Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

If you have relatives that might be hard to reach for the vaccine, it might be worth you or a tech savvy ish person seeing if the medical centre/ gp surgery etc has an active Facebook page you can follow. Ours has been brilliant at regularly updating info about vaccine progess, how they will be contacting patients, how their processes work, etc - it's been great (and the same updates are on their webpage). Appreciate most will not be doing this but might be worth checking or suggesting!

I think the benefits of freeing up administrative burden in this case are underestimated, as much as one might be able to design the perfect priority list. Actual supply seems to be holding things up where I am.

I'd assume that old ppl would have landlines? Am I mistaken?

Why do you ask Sun ? A lot do have landlines . Not sure that GP surgeries and health centres will use landlines to contact ?

@TheSunIsStillShining

I'd assume that old ppl would have landlines? Am I mistaken?

In my case yes. I’m 67. I use mobile data for everything, even WFH. I’m amazed how well it coped.

There is limited vaccine supply, every region got some to get going and regions with more elderly are then being prioritised for the next tranche of vaccine supply. That isn't a mistake, it's sensible logistics. There are a lot of people included in the groups, and they've been promised mid Feb jabs. Little local issues of one town getting done first are the responsibility of CCGs, who are having to report their progress against priority, so those will be addressed and may again be planned logistics. There are 26 reporting vaccination days between now and 15th Feb (including yesterday that's reported later and the declared end date 15th); at average jab rate 350,000 per day that allows for 9.1m more jabs by then. Assessments that there is an issue appear misplaced.

And when I am at work, I and my colleague in his 50s are forever having to sort out IT issues - both hardware and software - for our younger coworkers in their 20s, 30s, 40s, as well as the older ones.

R rate has just been updated. 0.8-1 nationally
East of England 0.6-0.9
London 0.7-0.9
Midlands 0.9-1.2
North East&Yorks 0.8-1.1
North West 0.9-1.2
South East 0.7-1.0
South West 0.9-1.2

www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/over-50-gp-surgeries-nottinghamshire-4914851

This is quite an interesting story in terms of vaccine roll out. The government target is that all care home residents should be offered a vaccine by Sunday. Nottingham needs to run a skeleton service in over 50 GP surgeries today to meet this target. We were second last only to Suffolk in percentage of over 80s vaccinated in yesterday's data release.

All my elderly relatives had texts for their appointments. My 90+ yo neighbour over the road had a call from the GP a few weeks ago to update him, he said he gave them his mobile for contact because he didn't want to risk missing the call and was even more pleased to hear it was text. Elderly people living in their own homes can have capabilities!

It's a regional issue where there's crap mobile phone signal and will affect all age groups. It will affect every other medical service they've offered before too, so it's up to those CCGs to have effective processes that include calling up non-responsive patients and sending earlier letters.

By the way, anyone who lives or has relatives living in mobile blackout zones, it's really worth using the signal checker to make sure they're on the best network for their area: checker.ofcom.org.uk/mobile-coverage. There can be a lot of variation in coverage.

@Whatever9999

R rate has just been updated. 0.8-1 nationally East of England 0.6-0.9 London 0.7-0.9 Midlands 0.9-1.2 North East&Yorks 0.8-1.1 North West 0.9-1.2 South East 0.7-1.0 South West 0.9-1.2

0.8 to 1.1 for Scotland too.

Looking at the bigger picture I do think that all this discussion about who gets the vaccine first (not this in this thread, I mean in general) is a good thing. I think it'll help a great deal to combat the anti-vaccers rhetoric. People who are antivax are generally not easily changed by scientific arguments. They tend to be suspicious of anything politicians tell them is a good idea. But they are influenced, like everyone is, by the subtext of these debates, which is that there's not enough vaccine for everyone who wants it (yet) so it must be a desirable thing. I read about an experiment with a class of children who were given unlimited currants as a snack each day, but a carefully rationed number of dried cranberries - at the end of the experiment they all said how much they loved cranberries and currants weren't nice. Another class had the experiment the other way round and they all loved currants by the end. Vaccine = scarce = desirable is a strong rhetoric.

Very good point @Firefliess.

@NuttyinNotts - that's fantastic, I hope more areas do similar. Pull everyone together, do it quickly and then it's done and onto the easy groups.

@Whatever9999

R rate has just been updated. 0.8-1 nationally East of England 0.6-0.9 London 0.7-0.9 Midlands 0.9-1.2 North East&Yorks 0.8-1.1 North West 0.9-1.2 South East 0.7-1.0 South West 0.9-1.2

Good to see in recently hard hit areas eg London

Caught this on Lucy van Dorp’s Twitter

“ The percentage of people with new variant compatible positives has decreased in London, the South East and the East of England in the week ending 16 January 2021; in other regions, increases in new variant compatible positives have generally levelled off.”

mobile.twitter.com/ONS/status/1352589226878107648

What do you make of that??

Maybe another even more spreadable variant is spreading in London, SE and E, which hasn't yet reached the other regions.

You’ve both lost me

It has decreased in London but it makes sense?

More seriously, household transmission from the large spike increases before lockdown has fizzled out in those areas due to exhausting the potential household members available to infect. So we're no longer seeing the positives dominated by household members from the more infectious form.

@peridito

Why do you ask Sun ? A lot do have landlines . Not sure that GP surgeries and health centres will use landlines to contact ?

I'm assuming that old ppl mostly have landline phones. So could be contacted through that. At least that's the stats I'd look at when designing notification system. Basically notification type priority: mobile call or sms > landline call > email > post > person (eg - could be feasible in small villages) In HUngary almost everyone has a landline phone in their home as through that it's mostly free to call anyone. But I don't know how it is here.

@everythingthelighttouches I’ve just been reading about this. Fascinating. It seems that what we thought we knew about the new variant (it being 70% more transmissible for a start) is not correct. A good reminder that so many of the ‘facts’ and data we are being presented with as proof is actually no such thing and is merely the starting point of a working hypothesis.

Some theories bouncing around Twitter include it being more transmissible within certain age groups (eg teenagers) but generally even lots of very smart people seem baffled.

Cases overall have decreased in London, but the reduction in percentage of cases of the Kent variant means there must be another strain gaining ground. BBC also reported it's possible that the South African variant is spreading. Totally fictitious examples;
Say old variant has decreased from 1000 cases per day to 800, Kent variant decreased from 35,000 to 28,000 cases per day, and South Africa variant increased from to 4,000 to 7,000. Cases dropped from 40,000 to 35,800.
Could be really bad news, or it could be similarly exposed people catching one strain instead of another. Hard to tell.
(Is that what it's called now, Kent? I've been seeing that a bit in the press.)

But the orange line that is other positives hasn’t increased that much in London?

And in East it’s dropped a bit

I’m missing why this would mean another variant is growing

We need to know of the other variants what exactly is now representing a larger proportion of new cases.

Could be “old variant”, which suggests that the “new variant “ isn’t as transmissible or earls more transmissible in children and now far less kids in school....

Could be SA variant, in which case..oh bloody hell....

I don’t think it has saturated all households, although that is an interesting theory. I think there’s still plenty of “naive new hosts” in Kent and London.

Hmm... of in search of those pretty graphs Emma hodcroft makes with the colours representing variant prevalence. Back in a bit...

No use .
And she says that countries preferentially sequence S drop out (which U.K. is definitely doing) so not representative.

Actually, I don’t see the SA variant on there?

Everything new variant would spread more quickly with schools open as younger age more transmissible - I thought this would be the factor that’s changed?