So Gav says schools could stay shut beyond half term.....

[Coldwinterahead1]

I'm guessing after Easter. What does everyone else think?

@Thewheelsonthebus23. Yes, my DD is manager at one of the big pub chains.

I dont think anyone knows when it is going to be - not even Boris JOhnson (who to be fair says that).

I suspect Schools are sensibly currently planning on being shut until the 31st March (which is the end of the lockdown period) and making plans for that. That makes sense. Definitely shut until then - no message would have come out at all about that because there is not enough information.

Pubs are the same - furlough currently ends at the end of April so one assumes that plans are in place until at least then. 5 months being closed may well make sense as they shut in December and May would be 5 months later. But again there is no plan to know.

I think after the February review we will have some kind of framework set out as we did in May (the timings are fairly similar actually given that some places were in lockdown in December) and exactly what the numbers look like in terms of cases and vaccinations are the priorities.

@dogsaremypeople

My friends school (she's a teacher) have been told they will be shut until at least 31st March.

Teachers know nothing about when we will reopen (I am one). We find out on the telly what is happening-or when Peston leaks it on Twitter, just like the rest of the world. There is no insider information in schools-it is all just speculation.

Some people in this thread are saying after half term, others say March, after Easter, or September. Probably one of them will be right. Not because they know, but just because they guessed.

@dogsaremypeople

My friends school (she's a teacher) have been told they will be shut until at least 31st March.

Teachers do not know any more than the rest of us. The government doesn't know yet so teachers don't either.

I am interested in what the govt thinks is a safe number of people vaccinated to open up society to near normal. Because, whilst the majority of the deaths are in the very elderly, they don't make up the majority in intensive care at all. We're now hearing that most people in intensive care are between 45-65. That certainly tallies with people I currently know in ITU - 4 of them aged 31-68. (Three HCPs and one education staff, BTW).

What percentage of hospital beds and ITU beds is acceptable to be taken up with Covid cases whilst continually postponing other treatments?

Because just vaccinating over 70s and ECV is not going to stop ITU filling up, it doesn't seem.

@SansaSnark

The thing is, schools could be open now if any effort had actually been made to make them Covid-19 safe - either repurposing other spaces and splitting classes, or some kind of rota system. It's clear having schools open with no social distancing drives transmission.

But it didn't/doesn't have to be this way. If the government had enough imagination/ambition to see past their all or nothing approach to schools, then we wouldn't need such long school closures.

And ironically, in the summer, it was actually unions pushing for an ambitious solution to schools and the DfE ignoring them.

At least part of the reason schools shut is that the Naht (national association of headteachers) started legal action against the DfE and the DfE declined to try and prove schools were legally a safe working environment - which I think tells you all you need to know, really. And safe doesn't mean "no imminent risk of death" - a high risk of catching a nasty illness is also unsafe.

It's also worth bearing in mind that a lot of people in hospital are under 65 and in groups that won't be getting the vaccine any time soon.

So, instead of going for an all or nothing approach that clearly doesn't work, we need to be thinking about solutions for schools that will make them actually safe for both teachers and the wider community.

My personal feeling is that the most viable solution for secondary school is some kind of rota system, with students getting at least some time in school each week.

For primary, where people need the childcare more, it's possibly about recruiting extra temporary staff and spreading students out more - probably by using non-school buildings that aren't in use right now.

Neither of these solutions are perfect obviously, but I think they would be more sustainable than the current all or nothing approach.

I agree. This is what should have happened from September and this is certainly, in my eyes, the best plan for opening as soon as possible.

The problem they have is all of their own making. The vaccination programme will not be stopping ICU/hospital demands it seems. Which is the issue. Yes it will stop the very old dying but it isn't them needing ICU. It is people our age. Parents of school children and grandparents.

Primaries do not have enough staff to split classes. A class TA is a thing of the past for most schools. If you think your class has one, they are often 'tied' to a child's funding. Not always but in most cases.

The only way to solve this is to actually direct money at schools, like they did the nightingale hospitals and courts. School budgets are broken.

@SansaSnark

The thing is, schools could be open now if any effort had actually been made to make them Covid-19 safe - either repurposing other spaces and splitting classes, or some kind of rota system. It's clear having schools open with no social distancing drives transmission.

But it didn't/doesn't have to be this way. If the government had enough imagination/ambition to see past their all or nothing approach to schools, then we wouldn't need such long school closures.

And ironically, in the summer, it was actually unions pushing for an ambitious solution to schools and the DfE ignoring them.

At least part of the reason schools shut is that the Naht (national association of headteachers) started legal action against the DfE and the DfE declined to try and prove schools were legally a safe working environment - which I think tells you all you need to know, really. And safe doesn't mean "no imminent risk of death" - a high risk of catching a nasty illness is also unsafe.

It's also worth bearing in mind that a lot of people in hospital are under 65 and in groups that won't be getting the vaccine any time soon.

So, instead of going for an all or nothing approach that clearly doesn't work, we need to be thinking about solutions for schools that will make them actually safe for both teachers and the wider community.

My personal feeling is that the most viable solution for secondary school is some kind of rota system, with students getting at least some time in school each week.

For primary, where people need the childcare more, it's possibly about recruiting extra temporary staff and spreading students out more - probably by using non-school buildings that aren't in use right now.

