So when the vulnerable are vaccinated the lockdown experiment ends right?

[orientalknife]

Because life cannot go on like this and we are ruining kid's future

This is where they turn to the behavioural science experts. Stay at home to normal is a massive shift in public psyche.

It’ll be quicker than imagined right now I reckon.

Drop the heightened sense of alert. Offer some financial incentives. We’re tightly spring right now but a vast amount of people would participate in normal life pdq without restrictions.

Plus falling death rate will impact a lot. If the number is far lower people won’t be so scared. If they are that is. Many are just suppressed and fed up.

SeriouslyMole and EmmanuelleMacro, You're both talking shite concerning the NHS. It compares favourably on many aspects of health care delivery internationally. There are of course areas to improve, its not perfect, but suggesting that it is not fit for purpose and that it is fossilized is ludicrous

www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/articles/big-election-questions-nhs-international-comparisons

A march you say OP?

That sounds interesting.

Some guy in the US suggested marching last week.

It didn't go well.

And yes OP, I entirely agree with you too. Lockdowns evidently DO NOT WORK. We are on the third one - if it worked we would not be in this position yet again.

You only have to look at how cases increased in the areas in lower tiers compared with higher tiers to see that they do work. The Isle of Wight had hardly any cases a month ago but because everyone went there to shop and socialise (because things were open) they now have practically more cases than anywhere in country. You can't say that lockdowns haven't worked because of the position we are in because we could have been in a much worse position. About 20% of the population have been infected that there have been at least 100,000 deaths. If the whole population got infected that would be 500,000 deaths not to mention deaths due to the fact that people couldn't get hospital treatment for other conditions. You may not think that's a big deal but most people do.

I've been saying the same thing since the beginning too. I feel increasingly, well, puzzled and pissed off by the lack of any careful political and ethical thinking around these questions (about if the vaccines fail)

Indeed, but try to open a dialogue where you wonder - not state, but wonder - what that might look like and you get called a f**king tool
I realise everyone's wound up, and happily that particular filthy insult's been deleted, but what a shame there are so many of them throughout these threads

Puzzled it would be a very different future without working vaccine. I can imagine what would happen and it would be very tough. But we wouldn’t be able to lock down as much as we have. Maybe we’d use seasonality more to create income,

Falling death rate will impact a lot. If the number is far lower people won’t be so scared

I hope so too, though reading endless posts expnding the parameters of when folk will feel safe to do x, y or z I'm not entirely convinced

Interesting idea about seasonal opportunity though; I guess time will tell

Why are people saying lockdowns don't work? They do work. The whole point of lockdown is to bring the numbers of cases down to a level where the hospitals can cope with the sick and the dying. Surely to anyway with at least half a brain that is a sensible approach. What's the alternative, let the virus spread to the point where people are dying in the streets because the hospitals are overflowing?

Absolutely agree, OP. There are people who seem to think they can mitigate all risks forever. Covid will be a risk for all of us, forever. It’s unutterably shit, but we need to start getting our heads around that. Waiting for that risk to hit zero is impossible, dangerous and frankly neurotic. We need to work out what risk is acceptable (and to my mind it’s when hospitals can cope, and that should be fairly soon after the most vulnerable categories are vaccinated) and then we get on with things s

Deadringer you're quite right that lockdowns work at the time, but the point seems to be that they're not sustainable in the long term and that there has to be something else if we're not to just keep kicking the can down the road

Whether that'll be the vaccines or a conversation around how to handle things if they don't work remains to be seen

[quote LimitIsUp]SeriouslyMole and EmmanuelleMacro, You're both talking shite concerning the NHS. It compares favourably on many aspects of health care delivery internationally. There are of course areas to improve, its not perfect, but suggesting that it is not fit for purpose and that it is fossilized is ludicrous

www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/articles/big-election-questions-nhs-international-comparisons[/quote]
Did you actually read the report you linked? It basically said that International league tables have been used to support arguments that our health service is one of the best in the world – and also that it is a failing system.

Take from that what you will.

@2020quelhorreur

Absolutely agree, OP. There are people who seem to think they can mitigate all risks forever. Covid will be a risk for all of us, forever. It’s unutterably shit, but we need to start getting our heads around that. Waiting for that risk to hit zero is impossible, dangerous and frankly neurotic. We need to work out what risk is acceptable (and to my mind it’s when hospitals can cope, and that should be fairly soon after the most vulnerable categories are vaccinated) and then we get on with things s

Rather than "when hospitals can cope", I think it should be when hospitals are actually safe themselves, i.e. when infection rates WITHIN hospitals fall down to low levels. Nearly all the people I know who've caught covid have caught it in hospitals or care homes. Whether that's vaccination of all hospital/care home staff, or better infection control procedures or whatever. It's not acceptable to go into hospital with a broken hip and then die a month later from covid.

Goady, nasty, conspiratorial post OP, you sound like you belong on Facebook.

You clearly didn't read it SeriouslyMole

"It basically said that International league tables have been used to support arguments that our health service is one of the best in the world – and also that it is a failing system"

This was there opening statement and the article endeavoured to unpick this. Dont be disingenuous. The Kings Fund conclusion was:

"While we should not rely too much on international comparisons for the reasons set out above, they do emphasise one of the unique features of the NHS – that access to care does not depend on how much money you earn. The key building blocks of our health system – its public funding base and the comprehensive range of services provided (mostly) free at the point of use – have made the UK a world leader on equitable access to care.

They also shine a spotlight on the quality improvement challenge in the NHS. The UK’s focus on monitoring and improving quality is impressive, as is our performance in areas like chronic heart failure and elective waiting times. However, while recent improvements on some key outcome indicators like cancer survival rates are encouraging, there is further to go to bring some important measures of quality and outcomes in line with those of the best in the world. The King’s Fund’s work has shown that engaging clinicians in the task of understanding and tackling the wide variations in clinical practice that persist across the country will be key to improving quality in the UK."

