Thank you everyone for the kind words over the last few days. I am so glad the site is helping people
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It is inevitable that we will have a bit of bumping along, especially in a week or so when cases (hopefully) fall to quite low levels. Isolated outbreaks can knock the week-over-week changes quite a lot when cases are low. But even at these high levels, there will be a bit of volatility.
To be honest, I had thought we would have more of this "noise" ie- flipping from red to green. As @MarshaBradyo noted, the remarkable magnitude of the fall in cases in most councils following lockdown has kept this noise to a minimum - the sharp falls overriding any localised outbreaks which are mostly small by comparison.
But we should wholeheartedly expect that, when cases fall to low levels (and normalise for the reduced contact in society owing to lockdown), we will see much more noise week-over-week as cases "bump along the bottom" so to speak - flipping from green to red and back again.
At that point monitoring the week-over-week changes in a barometer may not be the most insightful way to track progress but, depending on what is going on, I will try to work out a graphic that captures what's going on.