Neither of these solutions are perfect obviously, but I think they would be more sustainable than the current all or nothing approach.

Completely agree with this. It's very concerning that the government are yet again 'wasting' the lockdown period by refusing to look at ways to make schools safer once they reopen fully. Completely short sighted and likely to lead to far more problems down the line.

We've just had an email through from dcs school (secondary) asking for permission for lateral flow testing. So they are clearly at least preparing for the possibility of reopening after half term.

I think September the very earliest.

@dogsaremypeople

My friends school (she's a teacher) have been told they will be shut until at least 31st March.

Who told them?

My headteacher has been told nothing. She, like the rest of the population, generally finds out what's happening by watching the press briefings. We are sent nothing in advance. To be honest, even when the government announces something schools don't tend to be sent any guidance for a few days after either.

I suspect what has happened is that your friend's school or trust has just made an assumption that that's when it might open.

Taikoo really so you think we are going to be in this lockdown until September or that they will change their minds about schools opening first?

Primary schools are now going to get lateral flow tests delivered. I suspect with Secondary schools doing the same they may open them up a little more after half term.

@Quartz2208

Taikoo really so you think we are going to be in this lockdown until September or that they will change their minds about schools opening first?

Primary schools are now going to get lateral flow tests delivered. I suspect with Secondary schools doing the same they may open them up a little more after half term.

I don’t believe September but also don’t back on the promised tests.

I’m a secondary teacher and there is only one school in the whole of my LEA that has a test site up and running.

Using lateral flow tests in schools instead of the previous plan of isolating close contacts of positive cases may well make things much worse in schools!

It almost certainly will.

@Letseatgrandma

Using lateral flow tests in schools instead of the previous plan of isolating close contacts of positive cases may well make things much worse in schools!

There was talk about parents not schools doing lateral flows in primary schools yesterday by Dear Gav.

Can anyone think of how this might possibly go wrong?

We already had parents ‘disappearing’ because it was better than to have a child with a positive test which would stop them going to work. Also, lateral flow tests aren’t accurate.

Repeating the same mistakes is kind of what led us here. Them trying to do it a third time (cut corners) is not what is best for our children. It will result in school chaos again.

motherrunner the sad part of all of this and you can see it coming is that the more well off areas will get these things in and up and running. In these areas it is far far easier to follow the Government advice of staying at home because they are able to work happily from home.

The area where I live (SE/London) is coming down fairly quickly now. People are taking it seriously. We are near a massive vaccination centre and a smaller one. Most of the secondary schools are lateral flow testing those already in and have people willing to help administer the tests.

His words yesterday were he couldnt say and he did say it to area. So those areas that are coming down and having the testing sorted (I am not convinced by it by the way just reading what they say) will open up first

@Itisasecret

The problem they have is all of their own making. The vaccination programme will not be stopping ICU/hospital demands it seems. Which is the issue. Yes it will stop the very old dying but it isn't them needing ICU. It is people our age. Parents of school children and grandparents.

Primaries do not have enough staff to split classes. A class TA is a thing of the past for most schools. If you think your class has one, they are often 'tied' to a child's funding. Not always but in most cases.

The only way to solve this is to actually direct money at schools, like they did the nightingale hospitals and courts. School budgets are broken.

I would expect them to need money and extra space and extra staff to supervise the kids who are 'off rota' that week but need childcare as their parents are critical workers - be that retired school staff, gap students who deferred going to University - whatever, just some imagination and money needed. But knowing the government buried their heads in the sand last time, I highly doubt they are going to do anything different this time.

A primary here had more cases the first week of Jan than Sept -Dec put together and they have only had a fraction of the kids in. Local numbers are now higher than at the peak last year.

We are preparing ourselves for being home for the long haul tbh. I hope that doesn't happen but I suspect closer to Easter at best so I'm trying to mentally prepare now.

The problem they have is all of their own making. The vaccination programme will not be stopping ICU/hospital demands it seems. Which is the issue. Yes it will stop the very old dying but it isn't them needing ICU

It was my understanding that the vaccine stopped hospital admissions in 100% of cases?

I know so many people seriously close to breaking point. There will be so much damage to kids and parents mental health, kids education, so much increase in domestic/child abuse- people cant cope with the strain of this for months.... Its already overwhelming 1.5 weeks in. Primary schools need to go back ASAP!!!

Primary schools need to go back ASAP!!!

How do you propose this happens safely?

Or do you not give a shit about the covid side of things?

@sundowners

I know so many people seriously close to breaking point. There will be so much damage to kids and parents mental health, kids education, so much increase in domestic/child abuse- people cant cope with the strain of this for months.... Its already overwhelming 1.5 weeks in. Primary schools need to go back ASAP!!!

Schools, including primary, have closed because they are vectors for transmission. They won’t reopen until things are safer, no matter how much you want it to happen.

noblegiraffe what do you mean when you say "safely"? Who are you concerned about here- kids who don't really get it. Teachers or parents?

I'd give all teachers the vaccine ASAP- they need to be moved into a priority group. Then a return to the education bubbles we had after the last lockdown.

Do you not really give a shit about the children facing increased abuse at home because their parents are taking this all out on them? Do you not give a shit their education, social skills, development, happiness, wellbeing will suffer on a huge scale for years?

We've had our highest, sky-high death rates since schools have been closed for 1+ month- does this not show you that school were not to blame here?!!