Good News Part 6 - we're gonna need a bigger boat. Yeah Science!

[InterfectoremVulpes]

Good news and vibes only please

@FourTeaFallOut

4,973,248 first jabs today!

Super numbers

You are right about the trajectory. One article banged on then near the end said this research is based on our current rate of vaccinations. Well we can all see that is being increased each week. We have massive stock in warehouses being checked and new vaccines hopefully approved by Easter. They are panicking people for no reason.

Hmm I’m not so sure they are panicking people for no reason......just no good reason!

Coercive control seems to be the reason. Maybe the assumption is that the compliance will plummet if the —sheeple— public aren’t terrified witless?

Also, the first tranches of people are harder to reach - fewer mobile phones to text, more travel issues, care homes...

I reckon it will speed up as we get to the tech savvy 70s.

Almost 5 million first doses! So close to my prediction 😆
So, when will we get to 6 million...?

Monday? 2 more high days, then two more lower days?

6 million by Tuesday I reckon.

@FourTeaFallOut

I do think they are all over the place at the moment. Although I'm not sure they are trying to achieve much apart from advertising revenue with hyperbolic rhetoric. They have vaccinated 2 million people this week, that seemed ridiculous not so long ago. Another 65 hubs opened today. Who knows what next week will look like? It's not a smooth trajectory.

Sorry I meant the community sampling such as REACT

6 million by end of play Sunday. Go big or go home

@TheChineseChicken

Forgive my ignorance but what is the purpose of the random (small) sampling studies now that we have such high testing capacity? What do they add other than confusion?

I want to know the answer to this top. It seemed valid last year when so little testing but now we are at mass testing it seems irrelevant.

In that case, I do think they are employing fear to nudge conformity. It's rude.

Go big or go home grin
This made me smile. I like your style Zogstart

7 million by close of play Weds to be reported on Thursday!

I think it’s because the random sampling picks up more asymptomatic people? I’m also wondering whether that could explain the higher figures, since it could reflect a % people in the study testing positive who have previously had Covid and are positive for a second time (but without symptoms). Just guessing though.

So pleased to see on the dashboard today that hospital numbers have finally “gone green” and are lower based on the rolling average for the last 7 days. Feels like a big win today in the face of all the “cases are actually rising” research that’s been blasted across all news channels today

Very early signs that where I am (East Suffolk/North Essex) patients admitted/in hospital/on ventilation may have stabilised and even peaked. (as of 19th)
Numbers on ventilation have been pretty stable for the last 5days after a small peak on 15th, fingers crossed numbers start dropping now for the right reasons.

Also a week on week drop of 34% in Tendring's numbers which means it's dropping almost as quickly as it rises.

I’m going with 6 million reported Sunday, and 7 million reported by Wednesday.
Ambitious but doable I think...!

I ventured into the general board. I'm not doing that again. I like it here!

@Glenorma I agree with you.

Panicking people is counter productive.

I see goodish to good news all around.

@2fallsagain same here - had to come away about 1 minute in!

@TheChineseChicken

Forgive my ignorance but what is the purpose of the random (small) sampling studies now that we have such high testing capacity? What do they add other than confusion?

Although we have high testing capacity, we are still far from testing 100% of infected people. The sampling studies are a scientific way of estimating the number of infected people nationwide. It's really useful information for the government to have.

The ONS survey is big enough to give detailed information about incidence (the new infections every day) broken down by age and region etc. I'm so very pleased we have it!

@2fallsagain

I ventured into the general board. I'm not doing that again. I like it here!

I've just come from there. I love this thread! I'm also incredibly encouraged by the fact that vaccine roll out seems to be getting a bit quicker every day..... we're winning, step by step!

What I'm sick of is people commenting on tiny bits of data as if it's the definitive result. (For eg Israel/Pfizer information).

We have never before been so focused on scientific information; never have had these numbers coming to us for other diseases and treatments. Suddenly we're all scientists and statisticians thinking we can work out what's happening.

Human nature to want to know everything ASAP. But foolish behaviour. And I know I've been guilty of it too.

@TeaInTheGarden

I’m going with 6 million reported Sunday, and 7 million reported by Wednesday. Ambitious but doable I think...!

I'm with you on this - I thinkScotland will start going faster now as well which will help add to the total. Excited about this vaccine roll out.

@InterfectoremVulpes

7 million by close of play Weds to be reported on Thursday!

I reckon there is a 2m lag in the "system". So although I think you are right, about 7 to 7.5 million reported by next week, it could be up to 9 million .