Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Remember all the problems we had with student addresses in the autumn?!

Place marking

I'm catching up and I know it's been discussed but this is infuriating.

The NE certainly had the highest rates of death in the first wave; im not sure what that's like now.

The NE certainly has some of the highest rates of deprivation in the U.K. if not the highest. Certainly for children and that's worsened terribly.

Council leaders have been proactive since September safeguarding rates; the NE's restaurant and pub industry has been under restrictions since then and decimated as a result.

Part of that was due to a great wave of student cases in September. (I too have wondered if students not returning to some areas is why rates have been so low, especially Newcastle LA.)

This is appalling.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/we-being-penalised-being-best-19674493

As I mentioned repeatedly at the time, Newcastle distinguishes their cases not registered with a local Gp address. So it was easy to track via location and that info. Very concentrated areas of student accommodation.

@Trashedwarrier I don't know how you can really think it's fair to vaccinate 60 year olds in one are when there are care home residents and 90 year olds not done in an other. There was never any plan to vaccinate the NE first because it has quite high deprivation. It just happened because they didn't allocate the first batches of vaccine very fairly, and had something of a free for all with some areas managing to set up faster than others. If the limiting factor is supply then it's absolutely fair to stick to the prioritisation plan already in place and do it by age group.

Ask yourself how you'd feel if you lived in a deprived London borough with some of the highest case rates in the country, but behind in vaccinations? You'd think it was fairer that your 85 year old mum must wait because the vaccine must go first to a 65 year old in Newcastle?

On a different note, testing numbers may be down a bit today in our area at least as apparently our drive though test centre has blown away in Storm Christoph

There was never any plan to vaccinate the NE first because it has quite high deprivation

I'm not saying that at all and neither is the article.

obviously We want vaccines distributed according to population rates of the vulnerable and I'd even though that areas with high rates should be vaccinated first.

What was "the plan?" For distribution?

Some areas will be organised more swiftly than others.

The ne seems to be penalised for doing this according to these reports?

My only point re deprivation is that schools and social services desperately need to be reopened in all areas, but especially those where child poverty is very high.

We need the whole country to move together on this. Vaccination rates in London and SW are way behind. Vaccines need to be distributed fairly according to population in each area, so that the priority groups are vaccinated first in the country as a whole. And I speak as a resident of the NW which has the worst overall death rate and one of the furthest ahead on vaccinating

@MRex

For context, in SW London some vaccination centres announced they weren't expecting any vaccine this week to enable other areas to catch up. In the SW, *@ancientgran*'s care home residents and staff as well as her son in hospital staff aren't done yet. It isn't a North versus South issue, it's just trying to rebalance access equitably.

Very true, we need it to be equitable. We have have had fewer cases overall in the SW but it shouldn't mean we are forgotten and we have shared our facilities e.g. Kent patients being sent to Derriford in Plymouth, Dorset patients going to Exeter.

@ceeveebee

We need the whole country to move together on this. Vaccination rates in London and SW are way behind. Vaccines need to be distributed fairly according to population in each area, so that the priority groups are vaccinated first in the country as a whole. And I speak as a resident of the NW which has the worst overall death rate and one of the furthest ahead on vaccinating

That was a typo, I meant London and SE

I am getting very frustrated. My mum lives in a village in East Anglia. She is in her 80s and had no contact regarding vaccination. Meanwhile others in the village in their early 70s have already been vaccinated. Turns out their GP surgery is in a different local town and in that town they have done all their 80+ and moving down their list. Very frustrating.

I'd love to know why there's been an imbalance in vaccination organisation then.

As perhaps that's the shocking aspect.

Gp surgeries and Trusts were told in September to begin preparing the logistics, at that point to be ready to begin in hypothetically in October.

Hcps in the north and south I personally know have been involved in the organisation of this.

@TrashedWarrior

There was never any plan to vaccinate the NE first because it has quite high deprivation

I'm not saying that at all and neither is the article.

obviously We want vaccines distributed according to population rates of the vulnerable and I'd even though that areas with high rates should be vaccinated first.

What was "the plan?" For distribution?

Some areas will be organised more swiftly than others.

The ne seems to be penalised for doing this according to these reports?

My only point re deprivation is that schools and social services desperately need to be reopened in all areas, but especially those where child poverty is very high.

Reported on local news a few days ago that a centre in Plymouth could only operate one day a week due to getting a small amount of vaccine. That isn't Plymouth not being organised.

I think you will find a fair bit of poverty in Plymouth.

To be clear, I completely didn't mean my concerns to be read as "because masses of Londoners left London now we are infected, damn those Southerners".

In fact, had it been masses I would have expected the feared Christmas peak a week or two ago because the Kent variant would have spread more quickly. What is a lot more likely in my view is a small handful of cases scattered hither and yon which is only now starting to increase fast enough to show up in the figures.

Presumably if they're still doing lab testing we'll know shortly if that is the case.

Maybe move this discussion to a seperate thread ?

