Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Well said Roses .

My partner in early 70's ,fit and healthy ,vaccinated yesterday . SE London .

Relative in mid 70's ,ECV and shielding ,89 miles away in Suffolk not a whiff of a vaccine .And he is mobile enough to wander up to the top of the road to catch the elusive mobile phone signal .

In England, I would have gone even simpler and just used GP registered population, [Grin] In my view, council, resident data just confuses the picture.
Step 1 - assess quantity of vaccines needed for each wave based upon practice profile and registers of vulnerable patients in younger groups. Order Vaccines in the right quantity for each phase.
Step 2 - Plan - Work with community trust providers on plan to reach a) care homes & housebound patients, b) those who can attend surgery c) those suitable to invite to large central facility - ie patients of working age who can travel.
Step 3 - Invite - phased invites to groups B and C. crack on with vaccinating group A
Step 4 roll out in phases to Groups B and C.

What I suspect has happened, is that local healthcare politics have played out in their usual way. Large, well-resourced surgeries who are represented on local health groups have got their vaccine supply, ahead of small surgeries whose GPs are less engaged. There is a practical element here, in that these practices are also likely to be well organised, but locally the surgeries where practice managers / GPs are involved with their CCG have influence.

probably worth noting that London, and especially deprived areas of east London, still have a number of single-handed GPs.

@TheSunIsStillShining

Again, this isn't a particularly hard process to manage. How I would have started:

1. get all population data and NHS/vaccination point catchment area data and overlay them. (results council has 5x ppl, 1x falls into cat1)
2. do some minor data mining to create a list/table based on jcvi criteria with names/addresses/1st does/2nd dose columns.
3. submit numbers (not data) to some central place where they have the data on pop per area vs genpop data > get a % and based on this assign the vaccine numbers. (result: London has 17% of UK pop, and the cat1 pop within is 50% > insert some math to come up with the actual proportions)
4. give back each center a number of vacc + dates on when they will get it and than they can just get on with organizing it.
5. start organizing central distribution - btw: who is doing the distribution? military/dhl/amazon/deliveroo?

The only problem point where this can go south is if NHS/catchment area doesn't = to any other kind of data grouping. But then, I suppose, they could have gone one tier up to match population data area with NHS/catchment areas.

This is from the top of my head. I'm trying to poke holes in the process logic purely from a logic perspective.

Coming up with an algorithm that does the above should be fairly simple, max a week with loads of testing.

Your problem point though is the entire issue. GP's have their own system, hospitals have theirs, CCG's have to gather data individually from them, "the NHS" does not have a organisation wide compatible system anywhere in it's workings. Those that do, some GP practice groups for example, are often those who are managing their populations really well. It's a problem that has been going on for years and years. Look up NHS digitisation, plans are always on-going, but implementation is always a hard nut to crack.

@RosesforMama that sounds like a local CCG decision, which is a real shame as you would expect them to be closer to their community. I received an email today outlining the plans for vaccinations in my London Borough and it advised that if you don’t have internet access to book through the local CCG portal that you would need to contact your GP to book

I can’t get too upset about the details because I think it’s so incredible that over 7% of the population has had a dose already.

On the most recent episode of How to Vaccinate the World one of the doctors involved was essentially praising the simplicity of the directive they were given as to who to vaccinate, because it was allowing them to just get on with it without debates.

@BigWoollyJumpers
writing a parser nowadays that transforms excel, json, whatever digital format into a unified database is one of the easiest jobs.
In general -afaik- NHS digitalisation failed because of a few reasons, none of them being technical:

• gdpr
• willingness to share data

In this case though I think the limited amount of centralized data that is needed and can be provided anonymized even, coupled with gov's emergency powers should be able to cut through red tape.
Yes, there are systems that have no capacity to export any data, but even those create reports. Meaning that they do produce an output. Since September the consolidator parses could have been written million times over.
It's not a case of can't, but a case of won't.
I love democracy as much as the next person, but there is a limit -in terms of process design- where there has to be one person/group and they decide and not let all players do as they chose*. Especially when it's not like giving Joe Smith's full medical, insurance, financial, criminal history into one database for gov.

*Imagine Unilever HQ not getting country level sales data because they have issues with format or data conversion.

@ATieLikeRichardGere

I can’t get too upset about the details because I think it’s so incredible that over 7% of the population has had a dose already.

On the most recent episode of How to Vaccinate the World one of the doctors involved was essentially praising the simplicity of the directive they were given as to who to vaccinate, because it was allowing them to just get on with it without debates.

This....

An example here from our local area where vaccines are being given to non priority groups in order to avoid wastage
If they had more notice of when vaccine stocks would arrive, they would be more able to properly prioritise
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/people-under-40-parts-trafford-19678469

TheSunIsStillShining. Not disagreeing with you at all. It is what DH does for a living. It should have done, but wasn't. Generally the case.

Ah I didn't know that big.

Can someone pls enlighten me why Susan Mitchie is hated so much? I've just a read a twitter thread and it was vile. I read her wiki page and still don't get it. But I have not followed her career for years, so maybe missing something?

