Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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Bad news tonight from Boris.

New variant slightly more virulent.

Peston on Twitter quoting Neil Ferguson
mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1352634648199749633

Looking at the spec dates for the 37,000ish cases reported today for England and comparing with last friday

Monday 18th another 2111 cases added, compared with 4038 added last Friday to Monday 11th.

Monday 18th now at 40184 overall, compared with the 51614 for last Monday. So likely to come out around or just below a 20% week on week reduction.

Tuesday 19th 9515 cases added as compared with 13468 added last Friday for Tuesday 12th. 19th currently stands after three days at 34305, the 12th ended up at 44684. So Tuesday just gone once the next few days feed through could be approaching 15% lower than Tuesday 12th.

Wednesday 20th 20769 added today, last Friday saw 27924 added to Wednesday 13th. Only two days reported so although a good drop at the moment tomorrow will give us a better feel. Last Saturday added close to 7000 further cases to the Wednesday 13th total.

The table of councils is updated on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage so feel free to check the latest number of cases in your council.

I'm kind of surprised Johnson is up at 5pm. Not a whole lot to announce surely other than "stay locked down"......?

By the way, anyone who lives or has relatives living in mobile blackout zones, it's really worth using the signal checker to make sure they're on the best network for their area: checker.ofcom.org.uk/mobile-coverage. There can be a lot of variation in coverage. Very true, we had a terrible signal here and changed to another network and it is much better, not great but much better.

I don't know if I imagined this but I'm sure that back before mine went off to uni their friends sometimes sent them a text and mistakenly used the landline number instead of the mobile. We did get the message, it was a mechanical voice and scared the life out of me the first time it happened. I wonder if that still happens?

New variant slightly more virulent

Will be very interested to read the reports, as a more transmissible form will be more likely to infect people who have taken more precautions, and I think it's reasonable to conclude that those more vulnerable will have taken more precautions. Hence more vulnerable people are more likely to catch a more transmissible version, how do you control for that?

[quote everythingthelighttouches]Bad news tonight from Boris.

New variant slightly more virulent.

Peston on Twitter quoting Neil Ferguson
mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1352634648199749633[/quote]
Was anyone else struck by the side note that only 25% of people who eventually die of COVID have done a test before being hospitalised? I can't work out if I think that's surprising or not?

Anyone any ideas what is going on in Leicestershire?

Looking through the table www.covidmessenger.com, the majority of its councils have rising cases w-o-w.

Not massive rises, but rises nonetheless. And given the tremendous drops we are seeing in other parts of the country it's a surprising.

Any ideas what's going on there.

I was going to make the same point as sirfredfredgeorge - is it really more virulent or is it just very good at spreading to vulnerable and susceptible people?

Interestingly, the estimate of the increase in transmissibility for the new variant keeps going down. Initially we were told it could be as high as 70%. PHE then came up with the 50% number. The latest analysis from Denmark claims the differential is closer to 35%.

I am guessing the new variant might be very good at finding and infecting susceptible people but there is a question if the linear growth in transmission continues once the “easy targets” have been hit. Is there hope that the “new” variant might start looking more like the “old” variant (which is still bad enough but at least we sort of know how to deal with it).

Was anyone else struck by the side note that only 25% of people who eventually die of COVID have done a test before being hospitalised? I can't work out if I think that's surprising or not?

I don't understand why patients, once hospitalised, are not tested when in to ascertain which variant/strain they have - obvs won't change their treatment etc, but for research purposes this would be really important.

Crikey there’s a lot to unpack this evening.

sorry, ignore the "when in"

So new variant being more effective mostly against people who don't wash their hands, but little change on those who do (as an example) would explain the evidence.

• much more transmissible in young people (lower care due to lower risk)
• transmissibility drops as people know about it (complacent behaviours disappear and people start "paying attention" again)

Was anyone else struck by the side note that only 25% of people who eventually die of COVID have done a test before being hospitalised? I can't work out if I think that's surprising or not?

Well I would be surprised until I encountered various people who'd had one of the three main symptoms and hadn't really thought or bothered to test. So I'm disappointed to see this as was hoping these people were just abnormal.

If there are 12.7m people under 16 out of 66.8m, then we've probably given first vaccines to about 10% of the over-16 population, right? (first dose total is 5,383,103)

Also just realised that the higher secondary attack rate in household tends to favour higher death on what we've known before doesn't it? Since household acquired infection tends to come with higher initial viral loads which has been shown to have a worse outcome doesn't it?

Might the apparent additional virulence of the new strain be possibly a symptom of overwhelmed services? Slightly more people dying because, for example, there's 1 nurse to 3 patients on ICU instead of 1:1 care?
I don't know how these factors are accounted for in these analyses.

@everythingthelighttouches

Hi Marsha

Hope this is right and makes sense.

The graph shows the percentage of people being tested who test positive for either the “new variant or others”.

So for example, in London, in the middle of the graph, just after 26th December, about 4% of people who were tested were positive (3% new variant , 1% other variants ). As a fraction of positive tests new variant accounted for 3/4.

Now it has reduced (as has the total number of people testing positive).

On 16th January, about 3% of people who were tested , tested positive (2% new variant, 1% other strains). As a fraction of positive tests the new variant now only accounts for 2/3.

Thanks v much yes I get you I think.

But one last question, sorry, given the orange line is not going up why do you think another new variant could become growing rather than Kent variant merely decreasing?

Here comes Boris.

Oh no, higher mortality with new variant.

😫 not data like response

I was thinking something was going on as got a text alert from our surgery today saying a sharp rise in cases. But looking at cases in our area they are on a downward trend. The last alert from them was 31/12. Slightly worrying.

I wonder if that changes the vaccination schedule ideas for phase2? Surely they will have to go down the age groups if death rate is higher ?

DH just asked something that I'd appreciate your thoughts on:

Are we sure that the vaccination centres aren't causing further spread?

Pussy someones mentioned this the other day after being in one and their thread was deleted.

Apparently there were issues with ventilation and my own experience of being in hospital recently was no window open anywhere.

I hate to say it but I wouldn't be surprised. There's surely at least some small risk of increased infection with getting large groups of people to one place, no matter how much 'covid-safe' measures are put in place.

I'm no COVID denier, but the cynic in me says it seems to be a bit of a coincidence that the R rate has reduced then Boris announces the new variant is possibly more deadly?
It seems this is to make us remain compliant with the rules. Why do they need to treat us like idiots?