Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

If it more transmissible because it gets into your cells more easily, then people get a higher initial dose, which people used to say affected outcome of the initial variant

Have they shown their working? Do we have a link to a paper or a report?

I can find articles but this raises more questions than answers www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55768627

@CoffeeandCroissant

I would understand it as an increase in IFR from 1.0 to 1.3 /1.4 for men in their sixties and that this was given as an example, but that you would expect to see a 30 to 40% increase in IFR across all ages?

However, lots of uncertainty as to whether or not all of this increase can be attributed to new variant.

It was the death rate rather than infection rate. So the old variant they expect 10 out of 1000 males aged 60 to die but now with the new variant this has increased to 13/14 out of 1000. Sobering.

CoffeeandCroissant

Yes, I understood it to be relative risk 1.3-1.4 across the board.

I felt it's more an um that's something weird, we need to look at, not hard clear sums yet

Ladder people fear a slightly cold breeze that they feel instantly, than catching covid.

Very weak coms on fresh air in the uk.

mrshoho

IFR is infection fatality rate, so you could take IFR for any group (eg an age group) and multiply by 1.3

So, he quoted the very specific example of a 60 year old man, saying the increased mortality risk of new strain vs old strain to that particular demographic was 30-40% - expressing this as "13-14 people per 1000 cases will die with new variant, compared to 10 deaths with the old".

What is the current case fatality for over 70s /80s?

Because I think we can all understand why he chose that demographic example and why he expressed in those very specific terms. But to get an idea of the real impact, we need to apply an uplift to those groups who are making up the greatest proportion of deaths already.

Because those numbers will look different.

@mrshoho IFR is the death rate. It means infection fatality ratio

@ATieLikeRichardGere

I suppose it sadly has been quite common for people in care homes to die in care homes without making it to hospital so that could account for a lot.

But this wouldn’t chime with example if 60 year old man, who would more likely be in hospital

Didn’t anyone else hear this part? Where he said something had no change

oops yes sorry. I understand now.

@MarshaBradyo well I think it might still, depending on how they’ve worked it out! Also people in their 60s can be in care homes.

I want to see their maths!

@littleowl1

Anyone any ideas what is going on in Leicestershire?

Looking through the table www.covidmessenger.com, the majority of its councils have rising cases w-o-w.

Not massive rises, but rises nonetheless. And given the tremendous drops we are seeing in other parts of the country it's a surprising.

Any ideas what's going on there.

I live in Leicester city and no idea what's going on. We had a spike (I say a spike but the numbers then were the same as now) in Nov which fit in with Diwalli. Oadby and Wigston have been high for weeks but now seem to be reducing but everywhere else is increasing. Really odd. I live near the uni and it's dead so don't think it's students returning.

Let me know if you have any thoughts

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]@MarshaBradyo well I think it might still, depending on how they’ve worked it out! Also people in their 60s can be in care homes.

I want to see their maths![/quote]
Me too I’m just not following it

On a behavioural impact level using age 60 male makes most sense as they are more likely to be in ICU

Can anyone who actually figures out what Vallance meant about the whole, no change in chances of death in hospital vs chance of death has increased from 10/1000 to 13/14/1000., tag me please

I know that's a crude way of what he said but you know what I mean!

@Barracker

So, he quoted the very specific example of a 60 year old man, saying the increased mortality risk of new strain vs old strain to that particular demographic was 30-40% - expressing this as "13-14 people per 1000 cases will die with new variant, compared to 10 deaths with the old".

What is the current case fatality for over 70s /80s?

Because I think we can all understand why he chose that demographic example and why he expressed in those very specific terms. But to get an idea of the real impact, we need to apply an uplift to those groups who are making up the greatest proportion of deaths already.

Because those numbers will look different.

According to the imperial report from December IFR is 10.8% in over 80s in community but a horrifying 35.9% in care home residents (I hadn't seen that figure before).

I also thought that the example must have been very carefully chosen to be alarming without being absolutely panic inducing - you could have produced quite different reactions by choosing different age groups for your worked-out example.

There's been quite a lot of reputable science around higher viral load leading to more serious disease.

So new variant could be equally as lethal at the same viral load, but if you're more likely to get a higher viral load due to higher transmissibility then in theory that could lead to a higher death rate.

I've been wondering about this for a while, especially in light of pretty much universal coverage of frontline workers saying they're seeing sicker younger adults in this wave. I suppose it'll take time to know for sure.

They should give footnotes and references for these briefings.

I was shocked at the care home figures when I saw them as well.

According to the imperial report from December IFR is 10.8% in over 80s in community but a horrifying 35.9% in care home residents (I hadn't seen that figure before)

But that's about what would be expected from normal life expectancy isn't it? Care home residents have a life expectancy less than 2 years, but someone outside a care home at 80 has a life expectancy over 10 years, so 3 times different rate isn't that surprising? We just see again and again that it's a multiplier of existing risk

“ Sir Patrick Vallance is asked why scientists think that the new variant spreads more.

He says experts do not believe there is a higher viral load - that people transmit more of it when they breathe - than in the original variant.

The new variant may find it more easy to get into cells than the old variant, he says.”

@ATieLikeRichardGere

“ Sir Patrick Vallance is asked why scientists think that the new variant spreads more.

He says experts do not believe there is a higher viral load - that people transmit more of it when they breathe - than in the original variant.

The new variant may find it more easy to get into cells than the old variant, he says.”

Where’s this from pls

It might help us to see transcript I feel so confused atm

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]@MarshaBradyo well I think it might still, depending on how they’ve worked it out! Also people in their 60s can be in care homes.

I want to see their maths![/quote]
Don't hold your breath! :(

I just pulled that off the Telegraph live feed.

ILoveJKRowling I had wondered about viral dose/load too, but I'm sure I heard Patrick V say today that was not looking to be the case.

Hardbackwriter thanks. So for the over eighties demographic (not in care homes) there are 108 deaths for every 1000 infections. And if IFR is increased proportionately (30-40% uplift) for this demographic it will rise from 10.8% to 14-15%. Which might mean an extra 40+ deaths per 1000 infections.

The care home figures are awful.

Link to nervtag report on lethality

mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1352682106007285761