If schools were a big issue why aren't infectious dropping yet?

[Shamefullync]

Im aware that English schools have a loose keyworker criteria then Scotland. Scotland is still seeing record deaths hospital admissions etc. Quite often on mm schools got blame for rising infections but most schools have been closed for a month now and our numbers are depressing. Whats causeing it ?
Btw i do think schools need to stay closed with the key worker criteria tightened.

Numbers of new infections are definitely declining now.

Hospitalisations are delayed by a week or so, they should start declining any day now.

Deaths are another week or so behind that. The light is at the end of the tunnel.

numbers of infections in england are dropping massively.

People can be in hospital for a few weeks before they die. There's a lag in death rates after hospital admission, a lag in hospital admission after getting symptoms, a lag in getting symptoms after exposure. We're still seeing the effect of the end of school term and Christmas in my opinion.

They are.

We had Christmas shopping rush and then Christmas holidays recently...

Are your case numbers falling?

Look for your area. Ours are quite quickly, in London.

Lingering christmas/ new year shenanigans I'd say. I think covid fatigue is really high. I live rurally ( sufficient space indoor and out and devices) and am naturally antisocial but even I am tired of it all. Would love to have coffee with a friend

They are falling.

It will take time for that to show in hospital figures though.

Schools closed and then infections started falling a couple of weeks later. There’s a lag because of knock-on household transmission and incubation periods. Deaths and hospital admissions keep rising for longer because people don’t get really ill and die straight away. We also have the added complication of the more infectious variant spreading to more areas. That’s all leaving aside the fact that in some places a high % of children are still attending school.

Case numbers in Scotland are declining (its where I am)
Don't think our schools will go back any time soon

Are you asking about:
*infections
*admissions to hospital
Or
*deaths?

They are all different things and are up to 3-4 weeks apart minimum.

Infection rates are certainly dropping in school-aged children due to schools closing (English ONS random sampling)

Cases are falling. Quite considerably. Look at the big barometer half way down the page on www.covidmessenger.com

278 councils out of 315 have falling cases week-over-week.

Two weeks ago, only 1 council had falling cases week-over-week.

And daily hospital admissions are starting to fall or plateau in many areas:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

Because the schools in many areas are still pretty full.

1100 fewer cases in my borough compared to the week before. That's a staggering drop!

1. Cases are dropping,
2. Death rates lag around 2+ weeks from case rates.
3. Some schools are still pretty full

but most schools have been closed for a month now

Schools are “closed”, not closed.

Should we just close schools forever?

Then people will not get any infections ever. We will all be safe!!!

Who needs an educated youth?

They are,,,why do you think they are not?

Our school has just closed two bubbles with 30ish kids each due to kids being sent into school with symptoms and multiple cases in each bubble. So it is still spreading in schools. But yes, we are past the peak of new infections. Touch wood that will be the last peak but government really need to hold their nerve and not end lockdown just because figures are decreasing.

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow

Should we just close schools forever?

Then people will not get any infections ever. We will all be safe!!!

Who needs an educated youth?

I think a significant number of people on mumsnet would love that....

Cases are falling in general and are significantly lower in school aged.

I think a significant number of people on mumsnet would love that....

I think all anyone wanted was for schools to be safe.

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow in NZ all the schools are open, everything except for international travel is happening as pre covid.

As an island we could have pursued a zero covid policy, but we only started restrictions on air travel yesterday.

With the highest death toll in the world, despite 3 lockdowns, something has gone very wrong here. Personally I think it's the complete failure of test and trace.

But as people have said, infection falling now almost everywhere, I'd expect hospital admissions to start falling in the next week and death rates to start dropping in 2-3 weeks.

Schools are still quite busy with keyworker kids as the definition of keyworker is quite broad. So it's not like we will see the drastic sort of changes expected if we sent ALL kids home.

I've just received news of another outbreak at my kids primary school and now it's claimed the life of one of the parents. Schools are very much still open and still breeding grounds for covid.