The elephant in the room which is why these measures won’t work.....

[TransplantedScouser]

It’s not shops spreading covid or garden centres or people going on walks........

It’s also largely not down to offices or workplaces or even pubs and restaurants.

Two things :

Schools because children are known infection vectors

And people visiting friends and family

If the government said we’ll keep open the economy but you can’t see your friends and family in private settings then it would probably have a bigger effect

Sadly the latter is impossible to police and you get people saying “why can I go to the pub but not see my mother in her house”

And it’s because friends and family do not socially distance when there is not someone making them. At least in public there are monitors to come extent in the form of external people and staff.

It’s people like my 76 year old mum giving her friend a lift to the supermarket once a week so they are in the same car for over half an hour

Or having my aunt and uncle over to visit - well we sit on separate chairs - yes, in a small living room with the windows closed because you are old and feel cold

Or my friends kids running up to give us a hug when we pass them on the street.

Closing the economy down is a smoke screen because what actually needs to be done is impossible to police

I guess he's hardly likely to say "The Unions and the scientists in combination were too strong for us to argue with and Boris finally had to give in" is he.

It’s the truth though isn’t it?! We all know it too. ‘New information’ My arse.

@Goodbye2020Hello2021

Rishi Sunak said earlier today that Boris Johnson responded decisively to new information

New information? They think we’re idiots.

They would like it if we were idiots and they hope that if they continue to treat us as idiots we will eventually self-identify as such 🙄

Schools because children are known infection vectors

But... most children and staff are now not in school, though? My (secondary) school has a bit under 1000 pupils normally and we had about 30 in today.

Everyone I know who has had it got it from work. Then some gave it to the people they live with. I don’t actually know anyone who has caught it from visiting a friend or relative but maybe people I know aren’t doing that much.
Most people I know caught it either working for the nhs or in schools. Several in an office during an outbreak there.

Mess
Your bubble picture did post!
Sums it up perfectly!

@LivinLaVidaLoki

Can I add hospitals? It is currently estimated that up to a third (up from 25%) of people in hospital with covid, caught it in hospital.

Also two of the three people that I know that have died of covid caught it in hospital. I strongly believe nosocimial infection is the elephant in the room.

agree hospitals

@Fairystory

Why are garden centres open? They really are not essential and even in normal times most people do little gardening in the winter.

Dont be silly, if the garden centres werent open where would people meet up?

I think it's a whole combination of things. They said during first lockdown it's a balancing act as each different things have different effect on R.

But right now I see the take always. Queue of people all sharing an inside space whilst waiting for their food.

Just wait outside!

Delivery drivers all waiting indoors for their food to deliver. Many nit social distancing as people seem to call anything static that happens daily "their bubble"

I've lost count of how many times I've heard "well we work together so we're a bubble" as an excuse to have close contact with them everywhere they choose.

Whoever upthread said it's the people refusing to take distancing seriously or comply at all times we have to also close the other things that have a lower effect on R rate.

I think the whole "covid-secure" environment/risk assessments thing has been a farce and gave people a false sense of security
.
A friend of mine went to a "covid secure" venue for a socially distanced choir event (with masks). Over half of those attending now have covid - and two very seriously.

Sorry OP I'm very tired so might be being thick/missing your point, but I don't understand why you're saying the measures won't work because of transmission in schools when most schools are effectively shut except to a few pupils.

Seriously though, they could always meet in Church. In my local church 2 people came to an actual service at the weekend and shook hands with the vicar telling him how ill they felt. He heard a few days later they'd both tested positive and were very unwell. Still, keeps them out of the garden centres I suppose.

if we kept the economy open as much possible but shut down schools

How does me quitting job because WFH is now so challenging, when dealing with kids forced to stay home = "keep the economy open" ?

How does tens of thousands of teenagers dis-engaging from their education because they now have the very clear message that their education doesn't matter much help the economy?

Most indoors visits between family/friends now have to do with supporting vulnerable people & providing care. My disabled neighbour gets a weekly visit from his daughter to clean house. She also gives him lifts when he goes to doctor, and sorts out DIY or garden issues for him. I feel sick at people who want to condemn that kind of support.

You can police people going into others' houses fairly easily, but it's a step into people's privacy that the government feels is unacceptable. The technology is available. That's why people saying 'freedom over death' is so annoying, the UK government have already drawn a red line that protects people's privacy and are clearly unwilling to step over it regardless of who dies as a result. I can understand the position, even if its not my preference.

