If schools were a big issue why aren't infectious dropping yet?

[Shamefullync]

Im aware that English schools have a loose keyworker criteria then Scotland. Scotland is still seeing record deaths hospital admissions etc. Quite often on mm schools got blame for rising infections but most schools have been closed for a month now and our numbers are depressing. Whats causeing it ?
Btw i do think schools need to stay closed with the key worker criteria tightened.

@Northernsoulgirl45

I think a significant number of people on mumsnet would love that....

I think all anyone wanted was for schools to be safe.

One billion times this.

@DayBath that's tragic. My stepfather has just tested positive, he is a headteacher, postponed retirement to see the school through the pandemic, I'm so anxious for him and my mum.

Schools are still open. Teachers at my daughters school tested positive this week.

Infections stopped growing at exponential rate weeks ago.

Plot the daily change in case count on a logarithmic axis & the decline in case growth goes back to about mid/late December.

@TallTowerFan

They are.

Indeed

They are?

They're dropping like crazy.

On covidmessenger up to and for a few days after the schools shutting I'd say 95% of council areas had rising rates. Now it's more like 5% have rising rates. It's a dramatic difference.

Yes like others I've been looking at the rates on Covidmessenger. Which is a week out of date, but around two weeks ago every single area was red meaning numbers of positive tests were rising. I had never seen that before. Now nearly all are falling.

Question is, if it is mainly schools being limited to only some children that is driving that, what on Earth do we do about that? There has to be a way of making schools safer.

Our cases per 100,000 have nearly halved in a fortnight

When we are in a full lockdown it works, no are dropping dramatically.

We move to slow.

Mandatory masks in all school areas, extra breaks and stuff to allow students out and be mask free, along with self isolation bubbles, and tests and ventilation...

Infections are dropping. It can take people a couple of weeks of having covid to need to be hospitalised and then longer to die. Some may leave hospital, only to be readmitted at a later date and die then.

It’s often a long and drawn out process.

Nurseries are getting outbreaks my 3 year old has caught it from nursery

Ok you have our attention now what?

And I do think it's shutting the schools more than the lockdown which has made the diference.

Tier 4 previously and rates kept going up. Really the only difference for a lot of people between tier 4 and lock down is the schools being closed.

It took the schools closing to get the numbers to come down.

Maybe we should keep the schools shut and open the cafes and gyms.
Joke....

They are??

@StillDumDeDumming

Yes like others I've been looking at the rates on Covidmessenger. Which is a week out of date, but around two weeks ago every single area was red meaning numbers of positive tests were rising. I had never seen that before. Now nearly all are falling.

Question is, if it is mainly schools being limited to only some children that is driving that, what on Earth do we do about that? There has to be a way of making schools safer.

It’s not about making schools safe. It’s about getting the vaccine out as quickly as possible so that far fewer people need hospital treatment. Once that’s happened it won’t really matter how safe, or otherwise schools are.

@Covidcovid

And I do think it's shutting the schools more than the lockdown which has made the diference.

Tier 4 previously and rates kept going up. Really the only difference for a lot of people between tier 4 and lock down is the schools being closed.

It took the schools closing to get the numbers to come down.

Maybe we should keep the schools shut and open the cafes and gyms.
Joke....

I think that tier 4 was introduced for the first time on 19 December, so no one was ever in tier 4 but with schools open?

@Covidcovid

And I do think it's shutting the schools more than the lockdown which has made the diference.

Tier 4 previously and rates kept going up. Really the only difference for a lot of people between tier 4 and lock down is the schools being closed.

It took the schools closing to get the numbers to come down.

Maybe we should keep the schools shut and open the cafes and gyms.
Joke....

Actually London hospital admissions suggest that the infection rate started to lower whilst in tier 4. Just before lockdown.

That is probably only because so many schools had lots of year groups out or had been closed by public health England.

So your point is still valid. Just thought I would add that. In case anyone questions your point

London came out of lockdown on the 2rd and straight into tier 4

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

London came out of lockdown on the 2rd and straight into tier 4

With schools open

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

This is a helpful map showing cases and it is updated daily. You can also look back at infection rates since August.

@lljkk

Infections stopped growing at exponential rate weeks ago.

Plot the daily change in case count on a logarithmic axis & the decline in case growth goes back to about mid/late December.

Pretty much when schools closed then. Since they close around 19 Dec , with private ones closing earlier . Exponential growth stopping is not the same as growth stopping though of course

@noblegiraffe

Infection rates are certainly dropping in school-aged children due to schools closing (English ONS random sampling)

It's interesting that age group 35 to 49 has dropped as sharply as the school ages. Seems children do pass it on as this seems the age most parents would be

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

London came out of lockdown on the 2rd and straight into tier 4

Have I gone totally mad and lost all sense of time - quite possible! - I thought London went into tier 2 on 2 December, tier 3 on 16 December and tier 4 - which was newly created at the time - on 19 December?