The irony of suggesting that I didn't read the article!

The take away is that there are some things that the NHS do really well, and some areas which need attention, but "fossilized" and "not fit for purpose" it is not

"There are people who seem to think they can mitigate all risks forever. Covid will be a risk for all of us, forever."

Two things here. Firstly I don't think anyone on this thread has advocated mitigating all risks forever. Secondly, Covid will not be a risk "forever". No pandemic has been a risk in perpetuity. I don't know anyone in the UK who has suffered from Bubonic plague, cholera or polio recently do you?

It's not acceptable to go into hospital with a broken hip and then die a month later from covid

It's not acceptable either to go into hospital with a broken hip and be assaulted by a member of staff, but it happened to me last September

Depending on what's perceived to be "safety" in a hospital you might have a long wait to see it assured

@WorraLiberty

Could get expensive for some of you...

Fines
Fines differ depending on which country you are in. People who do not pay a fine could be taken to court, where they could be fined an unlimited amount.

England
People aged 18 or over can be fined:

£200 for the first offence, lowered to £100 if paid within 14 days
£400 for the second offence, then doubling for each further offence up to a maximum of £6,400
Wales
People aged 18 or over can be fined:

£60 for the first offence, which may be lowered to £30 if paid within 14 days
£120 for the second offence and for each further offence
Scotland
People aged 16 or over can be fined:

£60 for the first offence, lowered to £30 if paid within 28 days
£120 for the second offence, then doubling for each further offence up to a maximum of £960
Northern Ireland
People aged 18 or over can be fined:

£60 for the first offence, lowered to £30 if paid within 14 days
£120 for the second offence, then doubling for each further offence up to a maximum of £960

Yawn

@Mousehole10

there will be a massive shift in public opinion once it hits the year mark in March

Any excuse is good to fuel unrest, right? Now it's the 'one year mark'...what will it be next?

Whether that's vaccination of all hospital/care home staff, or better infection control procedures or whatever

@user1497207191 the ‘whatever’ part of your statement is the problems here. You can’t blindly demand the impossible.

If we had a foolproof way of combatting hospital/care home acquired infections we’d be doing it. It doesn’t exist so if you’d kindly fill in the blank I’m sure lots of people would be very grateful.

Peoples expectations of what is actually scientifically possible are way off.

@Cornettoninja

Whether that's vaccination of all hospital/care home staff, or better infection control procedures or whatever

@user1497207191 the ‘whatever’ part of your statement is the problems here. You can’t blindly demand the impossible.

If we had a foolproof way of combatting hospital/care home acquired infections we’d be doing it. It doesn’t exist so if you’d kindly fill in the blank I’m sure lots of people would be very grateful.

Peoples expectations of what is actually scientifically possible are way off.

Well, nurses changing their gloves between patients would be a start, as would them wiping down blood pressure cuffs and finger oxymeters between patients. If they aren't even doing that as a matter of routine, there's not much hope is there?

‘there will be a massive shift in public opinion once it hits the year mark in March’

I don’t know anyone who thinks like this. No one. Why are you so sure you’re right?

@Madhairday
What do you think the word eugenics means? I can't see how it has any relevance to this conversation.

I don't want to limit ICU care to people with Covid. What an arrant and silly thing that would be for me (a non-medic) to propose. In fact, given the risks of within-hospital and patient to doctor transmission, I would imagine (if forced into picking a false binary) that it would make more sense to patients who needed it for other reasons and had a negative Covid test.

You need to learn to read what people are saying. Personally, I loathe play dates. My child enjoys them and I'd like them to start again, but it's hardly the critical issue. A year without education is the critical issue. Play dates (a daft new-fangled phrase to many of us) are only being mentioned on this thread disingenuously, because no one wants to say that it's fine for a small child to go without education or human interaction outside the home. For the average 5 year old, school, seeing relatives, meals with family friends etc occupy about 50% of waking hours in normal times; play dates perhaps a couple of hours a week.

I'm also a writer. And an old child. And a natural introvert. Nothing wrong with any of those things. I had a solitary childhood and learned to make the best of it. But I am a relative outlier. And my childhood was still infinitely more sociable than anything afforded to any child in the country right now. The gifted young football player isn't playing football; the musician isn't having piano lessons; the extrovert is at home on a screen. It doesn't take a capacious imagination to realise that most children enjoy school, most children aren't bullied, and that, without school, some children are having their future chiselled away, day by missed day. Try to give a shit.

@Puzzledandpissedoff
Yes, I agree! It's bizarre how pointlessly insulting people are on this website. People on Mumsnet are constantly telling me that I must be fucking stupid, retarded, a tool, needing crayons etc. if I don't agree with their current idee fixee. In my real life, it's often the opposite; students and junior academics treat me with an intellectual deference that I don't always feel I deserve. So I find it bracing, in a weird way. I don't know anyone in real life who has difficulty understanding (or critiquing) a bar chart, or who makes basic fallacies in argument of the correlation = causation kind.

This is why schools should be open! I understand these things because I was fucking lucky and went to a brilliant school before another eight years of (free!) undergraduate and postgraduate education. Not because I have some native genius.

On another thread saw that you'd broken your hip and had a shit experience. Very sorry to hear that. I hope it's mending now.

The seemingly throw away (but all too clearly intentional references to your PhD, to students and academics deferring to you, and to not being a 'native genius' (you clearly believe that you are), together with references to other posters perceived intellectual deficiences i.e. "I don't know anyone in real life who has difficulty understanding (or critiquing) a bar chart, or who makes basic fallacies in argument of the correlation = causation kind" - are cringeable. Please stop, its making me wince