Reported on local news a few days ago that a centre in Plymouth could only operate one day a week due to getting a small amount of vaccine. That isn't Plymouth not being organised.

That is shocking. And why and how has that occurred?

Surely data exists on population rates of elderly and vulnerable? Or is this naive?

I -as a common user of the internet- can get population data on Richmond upon Thames borough, spliced by age, education, work type, etc.
Councils, NHS, gov agencies surely have way more data at their fingertips.
Again, I see evidence of un-coordination, badly though through process design and general let's just get on with whatever attitude. With the amount of granular data that any gov has on it's citizens this should be a much smoother exercise.

Apologies if I've had an unreasonable tantrum over this, I've perhaps been too assumptive of the processes of distribution being equitable to start with.

Something has gone wrong somewhere.

(I must say I'm used to a very slick nhs in this area of the NE; I'm frequently horrified by how difficult it seems to be to get even basic Gp appointments in other parts of the U.K. I've been told of a few reasons for this though and it wouldn't be easy to rectify elsewhere.)

I think that's the million dollar question. Because if vaccine allocation has gone wrong, then a slow down for the NE would be justified somthat thenspeedmin other areas can increase. If allocation isn't the limiting factor, then slowing down the NE isn't going to manage to speed up those areas that are tardy.

@TrashedWarrior

Reported on local news a few days ago that a centre in Plymouth could only operate one day a week due to getting a small amount of vaccine. That isn't Plymouth not being organised.

That is shocking. And why and how has that occurred?

Surely data exists on population rates of elderly and vulnerable? Or is this naive?

Heaven knows but I do know that in large parts of the South West we have an older population. Lots of people like to retire here, we came in our 40s so although we have been here along time I suppose you could argue that now we are old we have relieved pressure in home area and put it here but I think the number of over 60s and 70s arriving here must create an inbalance.

Obviously the South West is a big area and the issues in Bristol will be different to a village in South Devon but I'm sure you get the point.

There are also areas of real deprivation down here, sort of hidden by the "wealthy" retirees moving in. As an example one third of the population in Torbay are in areas that are amongst the 20% most deprived in England. In Plymouth you have Two LSOAs that are in the most deprived 1% in England.

Again, this isn't a particularly hard process to manage.
How I would have started:

1. get all population data and NHS/vaccination point catchment area data and overlay them. (results council has 5x ppl, 1x falls into cat1)
2. do some minor data mining to create a list/table based on jcvi criteria with names/addresses/1st does/2nd dose columns.
3. submit numbers (not data) to some central place where they have the data on pop per area vs genpop data > get a % and based on this assign the vaccine numbers. (result: London has 17% of UK pop, and the cat1 pop within is 50% > insert some math to come up with the actual proportions)
4. give back each center a number of vacc + dates on when they will get it and than they can just get on with organizing it.
5. start organizing central distribution - btw: who is doing the distribution? military/dhl/amazon/deliveroo?

The only problem point where this can go south is if NHS/catchment area doesn't = to any other kind of data grouping. But then, I suppose, they could have gone one tier up to match population data area with NHS/catchment areas.

This is from the top of my head. I'm trying to poke holes in the process logic purely from a logic perspective.

Coming up with an algorithm that does the above should be fairly simple, max a week with loads of testing.

@swg1 - new variant spread was everywhere in December already; identified in 60 local authorities including Wales and Scotland: "Covid-19: New coronavirus variant is identified in UK | The BMJ" www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857.
Idiots travelling don't help of course, because they can speed up the variant taking hold, but a few cases here or there were already in the numbers. That's a big factor in why places like Liverpool started getting hit again in my opinion, new variant rather than additional seasonal mixing. (Just opinion, no stats to back that bit up.)

The army were organising the distribution I think, didn't they have an army officer on one of the briefings talking about it?

Part of the issue in the East Anglian area where my mum lives us, I suspect a failure of understanding the elderly properly by whomever the logistics people are. Their priority contact method is via text message, but in my mum's village the mobile signal is so terrible that many elderly people don't have phones as they can never get a signal. Then the back up is email and finally via letter. Then the booking system once you get contacted is online, with a back up phone number "only if you have no online access", that is constantly engaged. For elderly people living alone without computer or mobile phone, it's really poor. They'd have been better taking a mobile unit into each village and put it in the parish newsletter, with volunteers knocking on.

@TrashedWarrior

I'd love to know why there's been an imbalance in vaccination organisation then.

As perhaps that's the shocking aspect.

Gp surgeries and Trusts were told in September to begin preparing the logistics, at that point to be ready to begin in hypothetically in October.

Hcps in the north and south I personally know have been involved in the organisation of this.

Don't forget, in the first round of requests a very high percentage of GP's declined to take part in the vaccination roll out. Until they got organised, in some cases forced to organise, into groups, many regions had no cover at all. Many GP practices also declined to cover care homes until they were paid extra to cover the costs, fair enough, but at the very beginning the lack of will was very disappointing.