We need to be given an end date

[Billie18]

Vaccinations being rolled out and there will be a date when the elderly and/or vulnerable will have been vaccinated. It should be possible to announce a date now when this will have happened. On this date all restrictions should be lifted. Why has no date been given?

@FloraFocus

Who is happy right now?

Probably johnsons mates who were given VERY lucrative ppe contracts

I was answering about these mythical happy MN posters. Not talking about the whole of humanity.

I think it's a misrepresentation of different personalities. I'm am a pessimist and I think that may help in crap times, low expectations. It does not mean I'm happy. Maybe it helps that I never expected to mix at Christmas/ have my kid's exams this year etc.

So no I wouldn't believe an end date if someone chose to give one to the nation.

[quote rwalker]@Seriouslymole
rwalker
I can't believe anyone intelligent would even ask the question.
I can't believe anyone intelligent wouldn't ask the question frankly.

Because there are to many factors to determine the course of this virus that we have little or no control over . Just look at the affect of new mutation .[/quote]
However, there needs to be an end to restrictions otherwise we could still be living like this in 10 years time, which is unsustainable economically, socially, mentally etc etc etc.

So, yes if you are remotely intelligent, you should be asking when the current restrictions are going to come to an end and whether different restrictions need to be in place (e.g. the elderly and CEV shield and everyone else moves on with trying to sustain an economy to support the NHS) or whether we need to "just live with it".

It takes a very different kind of intellect to just accept that we would live as we are living now for the foreseeable future.

It has already been said by previous posters and the government advisers that there will come a point where the risk from covid19 is felt to be acceptable to society as flu is.

Thinking restrictions are going to go on in perpetuity is in itself a bit silly tbh.

Are we all restricting up our young adults in fear of the Spanish flu? Or keeping kids from swimming pools in the summer for fear of polio?

Anyway enough of the daftness. I'm away.

THis study is based on the US but gives some insight into the data there. It says end of 2021 is highest probability for beginning of the end www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end#

I think the beginning of the end will drag out forever

Sorry to be all doom and gloom

(e.g. the elderly and CEV shield and everyone else moves on with trying to sustain an economy to support the NHS)

...and there we go, quelle surprise.

OP I do completely see what you're sayin. I haven't RTFt but once elderly are vaccinated and vulnerable it really just needs to be a case of what will be will be. This is no life, I don't want to live like this much longer and government need to recognise this.

However they seem to measure things purely by the R rate and number of deaths and I see why to an extent as the whole thing is about the NHS. But I really just feel like taking my chances if this is going much beyond March at the absolute latest. It's getting ridiculous.

Even if the nhs buckles and people say - oh well what if you need surgery or have a car crash etc and can't get treated. Honestly I think I'd take my chances still. Problem is not everyone feels the same as me!

@HazeyJaneII

(e.g. the elderly and CEV shield and everyone else moves on with trying to sustain an economy to support the NHS)

...and there we go, quelle surprise.

Yes, and there we go. We need to protect a specific echelon of society, the rest of society needs to function. Why is that such a surprising concept?

I think the OP has had quite a lot of unfair stick on here.

It's not unreasonable to expect the government to have a plan, and say that when x% of vaccinations have been carried out and/or the infection rate falls under x per 100,000, y restrictions will be lifted. Not everything at once, but a phased plan.

@ssd why if you don't mind me asking. I'm a pessimist and expect a normalish summer (without festivals) and an NHS panic next autumn / winter. That is getting back to normal albeit with mask wearing / working from home encouraged for another winter season.

@puffinkoala

I think the OP has had quite a lot of unfair stick on here.

It's not unreasonable to expect the government to have a plan, and say that when x% of vaccinations have been carried out and/or the infection rate falls under x per 100,000, y restrictions will be lifted. Not everything at once, but a phased plan.

This may be difficult as we don’t know effect of vaccine on transmission. Plus case numbers don’t always equal same number in hospital, eg younger age groups v old.

The metric to watch is hospitalisation I reckon, and that is harder to date.

There is a vaccination plan of action.

[quote FloraFocus]@ssd why if you don't mind me asking. I'm a pessimist and expect a normalish summer (without festivals) and an NHS panic next autumn / winter. That is getting back to normal albeit with mask wearing / working from home encouraged for another winter season.[/quote]
I dont have any faith in the government to organise things probably, I believe it will be all 2 steps forward 3 steps back.

I get that. But every person vaccinated is a step forward and also every recovered person will have some immunity so numbers needing hospitalisation will drop.

The flu vaccination programme for my mum worked really efficiently this year. So I am cautiously optimistic.

"The vaccine" is only one piece of a much larger jigsaw, with the bare fact of 3 huge pillars that must cover the pattern of the covid virus, culture/economy, and the resources of health and care systems having a far bigger lead on it just now. It's a promising piece but at this point in time, still subject to a lot of unknowns that only more time can give any clarity on, so not worth putting all the eggs into its basket in terms of trying to project some stats forward and put a pin in a date on that basis. Uncertainty is horrible and wearying but a systematic path to mass distrust in foggy "truth" is poisonous, and there has already been much of this.

Scroll down to the last 6 paragraphs of this article - from 2017, so covid was not in the existing vocabulary or a speck on the horizon.
www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

@FloraFocus

I get that. But every person vaccinated is a step forward and also every recovered person will have some immunity so numbers needing hospitalisation will drop.

The flu vaccination programme for my mum worked really efficiently this year. So I am cautiously optimistic.

That's good.

I'm a worry wort, dont listen to me.

Agree Marsha : Hospitalisation has driven the crisis and control of that will signal the end of it.

I'm a worry wort too. I like to support others of my ilk!😄

I agree with you OP.

The whole point of lockdown was to prevent the NHS by becoming overwhelmed. One the most vulnerable, and ergo most likely to need hospital treatment, members of the UK have been vaccinated, there should be a plan to gradually scale back restrictions. We cannot live like this forever. I am fully aware the virus isn't going anywhere, but once we have established the vaccine sufficiently reduces the need for hospital treatment then we just need to live with it.

Not RTFT but I imagine you have had a lot of opposition, but I'm with you.

People saying this will go on and on can quite frankly gth. Go ahead and stay home if it suits you, the rest of us want to live our lives in a way that isn’t utterly intolerable. There is no chance I’m doing another few months of this.

[quote FloraFocus]@ssd why if you don't mind me asking. I'm a pessimist and expect a normalish summer (without festivals) and an NHS panic next autumn / winter. That is getting back to normal albeit with mask wearing / working from home encouraged for another winter season.[/quote]
I interpreted the questions as no masks, no 2m rule or any restrictions.

I agree that declining hospital admissions and deaths is what the politicians will be focusing on to see some restrictions lifted but I think that winter 2021 will be the critical test as that's the time of year that the NHS struggles the most and will be the test of whether or not the UK can cope with living with the virus permanently

I'll begrudgingly put up with this lockdown, with the vaccines being implemented etc.

But once they've done all the vulnerable people, there must be some opening up. And when it gets to the over 50s we must open up more. Then someone has to say Enough. The lockdown experiment is over. We must learn how to judge risk again--like Whitty has said. People will have to re adjust to the risks and society must open up. The only reason this whole lockdown business started is because the pandemic started in a totalitarian regime. Prof Ferg what's-his-face said as much. They 'got away with' implementing lockdowns for the first time in history.

I'm fully with the OP.