We need to be given an end date

[Billie18]

Vaccinations being rolled out and there will be a date when the elderly and/or vulnerable will have been vaccinated. It should be possible to announce a date now when this will have happened. On this date all restrictions should be lifted. Why has no date been given?

@LookWhatLaCatDraggedIn I just don't understand why though as surely a vaccine is a good thing? And in nearly 4 years we'd have natural immunity to a degree anyway - unless it mutates to a currently unknown form which wouldn't in the plans anyway!

Is next winter a write off? My business depends on it...

@CremeEggThief

That's very interesting, *@Imaginetoday*. Thank you for sharing.

Out of interest, what is the approximate success rate for the MMR? I naively believed it was close to 100%.

Quick look on line

Thank you, Imagine. Appreciated.

[quote namechangereq]@LookWhatLaCatDraggedIn I just don't understand why though as surely a vaccine is a good thing? And in nearly 4 years we'd have natural immunity to a degree anyway - unless it mutates to a currently unknown form which wouldn't in the plans anyway!

Is next winter a write off? My business depends on it...[/quote]
Natural immunity is not as good as vaccine induced immunity typically.
If you received a low viral load your immune system may not have produced much antibodies. We all know kids that get chicken pox twice.
Vaccine are typically 2 doses. The first sort of charges your immune system - it creates antibodies and the “memories” to produce those in the future. The second dose is fine tuning- from what I understand virologist etc don’t know exactly how it does this but it is this second fine tuning that gives you enhanced immunity and longer term immunity. I’m not a virologist but have a look online to understand more.

Jesus Christ, can all the Billy Bullshitters who know for a fact the ins and outs of death certification, who are bezzie mates with epidemiologists and whose 2nd cousin works for AstraZeneca.... just fuck off with their dodgy inside info.

(Oh and if their Great Barrington, focused protection, shield the vulnerable friends can fuck off as well, that would be just dandy)

Sorry, should have said..some vaccines are only one dose...I understand they fine tune if you like in one go...still better than natural immunity.

The info on the vaccines is all in the press!😄

The vaccine doesn’t stop you getting covid.

@HazeyJaneII

Jesus Christ, can all the Billy Bullshitters who know for a fact the ins and outs of death certification, who are bezzie mates with epidemiologists and whose 2nd cousin works for AstraZeneca.... just fuck off with their dodgy inside info.

(Oh and if their Great Barrington, focused protection, shield the vulnerable friends can fuck off as well, that would be just dandy)

If you’re referring to me, no i won’t . There are a lot of folks on here that don’t know facts and have not found out and are asking questions or making assumptions. I have some knowledge albeit very limited and I’m passing that on in the hope that

1. People will stop spouting nonsense and inform themselves and stop scaremongering
2. People are less anxious and scared when they have some information about the “unknown”

If you can’t be bothered to read facts then skip it.

I agree. I need an end date and some certainty. This is coming on a year now. They are rapidly vaccinating people and they should chart out a road map tracking vaccination levels with the easing of restrictions. I am ok with this final lockdown as a final push to get us through but then it has to end. My children need to be back at school and we need to start living again. They should be able to craft a road map now. Not set in stone but as least a vague map.

I agree. I need an end date and some certainty.

You don't need it more than anyone else. Doesn't mean you can have it though. And everyone's kids need to be back at school.

Right so 40 million doses will vaccinate 20million people which is less than a third of the U.K. population...very one else is going to get the coin flip vaccine known as the oxford vaccine. It's just not good enough.

@Imaginetoday - forgive me for questioning you but what is the difference between this vaccine - with no data to support impact on transmission or data to support length of effectivity (on severity of illness) and other vaccines - say measles?

Do other vaccines mean that you still be infected and infectious but less likely to suffer severe illness? I thought vaccines meant you didn't become infected. Data exists with older vaccines - even if we are ignorant of it - but not so much with novel vaccines.

Is there even RCT that show that people who have been immunised with novel vaccines have less severe illness, shorter hospital stays, lower mortality compared to those who have not been immunised?

Is a theoretical reduction of transmission based solely on less severe illness so less viral load?

Why aren't other prophylactic treatments used where evidence exists?

Are people with greater transmission risks (working outside the home, younger, public facing etc) not being vaccinated because impact on transition is unknown?

I can understand frustration and confusion and the desire for absolutes. Trying to deal with scientific uncertainties and match this to political optimistic truths is a hard place to be.

Well you can’t cure fucking stupid

It not the number of vaccinations done which will enable the restrictions to be lifted but the release of pressure on the NHS.
There will be a time lag between sufficient vaccinations and reduction hospital numbers that no one can predict.
Why would expect someone to give you an unrealistic expectation of certainty when the date is not certain.

