If schools were a big issue why aren't infectious dropping yet?

[Shamefullync]

Im aware that English schools have a loose keyworker criteria then Scotland. Scotland is still seeing record deaths hospital admissions etc. Quite often on mm schools got blame for rising infections but most schools have been closed for a month now and our numbers are depressing. Whats causeing it ?
Btw i do think schools need to stay closed with the key worker criteria tightened.

I think the same. Schools have been closed for over a month so I do not see how schools were driving it.

I bet those mumsnetters going on and on and the million 'shut schools down' threads are eating thier words now they will be stuck at home, homeschooling for months, esp when there is no evidence that it was the schools!!!

@Remmy123

I think the same. Schools have been closed for over a month so I do not see how schools were driving it.

I bet those mumsnetters going on and on and the million 'shut schools down' threads are eating thier words now they will be stuck at home, homeschooling for months, esp when there is no evidence that it was the schools!!!

Do you mean we would have seen these drops earlier?

In London it’s correct schools closed last term, and meant to be no Christmas mixing, or not much.

Cases have plummeted this week with schools somewhat open.

Some are dropping but we are still seeing the effects of people mixing at new year plus some schools have so many in due to the rule of one keyworker only.

I looks to me like schools were driving infection since numbers have gone down dramatically since schools partially closed. (They are not closed because many children are still in school.).

My area of Scotland is beginning to see cases drop.

England’s key worker status seems like a complete joke compared to ours. England generally seems to much laxer every time we try to keep numbers down?

Cases have plummeted this week with schools somewhat open.

Secondary schools which were the main covid plague pools have barely any kids in. 5% I think.

It's interesting that age group 35 to 49 has dropped as sharply as the school ages. Seems children do pass it on as this seems the age most parents would be

Yes, I've been watching that too.

@RuleWithAWoodenFoot

It's interesting that age group 35 to 49 has dropped as sharply as the school ages. Seems children do pass it on as this seems the age most parents would be

Yes, I've been watching that too.

And a lot of teachers.

Well A. They are dropping significantly and B. Lots of schools have plenty of kids in. Our local primary has about 50% in (including some who's parents WFH but are essential workers...and I think they should be keeping theirs at home, but that's a different argument)

Sky News said that today's numbers for testing positive, and down by about 12,000 to last Tuesday's figures. Which is really good news. Unfortunately, deaths are very high (over 1,600 recorded today), but it is exactly as Chris Whitty said - cases will drop, there will be a few weeks lag, until deaths do too. He said last week that they expected deaths to rise.
And as a teacher at secondary, where we had lots of absences, isolations and burst bubbles in the fortnight before Christmas holiday - I'm certain that schools (especially secondary) were driving it.

Remember there’s up to a ten day lag from exposure to testing positive due to incubation. Covid messenger lags 7 days behind. So a 2-3 week lag overall.

It was a week ago I saw covid messenger reflecting falling rates. Which is approx 3 weeks after schools closed, maybe slightly longer. But I think the Xmas free for all may have added to a blip in increase of infection rates so cancelled out the first week of school closure.

edit: are down, not and down.

I bet those mumsnetters going on and on and the million 'shut schools down' threads are eating thier words now they will be stuck at home, homeschooling for months, esp when there is no evidence that it was the schools!!!

Wrong on all counts. I was very vocal about the fact I thought schools should be shut and I'm glad they are. I'm homeschooling two children (one autistic) from home while working full time and it's tough but absolutely the right thing. There is a lot of evidence that schools were driving transmission. You just have to look at the graphs for what happened at half term (before the second lockdown) and what's happening with case numbers in the age groups for kids and parents now to know that.

And quite frankly you don't even need evidence or to have very many brain cells to know that daily mass gatherings (sometimes of thousands) all across the country with no mitigations for covid would and did create mass spread of the extremely contagious virus. I don't mean to sound juvenile but... DUH!

It's looking increasingly like 2m isn't enough space with this new variant.

Schools haven't been fully open since 17th December - that's over a month now. Locally speaking 2 care homes were the reason for the numbers. Sadly, many of those have now died.

@Covidcovid

And I do think it's shutting the schools more than the lockdown which has made the diference.

Tier 4 previously and rates kept going up. Really the only difference for a lot of people between tier 4 and lock down is the schools being closed.

It took the schools closing to get the numbers to come down.

Maybe we should keep the schools shut and open the cafes and gyms.
Joke....

I think Tier 4 probably would have worked if it had had the time to do so. By the time we went into lockdown, the virus was completely out of control again.

Well for the thousands testing positive in the last few weeks - driven by Christmas and New Year mixing rather than schools?

Infections are dropping. Hospital admissions and sadly deaths are a couple of weeks behind.

@Remmy123

I think the same. Schools have been closed for over a month so I do not see how schools were driving it.

I bet those mumsnetters going on and on and the million 'shut schools down' threads are eating thier words now they will be stuck at home, homeschooling for months, esp when there is no evidence that it was the schools!!!

Schools definitely did drive it. A huge number of children, especially secondary schools, had the virus by the end of last term.

I disagree. Very few enjoy homeschooling but it’s accepted that it’s the situation we need to be in right now.

@Timeontimeoff

Well for the thousands testing positive in the last few weeks - driven by Christmas and New Year mixing rather than schools?

No one should have been mixing for new year. The issue, as was always said, was the large number of secondary school children (many asymptomatic) who went and spent Christmas with family and passed the virus on. So it’s indirectly schools that caused a Christmas surge in positives but those cases are decreasing very rapidly now.

Hardbackwriter

Yep you are right. I think it is oblivious all becoming a big blur now.

I live in London too. So you would have thought I would get that right

They are dropping.

Schools went back for 1 day, 2 weeks ago. It's been just enough time for those who have caught it from that one day to have spread out around a bit and infect other people. My school have just had to close as we've had several positive cases within a few days of each other.

Also, many schools are still taking in A LOT of children. Full bubbles of 30 with several adults to support those with an IEP etc. So still no social distancing... Hence the continued spread of the virus.

Did you not listen to Nippy today? She stated that case numbers have stabilised and even declined.

Infection rate is dropping and the biggest drop is in the younger age groups, not the older ones.