that approach suggested on another thread. Just on a practical basis I thought it would make the roll out far too complicated, (is it those who had been hospitalised, or those who had tested positive?), but perhaps with a much smaller population, that isn't such a problem in Israel. I've no medical, scientific or statistical background, so this means nothing, but I would feel very uncomfortable about that approach here.

Yes, not disagreeing with you, @thatgingergirl. I’ve not thought through the pros and cons that much. I was mostly just surprised that Israel are actually able to do it like this!

It would seem very sensible to ask those who've had Covid (confirmed by a test) within the last 6 months to wait until the summer for vaccination imo.

I think that would be complicated, plus put the risk of people not wanting to be tested because they want to make sure they get the jab.
There was also the report of the chap who had been re-infected after I think it was around 2 months. I think the papers would love to run a story about the "86yo who was refused an injection because he'd had a positive test (possibly implying false positive) and now was in ICU with covid".

You would also have the complication of when to call them. 6 months after their positive test? All after June 1st? What order?
I think it would be too easy for someone to be forgotten.