The elephant in the room which is why these measures won’t work.....

[TransplantedScouser]

It’s not shops spreading covid or garden centres or people going on walks........

It’s also largely not down to offices or workplaces or even pubs and restaurants.

Two things :

Schools because children are known infection vectors

And people visiting friends and family

If the government said we’ll keep open the economy but you can’t see your friends and family in private settings then it would probably have a bigger effect

Sadly the latter is impossible to police and you get people saying “why can I go to the pub but not see my mother in her house”

And it’s because friends and family do not socially distance when there is not someone making them. At least in public there are monitors to come extent in the form of external people and staff.

It’s people like my 76 year old mum giving her friend a lift to the supermarket once a week so they are in the same car for over half an hour

Or having my aunt and uncle over to visit - well we sit on separate chairs - yes, in a small living room with the windows closed because you are old and feel cold

Or my friends kids running up to give us a hug when we pass them on the street.

Closing the economy down is a smoke screen because what actually needs to be done is impossible to police

I'm pretty sure I know why the virus rate was / is / going to continue rising in my area - it's parents (and yes, there are some on MN!) insisting that it's absolutely fine that their kids that go and meet their friends at the park at the weekend / in the evenings / in the school holidays / when the flippin' schools are shut to try and stop the spread. Because: It's in the open air so it's safe (no it isn't, it's better than inside as the virus can disperse quicker, but it doesn't make the virus go away), they stay 2 metres apart (no they really, really don't), they need it for their mental health (I agree, but they can chat face-to-face online the rest of the time and don't have a problem doing that, and I know it's not the same and I know it's miserable, but these are unusual times!).

In the park near me, there are regularly groups of 50 or so teenagers in a fairly small area, some are sharing swings, some are sat huddled up, 6 on a bench made for maybe 3, there are 2 together on a skateboard (no idea how they actually manage that, but they do!) and others are walking around with their arms around each other.... Until the parent stop allowing this and saying it's okay we aren't doing our utmost to try and stop the spread.

How does tens of thousands of teenagers dis-engaging from their education because they now have the very clear message that their education doesn't matter much help the economy?

In what way has there been a “very clear message that their education doesn’t matter much”? What’s clear is that the government had to be dragged kicking and screaming to where we are, and amongst the public there’s a great deal of anguish on whether schools should be closed or not.

A mate’s sil died of Covid right before Christmas. She’d just come out of hospital for chemo.

A member of my DH’s team was in hospital over Christmas (bless, I nearly cried for her, sitting alone on Christmas Day in pain!) and has now got covid. No idea if she contracted it there.

Expecting a significant percentage of the population to follow the current Covid prevention regulations is like expecting them to pay tax rather than work cash in hand or to be honest with the authorities about their financial situation. Or to send their children to school regularly under normal circumstances. They're not awake at night worrying about jobs/education/national debt as they have no stake in society as a whole. They're ignoring the rules on a daily basis. I see it all the time as part of my job.

"My point is we would all be in a better positions if we kept the economy open as much possible but shut down schools and stopped people seeing friends and family in private houses."

It does seem counter-intuitive if you say that someone is more likely to catch Covid by having two people visit them than by going to a pub with tens of people in it.

@HalfPastThree

Surely the elephant in the room is that nearly everyone's been following the restrictions for months. And they haven't worked. And they never could work.

Any functioning society needs a minimum number of physical interactions between people. I can't understand why this isn't obvious.

But the first lockdown DID work - infection and death numbers were pushed right down.

And then we got 'eat out to help out' and schools & universities going back...

Why do people keep saying lockdowns didn't work. Do they not realise how low numbers got in the summer? Of all the things that make me rage, number one might just be how we almost did it and then just happily fucked it up again with holidays, universities, schools and bloody Eat Out to Help Out.

It can't all be so black and white. Family situations aren't all simple. I have an elderly mother and severely disabled sibling who live with a private carer coming in every day. When this carer needs to have a day off, which is perfectly acceptable as they aren't a slave, I take over and do the 'calls'. When my daughter needs to go to hospital for her appointments, she leaves her children with me as I am the only person who can safely look after them. So that's me breaking the rules?..

Do they not realise how low numbers got in the summer?

If you look at Sweden’s data, their cases dropped significantly in the summer also, with no lockdown.

Seasonality is a key factor in this virus.

It's because there are so many fucking morons who think they are invincible and/or the rules don't apply to them. A pity in many ways that we have gone so far towards individual freedom that there is little collective responsibility anymore. I find myself looking somewhat enviously at those countries where the citizens are (almost) all law-abiding and playing by the rules. It's no doubt disparaged by some but when it comes to a situation such as this, it is absolutely what is needed.

the first lockdown DID work - infection and death numbers were pushed right down

Not so much down as forwards, because as anyone could have told us, the instant it ended the infections picked up again

And unless the vaccines work this will probably be the case for years - unless people delude themselves that lockdowns can go on indefinitely?

I agree, OP.

Schools because children are known infection vectors

they've closed schools then reopened to half the world who seem to be key workers, so everyone bears the pain for continued transmission. I badly want schools to reopen for my dcs though.

Closing the economy down is a smoke screen because what actually needs to be done is impossible to police

agree it's a smoke screen, but with a little will it is possible for a governement to organise an NZ/Asian style total lockdown for 3 weeks. Will never happen in this country. The libertarians rejoice, the pragmatists despair.

Because we have so few cases, the evening news in Australia states how every new case that day caught their infection. Ignoring those travellers in hotel quarantine who have tested positive after arrival, I would say at least half the cases of community transmission seem to be from restaurants/cafes/shops etc.

