Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thanks Lick,
Our local surgery (3 separate GP surgeries in one big building) is a vaccination centre. Before Christmas the Flu clinic was being held at the local football club which would seem to give more space.

Having a little bit of a freak out. That's a very gentle way of saying risk just increased 30-40%. And their tones are scaring me. The three of them sound very serious and jittery.

I think I finish watching this and then take a news break for a bit.

Because a lot of people are idiots
Because if they had actually begun by acting on worst case scenario from the start would have meant things would not have been so bad now

It is sobering.

Am I right - new variant causes more severe disease so more hospitalisation risk. But once you are in hospital - no real difference in death rate between variants ?

I was thinking more it's to prepare us for higher death numbers that will be reported. I sadly wonder too if it is because the NHS is unable to provide the same level of care now to all.

Patrick on Israeli data:
He says it’s extremely preliminary and hasn’t followed people out long enough.
Keep an eye on it.

@dingit I don’t want to be that guy but I can’t say the same thought didn’t occur to me, with the phrase “increase sense of personal threat” ringing in my ears...

The problem here is that they’ve lost our trust which is a bit of a public health fail.

@tootyfruitypickle

Am I right - new variant causes more severe disease so more hospitalisation risk. But once you are in hospital - no real difference in death rate between variants ?

I wasn't clear on that, or if there are more people dying outside of hospital .

It’s still only 1.3 chance of dying if you are in your 60s. On an individual risk level it’s low. It’s just high population wide.

Sorry 1.3pc. Wearing my telly glasses !

If you are aged 60, I don't think it sounds a small risk. I would not get on a plane with those odds!

@tootyfruitypickle

Am I right - new variant causes more severe disease so more hospitalisation risk. But once you are in hospital - no real difference in death rate between variants ?

There was a no difference part but I missed it. Would be good to see

Tg no further restrictions for now anyway

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]@dingit I don’t want to be that guy but I can’t say the same thought didn’t occur to me, with the phrase “increase sense of personal threat” ringing in my ears...

The problem here is that they’ve lost our trust which is a bit of a public health fail.[/quote]
I hope so as this comes on the very day my dd away at uni has symptoms and just done a test

Swg- hope you’re ok. 30-40% sounds terrifying, but a change from 10-13 / 100,000 is less scary somehow, so it might help to think of it that way. It’s undeniably a bad thing but an individual’s chances of dying are still v low.

I think there has to be an element of the transmissibility at play here too, so care homes are having outbreaks after months with PPE and no cases. Schools are having outbreaks which mean children are taking it home and being cared for closely by people who then get higher viral load. Etc etc

My risk analysis is all based on having had cancer ten years ago with a 1 in 5 change of dying. Who would have thought that experience would protect my mental health ten years on. I can’t panic over 1.3pc altho keen to avoid !

Was it an increase in deaths from 10 to 13 per 1000 males aged 60 who are infected? That's how I heard it.

What was no no change part of increased mortality bit?

I’m just going to copy and paste someone else who heard this. This is quoting another thread -

I don’t understand when he said that there’s no evidence of higher mortality rate in hospital patients with the new variant but that the new variant is showing a slightly higher mortality rate. Does that mean more people getting it at home and not being hospitalised are dying from it? Am I being dense?

I suppose it sadly has been quite common for people in care homes to die in care homes without making it to hospital so that could account for a lot.

I would understand it as an increase in IFR from 1.0 to 1.3 /1.4 for men in their sixties and that this was given as an example, but that you would expect to see a 30 to 40% increase in IFR across all ages?

However, lots of uncertainty as to whether or not all of this increase can be attributed to new variant.

With the increased risk being so low are we sure it is as a result of the new variant rather than other factors like lower vitamin d at this time of year?

Hardbackwriter

“Was anyone else struck by the side note that only 25% of people who eventually die of COVID have done a test before being hospitalised? I can't work out if I think that's surprising or not?”

Yes I was.

Someone else mentioned they were struck that we don’t sequence pillar 1 hospitalised patients.
I hope this can be fixed very quickly, as it will go some way to helping us figure out whether there really is an impact on mortality with the “new” U.K. strain.

Interesting the comment about infections at vaccination centres. Ours is on the outskirts of town down a long lane that you would only drive down to get to the vaccination centre. Today I watched hundreds of cars drive past me with elderly people in. Lots of masks being worn in the cars but many of these had been pulled down below the chin. I was also surprised by the number of taxis. Not a single open window. All I kept thinking about was the risk to those elderly people being with others in cars for quite a long period of time. And that’s even before they mix with others in the vaccination centre. Fantastic that they are getting their jabs but worried me.