For the same reason that colds/flu's don't have an end date?

Thank you @ceeveebee , I agree . I'm very much in "knuckle down and push through this" mode. It's dull but we will get there eventually. Never believing Johnson makes life a lot easier too.

@wixked they have far more vaccines on order than people in the UK. Some have still to be approved, then you have ongoing manufacture, distribution and then put in people's arms. (Here's the guestimate: Probably coming to a health centre or stadium near you later in 2021)

You can't give any end dates for anything at the moment, I would have thought this would be obvious to most people.

How can they give an end date ? They have already said expect things to be slowly lifted iN spring if all goes well
The vaccine won't magically make it disappear and they have no way if knowing if any issues come up , supply with vaccine, another new strain etc , they are giving target dates and more regular updates again , but it is impossible to say of this date all will be back to normal , as it won't even go back all at once it will be bit by bit

I’m working to the May bank holiday - I think that’s from what Chris Whitty said about reducing measures slowly, over the weekend?

It feels far away but it’s a date. You’ve just got to be careful not to expect everything to lift then; and to know that it may only be for a few months again.

But it really depends how your head works. Some people will do much better going week to week then they will having a date that far away.

[quote KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain]@Imaginetoday - forgive me for questioning you but what is the difference between this vaccine - with no data to support impact on transmission or data to support length of effectivity (on severity of illness) and other vaccines - say measles?

Do other vaccines mean that you still be infected and infectious but less likely to suffer severe illness? I thought vaccines meant you didn't become infected. Data exists with older vaccines - even if we are ignorant of it - but not so much with novel vaccines.

Is there even RCT that show that people who have been immunised with novel vaccines have less severe illness, shorter hospital stays, lower mortality compared to those who have not been immunised?

Is a theoretical reduction of transmission based solely on less severe illness so less viral load?

Why aren't other prophylactic treatments used where evidence exists?

Are people with greater transmission risks (working outside the home, younger, public facing etc) not being vaccinated because impact on transition is unknown?

I can understand frustration and confusion and the desire for absolutes. Trying to deal with scientific uncertainties and match this to political optimistic truths is a hard place to be. [/quote]
Hey, great questions but out of my realms of knowledge. We need a virologist to answer! My experience was in production.
My guess answer based on my limited knowledge of how vaccines work and different types that there are lots of different vaccine mechanisms. So vaccines are packets of DNA. They need a host cell to infect to replicate. Vs bacteria that can divide and replicate themselves.
Different vaccines are made with live virus , or deactivated virus, and some are made by fragmenting the virus. What scientists are looking for is the parts of the virus that trigger the immune response. So even with covid all the vaccines are taking different approaches to produce that immune response including some very novel approaches relating to replication of DNA.
So, my assumption has always been that different vaccines, depending on what and how they trigger the immune, will have better effectivity in preventing symptoms and different efficacy in preventing transmission.
The more novel the approach the less data we have at long term data such as transmission and how long immunity last for.

Any virologist out there care to correct me or explain more?

I saw March 8th mentioned but that was just for lifting restrictions slightly and back to tiers not an end date, we won't get an end date yet

[quote KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain]@Imaginetoday - forgive me for questioning you but what is the difference between this vaccine - with no data to support impact on transmission or data to support length of effectivity (on severity of illness) and other vaccines - say measles?

Do other vaccines mean that you still be infected and infectious but less likely to suffer severe illness? I thought vaccines meant you didn't become infected. Data exists with older vaccines - even if we are ignorant of it - but not so much with novel vaccines.

Is there even RCT that show that people who have been immunised with novel vaccines have less severe illness, shorter hospital stays, lower mortality compared to those who have not been immunised?

Is a theoretical reduction of transmission based solely on less severe illness so less viral load?

Why aren't other prophylactic treatments used where evidence exists?

Are people with greater transmission risks (working outside the home, younger, public facing etc) not being vaccinated because impact on transition is unknown?

I can understand frustration and confusion and the desire for absolutes. Trying to deal with scientific uncertainties and match this to political optimistic truths is a hard place to be. [/quote]
Re the question on data to support novel vaccines and length of stay, severity, lower mortality etc. Yes.
This is all part of the clinical trials. Typically this data is collected on large scale in stage 3 trials which include placebo group double blind studies (even those dosing patients won’t know who has placebo vs real vaccine). The stage3 trials for covid have been massive- many uk people volunteered and becuase of the level of disease in population they have been able to gather massive data in short time.
The regulatory submission and approval requires all that information. The data has to show significant efficacy and any claims about transmission reduction, reduction in mortality rates etc.

I’d be amazed if anything was lifted in March when hospital consultants are now forecasting that the peak won’t be reached until February.