ONS survey is out here

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/22january2021

Not a lot of decrease in overall community prevalence, 1 in 55 in England, although children now have a slightly lower incidence than young adults.

[quote lurker101]@RosesforMama that sounds like a local CCG decision, which is a real shame as you would expect them to be closer to their community. I received an email today outlining the plans for vaccinations in my London Borough and it advised that if you don’t have internet access to book through the local CCG portal that you would need to contact your GP to book[/quote]
The whole point is, that people like my mum don't routinely check for emails. She only realised earlier in the week that the GP she has been registered at for 40 years probably didn't have an email contact for her (it didn't). She said "my GP took down my email address and told me the GP consortium running the vaccines have put all the details on Twitter. But I don't know how Twitter works."

It's depressing.

@RosesforMama

Part of the issue in the East Anglian area where my mum lives us, I suspect a failure of understanding the elderly properly by whomever the logistics people are. Their priority contact method is via text message, but in my mum's village the mobile signal is so terrible that many elderly people don't have phones as they can never get a signal. Then the back up is email and finally via letter. Then the booking system once you get contacted is online, with a back up phone number "only if you have no online access", that is constantly engaged. For elderly people living alone without computer or mobile phone, it's really poor. They'd have been better taking a mobile unit into each village and put it in the parish newsletter, with volunteers knocking on.

Presumably the planners all live in big cities with great mobile signal and internet access. Crazy isn't it.

interesting article on long covid research below - how immune response begins early may determine outcome :

www.nationalhealthexecutive.com/articles/severe-long-covid-risk?utm_source=National%20Health%20Executive&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=12115920_NHE%20Newsletter%2022%20January%202021&dm_i=IJV,77OPC,PDSQ48,T8AKZ,1

The GP suggested she drive into the local town twice a day to get a mobile signal to check if she had had her text. Buy she's supposed to be shielding

@RosesforMama yes I agree, it’s becoming apparent how much elder/less tech savvy people are being left behind at the minute with so much being disseminated online for speed and many places only accepting mobile payments etc.

@RosesforMama
In our area they are sending a letter to invite you to phone the surgery to make an appointment. We had a number of people phone in at my work concerned it was going to be email/text only and they wouldn't get it.
I phoned the surgery and they said it was letter for all, and they were texting in addition if they have a current mobile number.

TheSun I'm going to add healthcare politics to your list once again. I promise I don't spend my life railing against this sort of stuff, but I lived it for several years!

Many GPs didn't want to share "their" data. NPfIT fell apart long before GDPR and culturally the concept that personal data belongs to individuals wasn't a thing. Or enough of a thing. There were very reasonable concerns about data security, but also fears about how it would affect contract payments.

The fears were then fed to the media...

Most patients, are actually astonished that the NHS don't share data and are sick of having to repeat information over and over.

Anyone designing processes has to assess all cases. That is the foundation of this profession - to think of everyone and not just your own circumstances. How can anyone miss this and still get paid???

Don't forget, in the first round of requests a very high percentage of GP's declined to take part in the vaccination roll out. Until they got organised, in some cases forced to organise, into groups, many regions had no cover at all. Many GP practices also declined to cover care homes until they were paid extra to cover the costs, fair enough, but at the very beginning the lack of will was very disappointing.

GPs in my local area were well organised, all the GPs in three towns running a vaccine hub in a large public building, got going really fast, from memory they opened on 4th January.

My DIL, doctor on a covid ward got her vaccination in December, son nurse on covid ward still waiting.

It just seems chaotic to me. The NHS chap on briefing yesterday talking about people sharing log on details so non priority people can jump the queue. I so want them to get this right but I'm getting more and more worried. We have a friend in his 70s, very severe Parkinsons, another almost 80 with serious heart problem both still waiting.

Does anyone know if there are figures showing who has been vaccinated, not just the headline figure but more detailed.

Another good article from Tom Chivers on the REACT study unherd.com/thepost/latest-infections-data-may-be-less-gloomy-than-the-headlines/

@PurpleWh1teGreen
I find healthcare politics at this level disgusting. And I think patient data belongs to the patient/guardian primarily. Eg: have a card. If you want your doc info transferred then insert into terminal and data gets copied. If you are willing to share with other HCP you slip it into the slot, other doc then has access. This is the worse option, imo, but even this would mean that I have all my data.
(We're moving soon and I started to get our papers in order and I have a full wide binder of all my medical records for 25 yrs from multiple countries and one for my H and son. All this could fit on a pendrive/card.)

We have an interesting issue here in that our postal system is collapsing for two distinct reasons : covid absence and relief postmen misdelivering post, and absences in a huge sorting office causing regional problems. Couple that with older people sometimes not having technical know how or gadgets and missed appointment are becoming an issue. My area was slow to roll out as it is. In the area nearby with a large Asian community religious leaders have taken to going around and knocking on doors and hand delivering letters.

In Scotland (Borders) my 80 year old DF with no spleen has yet to hear a thing...

sun it is because she has been a member of the Communist party I believe. Apparently this makes a difference to her vast experience and scientific and medical knowledge...