How do they know though - do they do a genomic analysis to confirm it's the same virus as the person they think was the source (iyswim)?
It would be useful to know in which conditions it transits most - and whether it is more to do with an individual's propensity to transmit - superspreaders who infect a lot of people and others who don't.

As a pp has said, I feel that there is still more to find out about this virus - and, of course, any new strains of it. I thought there were some stats showing that supermarket workers are not more likely to be infected than others - maybe other shops where you spend a while standing in one place near to the worker are more risky?

So how do people think that France managed to get through their recent outbreak? They peaked at over 80 000 cases in early November, but by early December were getting around 10-15 000 most days.

I assume partly because the new strain in UK is more contagious, but do people have any suggestions for other contributing factors? Genuine question, not being goady.

Because we have so few cases, the evening news in Australia states how every new case that day caught their infection. Ignoring those travellers in hotel quarantine who have tested positive after arrival, I would say at least half the cases of community transmission seem to be from restaurants/cafes/shops etc.

How do they know though - do they do a genomic analysis to confirm it's the same virus as the person they think was the source (iyswim)?
It would be useful to know in which conditions it transits most - and whether it is more to do with an individual's propensity to transmit - superspreaders who infect a lot of people and others who don't.

As a pp has said, I feel that there is still more to find out about this virus - and, of course, any new strains of it. I thought there were some stats showing that supermarket workers are not more likely to be infected than others - maybe other shops where you spend a while standing in one place near to the worker are more risky?

Yes - they know by genomic sequencing. It has been very interesting 'watching' how the virus spreads. The track and trace system here is very good, but much easier to do due to low caseload. Is the UK even bothering with track and trace any more?

I don't understand the OP at all. How can meeting your mum at the shops or in a cafe be safer than meeting her at home? I'm not saying private socialising is OK - far from it - but clearly they're all equally problematic if a lockdown is to be effective. I get the concern about the economy but the only way to protect that is to make the lockdown all-encompassing so as to reduce the time taken to control the spread of infection. That means no socialising, no school, no shopping, no hospitality, no garden centres, but also no travel in and out of areas let alone across national borders, and no fucking exceptions. The virus was quite well under control until the government (a) encouraged everyone to go on holiday (b) did the stupid eat out to help out thing and (c) refused to countenance funding any modifications to the delivery of education. Yes, the virus is trashing the economy, but constantly excluding this and that from the restrictions because of concern for the economy is likewise trashing any effort to combat the virus. Non-compliance is a massive and increasing problem, but the main culprit here is the UK's foolish Covid policy. We're an island ffs. We could be in the same position as NZ or Australia now if we had an intelligent and decisive government. That is the elephant in the room.

@TransplantedScouser

What I think should happen and wha tI would like to happen is open the economy as much as possible, accept it can't be open completely due to WFH parents whilst schools are shut and people just stop getting close to friends and family in private.

Okay... but you've already said yourself that this is not realistic thing to actually implement. So sorry, but... you're talking marshmallow floof :)

Oh yeah, and don't even start me on the misappropriation of all the money that could have funded a proper track and trace system instead of lining Serco's incompetent pockets.

I don't understand the OP at all. How can meeting your mum at the shops or in a cafe be safer than meeting her at home?

Fairly obvious: in shops or a café, you're required to keep a 2 metre distance & wear a mask. And actually (before today) unless you & your mother were in a household or a support bubble (but not a childcare bubble because they are NOT for socialising) you shouldn't be in a café together.

Generally shops & cafés have better ventilation than private homes. Also, in private, there's generally little attention given to social distancing.

Yes, but the OP is suggesting that you should be allowed to meet your mum in a cafe.

And how you think people drink coffee through a mask is anyone's guess.

Schools because children are known infection vectors

And people visiting friends and family

Nonsense.. Over 40% of all covid cases in Scotland have been in care homes so that puts paid to your theory right there. Also not sure if those who are sat at home on a laptop are aware but there are millions of people working outside the home alongside many others in non covid secure environments, factories, warehouses etc, workmen sharing vans, close contact jobs. Am not sure why people are so narrow minded they fail to see beyond their own circumstances but I can assure you it's busy out there in the world of work and everyone I know who has had covid were likely infected at work, including most of my colleagues.

Oh shut up! So sick of reading people blaming people for spreading a microscopic virus. Aim
your anger at the government for failing to adequately prepare the health service for what was inevitably going to be a brutal winter respiratory season.

And in the meantime, perhaps think about this; an elderly relative who has been hiding away indoors for months and hasn’t seen any of her children or grandchildren since before March last year is now desperately sad and worried about her only surviving sibling. He is over 300 miles away and rapidly deteriorating after slowly losing his mobility due to lockdown and then having a fall. Of course nobody has been in to see him in an effort to protect him and others like him but it is how highly likely that he will die alone, having not seen any of his family for the last year or so of his life. What kind of inhumane setup is this endless rotation of lockdowns? And is it really protecting the people we are all living this half life to protect? They may not die of covid but there are still plenty dying alone and in pain and perhaps not always at their natural time.
I have several other stories of elderly people being left alone to die, again not of covid, but of other ailments which put them in hospital and then denied them any visitors.

@ConquestEmpireHungerPlague

Yes, but the OP is suggesting that you should be allowed to meet your mum in a cafe.

And how you think people drink coffee through a mask is anyone's guess.

Yes, it makes no sense to argue for cafes to be open, but not to be able to meet anyone in them. And people take their masks off when sitting down for a drink in a cafe, similar to how they do at home.

But can't some of the in home transmission just be from your own family one gets it at work and then brings it home and spreads
Just because work places say covid safe , they may be less risk but not no risk
Where have you seen figures for people getting it at home from others visiting , not family who live there