There is something admirable about it, in a way, but personally I like the near-zero crime rates of states who employ maximum surveillance

Exceptionalism
**
This.

The case someone described above in Aldi with 2 adults and 3 grown up children with a trolley.

Even on Mn you'll 50 thousand people saying MOYB, what about the children, what about disability, what about MH blah blah blah.

There will be a very few exceptional cases. A few. But most people really are just entitled gits! They really do find every reason. I've even heard that it's because the child likes to choose own food. That's not exceptional it's human.

When you go into a shop and 50% of people have no masks.

No way do 50% of population have an exemption.

And I've been there. Lockdown 1 my ds then 15 came to supermarket with me. He's autistic and suffered anxiety and couldn't be left alone. Shopping for me and my shielded parents I had no choice to take him as food is a necessity.

I didn't care when Sainsbury's challenged me - I explained.

And I was polite when after explaining he still said "well if you could find a way to come alone next time...."

Funnily enough when I asked if he had any suggestions or solutions he didn't.

But..... we worked on this over the lockdown and months and ds can now manage to stay home. It's the static position of people's minds sometimes that also causes unecessary problems.

I agree OP about the main sources of spreading Covid and that the second reason is impossible to police.

Also things are different this time. People are much more tired, with less resilience than March. Maybe it is just me but I expected to come back refreshed after Christmas but, having had to spend it on my own and not go anywhere but Tesco's, I've not really been able to ‘recharge my batteries’ as a break normally would have done.

When you go into a shop and 50% of people have no masks.

I think it's hilarious (well it would be if it weren't so serious) that it's the builders, labourers, scaffolders, roofers, who march into shops etc in groups, without masks, etc. I'd be VERY surprised if every bloke on a construction wagon was genuinely exempt from wearing masks due to health reasons! It's people like that who need to be challenged.

@Despairandchocolatecake

Everyone I know who has had it got it from work. Then some gave it to the people they live with. I don’t actually know anyone who has caught it from visiting a friend or relative but maybe people I know aren’t doing that much. Most people I know caught it either working for the nhs or in schools. Several in an office during an outbreak there.

That's way individual experience doesn't tell us anything, everyone I know who can be pretty sure where they got it has caught it from a family member in their own home and on the whole the family members were teens/young people who carried on as normal.

The lack of easily publically available statistics on who is getting infected does make me suspicious that the whole country is being made to suffer for the majority of transmission being in hospitals and care homes

we worked on this over the lockdown and months and ds can now manage to stay home

Wow! congratulations to you and your DS @itsgettingweird
that sounds like quite an achievement, coming out of very difficult circumstances. Silver linings perhaps? (got to make hte best of a shit situation atm)

Also things are different this time. People are much more tired, with less resilience than March. Maybe it is just me but I expected to come back refreshed after Christmas but, having had to spend it on my own and not go anywhere but Tesco's, I've not really been able to ‘recharge my batteries’ as a break normally would have done.

Hard agree. I was off for a week - longest amount of time I’ve had since August - and I feel exactly as tired, sad and stressed as I did on Xmas Eve.

All these people coming on here saying 'my mum/brother/friend' got it from X - you don't know that. Unless that was literally the only place they've been, all you know is that contract tracing has linked them and other Coronavirus cases to a location. They might well have been the ones who picked it up elsewhere and took it to the pub or wherever.

Your whole assertion is based largely on hunch and gut instinct OP. This is science ....where are your hard facts and data?

@TransplantedScouser

My point is we would all be in a better positions if we kept the economy open as much possible but shut down schools and stopped people seeing friends and family in private houses.

But if they did that, people would be screaming why should jo blogs be able to go get a pint when their kid can't go to school and they can't hug their mother.

Okay.... so what would you suggest should be done? Are you saying this is what should happen, or not? You're not being very clear in what you actually want.

Buntystwinkle. I followed them too. The outrage at them receiving gifts at their front door was on another level. From what they said in their apology they didn’t ask the visitors inside either. There is such a sense of everyone doing the right thing. No tutting or eye rolling there. It’s prosecution. Their apologies were not accepted. It’s no wonder with such am of working for the common good they have covid controlled.

What I think should happen and wha tI would like to happen is open the economy as much as possible, accept it can't be open completely due to WFH parents whilst schools are shut and people just stop getting close to friends and family in private.