Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I hope to god this doesn’t tie in with the controversial REACT data that appeared to show a levelling off (certainly not decreasing) during w/c 6th Jan.

One explanation the study director gave was that REACT could potentially pick up an early signal...

I’m a bit clueless on this but I was also wondering why percentage of new variant in London decreasing compared to other parts. But overall the R rate is now lower in London and SE than anywhere else in England so that doesn’t point to a scary new variant taking over surely ?

I’m not sure why that orange line means a new variant is there either?

Can someone explain in basic language

Marsha yes, possibly.

Then the increasing proportion would be the “old” variant (20A.EU1), hopefully.

@MarshaBradyo as far as I understand, there is no evidence that the new variant is more transmissible amongst younger people. There is a theory that it was but no incontrovertible proof. Correlation vs causation etc etc.

And therein lies the issue with all this new variant speculation. We simply are not able (from what I’ve read) to drill down the data needed to definitively say “this strain does this, transmits like this etc”.

My (probably erroneous) interpretation is that in London and SE in particular schools were open AND they were in Tier 2.

So double whammy ability to spread. Both schools and tiers (especially pubs closed) seem to be bringing it down to similar levels to normal variant? Spreads easily with lots of loud talking?

I've always felt the "impact of Xmas" was actually more about the run up to Xmas. Office parties, meeting for drinks etc. Which you could only do in some areas.

But that doesn't seem to fit for a reason my tired brain can't fathom.

I guess maybe various explanations to do with different levels of immunity to different strains in different groups could be conjured up to explain this pattern? Someone on Twitter was going down that path.

Will be thinking on this!

Ok thanks but the part I don’t get is that the orange line which represents other positives is not increasing

In London chart and East

So why is there thinking around a new variant growing?

What I think we can take away is that it is incredibly irresponsible of media (and gov, or are they the same thing??) to post definitive headlines about strains when so much is unknown and unproven. It is scare mongering and most importantly, it is excellent ammunition for anti vaxxers.

@MarshaBradyo I haven’t read anything about a new variant growing so far. The initial take away seems to be a (perplexed) positive one from the majority.

@TrashedWarrior yes but remember schools shut on 14th Dec.

[quote Msloverlover]@MarshaBradyo I haven’t read anything about a new variant growing so far. The initial take away seems to be a (perplexed) positive one from the majority.

@TrashedWarrior yes but remember schools shut on 14th Dec.[/quote]

When did tiers change in London?

@TrashedWarrior
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_England_(2020)

you can look it up here

Schools in South East mostly ended term on 18th. Tier 4 creation and announcement on 19th.

We finished school on 18th SE London I think it was typical

Thanks:

14 December –
◦ Health Secretary Matt Hancock announces that London, most of Essex and parts of Hertfordshire will move to tier 3 restrictions from Wednesday 16 December following an increase in COVID cases in the south east and the identification of a new strain of the virus that spreads much quicker.

Cynical I know, but if London was anything like the NE at half term, that's one weekend of last hurrahs...

Also, did schools in London close on the 14th? Not on the timeline. It was the 18th for most of the country. Some even open on the 22nd.

But much of south east went into tier 3 sometime in week leading up to this (Kent was in tier 3 from end of lockdown 2)

This shows a marked decrease in teen infections /opportunities for onward transmission in schools:

Ooops sorry. Our nursery finished earlier.

Here is a an interesting thread about it:

twitter.com/wespegden/status/1352607414823084032?s=21

London went into Tier 3 16th Dec and Tier 4 20th Dec

I don’t think it has saturated all households, although that is an interesting theory. I think there’s still plenty of “naive new hosts” in Kent and London

I wasn't talking about saturating all households! I was meaning that in the situation where it's more transmissible in a household, you'll get more new infections in a household of the new variant, but once that stops, you'll be the same.
ie 1000 households have CV in at the start 50% are new variant.
because the new variant is much more effective in household transmission, then 500 cases are created from that, but only 100 cases of old variant (say). This inflates the percentage of new variant cases (5/6th's of new cases here were old variant despite only 50% of cases at the starting situation) However these 600 of he cases can no longer infect other people in their household as there is no-one left in it uninfected, and the chance of test&trace (and informal tracing) working is much higher on a more transmissible variant as you're more likely to have a direct contact of someone with symptoms.

So after the initial spike, in a situation where you're locked down, you no-longer have the things which encourage lots of positive discovered cases from an index one. It wasn't about households being exhausted, just that the percentage of positives that come from a single household being different.

No idea if I've been clear.

Hi Marsha

Hope this is right and makes sense.

The graph shows the percentage of people being tested who test positive for either the “new variant or others”.

So for example, in London, in the middle of the graph, just after 26th December, about 4% of people who were tested were positive (3% new variant , 1% other variants ). As a fraction of positive tests new variant accounted for 3/4.

Now it has reduced (as has the total number of people testing positive).

On 16th January, about 3% of people who were tested , tested positive (2% new variant, 1% other strains). As a fraction of positive tests the new variant now only accounts for 2/3.

1401 deaths

40261 cases.

I've just looked at the graph by specimen date for the different nations separately. It looks to me like Scotland, and possibly NI could well be rising again.
I'm not sure it's looking as hopeful as I thought it was, although England and Wales still look like they'll be going down.

Vaccinations passed the 400k mark; 409,855 first dose yesterday and 2,760 second dose yesterday. 2 of the first doses are PIL. DP and DA coming through in the stats tomorrow .

Considering ONS data shows primary/nursery rates are climbing. These settings will continue to seed infection in the community. I’m genuinely worried. I think they will have to get a lot tougher (for hopefully a lot shorter time) so we can get back to some sort of normality. I’m worried this half arsed thing is going to keep us in perpetual lockdown and I can’t stand it.