Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

That could be part of it yes as they don't have many children registered.

Don't know what happened to their project to get whole schools to sign up and receive specific data in return? Tricky to get agreement from a large enough proportion of parents maybe.

The new variant (English variant, b117 or whatever it is).
It's vastly more transmissible - but how, and are we going to change anything because of it? What in real terms does it mean that it's more transmissible - someone needs fewer particles to become infected? Do they somehow travel further or stay 'alive' or intact longer in the air?

Should we be updating the guidance from 2m to 3m, for example? Should the track and trace app change their algorithm from '15 mins within 2m' of a positive case to a briefer encounter?
To me it seems a bit vague that we know it's somehow more infectious but not having any practical suggestions to even try and counter it...? We might be in lockdown but there are still large numbers of people having to interact that are trying to do so on the 'old' guidance based on the 'old' strain.

Obviously I don't have any answers but wondered what others thought...

My understanding is that because of the higher viral loads that seem common with the new variant, someone is more likely to be shedding enough virus to infect you by whatever route. From what I am absorbing on Twitter, I see increasing concern about what this means for airborne transmission in particular, and I see some are advocating better masks as a response and more attention to indoor ventilation.

I think that is a great point about the track and trace app. I don’t know how it is designed but it would have been great if the algorithm had some machine learning element to enable it to figure these things out for itself and modify accordingly.

@JanuaryChill

That could be part of it yes as they don't have many children registered.

Don't know what happened to their project to get whole schools to sign up and receive specific data in return? Tricky to get agreement from a large enough proportion of parents maybe.

Our school was asked to sign up. There are 75 children being reported for according to the app, out of 630 - not sure whether that’s classed as good take up or not?

The only stat I bring today is 100% of staff in, around 85% pupils in and daily life as usual here, plus how we accommodate those choosing to stay at home. (Sen school.)

We have actually been allowed to wear masks when not teaching now. Zero social distancing. We are a perfect research study.

Oh and I've been told Sunderland hospitals are almost at March levels. Looking at rising case rates it's going to get a lot worse. But when people are in they're really sick. Which doesn't fill me with confidence actually.

Thanks for the answers to my mutation question upthread @everythingthelighttouches and @stayandsea. Think I get it now. Sorry for late acknowledgment dd and I binged on Staged yesterday evening (highly recommended particularly for this week!)

@tootyfruitypickle - the Oxford vaccine could be adjusted like flu jabs to inside multiple strains of just re most predominant. Also, as I understand it (very limited!)there is a theory that use of multiple vaccines would help in the event of mutations, in particular if they target different things. Oxford and Pfizer both target the spike, so you might want one that targets the nucleus as a later booster for example.

Sorry, illegible auto-incorrect. I'll try that first sentence again:
the Oxford vaccine could be adjusted like flu jabs to include multiple strains or just the most predominant.

Any thoughts on this virology:

www.virology.ws/

Is he maybe exaggerating some true points? I hadn't heard before that the plasma trials could cause their own problems.

And what about the idea that schools were "breeding grounds"?

Thanks

@JanuaryChill - he's not a virologist.
Ask yourself - why would a genuine US professor use a Western Samoa internet address and have it registered to an internet cafe in Apia, Samoa?

I can't be bothered to go through disputing each of his points unless you have specific questions. A few quick thoughts:

1. USA and UK are not the only countries in the world, the whole world, has not been and cannot be in constant lockdown. Blaming schools for mutations that can happen anywhere is daft, the variant strain affecting the spike has happened in many countries so looks inevitable as long as there are cases.
2. Nobody sat on a working vaccine for months deliberately not vaccinating the whole world. Ludicrous conspiracy theory.
3. Plasma can make someone live longer who's weak, so theoretically could lead to mutations; this is not Metcalf different than anyone else being weak and fighting off the virus over a long period of time though.
4. etc etc etc

*medically, not Metcalf (whoever that is)

he's not a virologist

Really? I don’t know about the Samoan Internet address but Paul Bieniasz appears to be a legitimate virologist at a legitimate institution (the Rockefeller University). Unless the blog is a fraudulent account.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/22/uk-government-blamed-covid-19-mutation-occur

"What’s certain is that the greater the number of people who are infected, the more chance a virus has to evolve."

"The recent surge cannot be blamed on a mutant virus alone; in fact, government mismanagement of the pandemic meant that many more people became infected, creating the conditions for mutations to occur."

Anthony Costello is professor of global health and sustainable development at University College London and a former director of maternal and child health at the WHO

So question i do have then regarding the mutation.

It was 1st identified in September?

When the return of schools (seemingly the only place people can be infected, sorry I jest) had only just happened.

1st noticed in Kent where numbers were low i believe.

And in the UK as a whole numbers were low over the summer period.

So how is that the fault of the government? We can blame them for loads, but I am not convinced we can land that on them too.

Well maybe we can as they never closed borders and we have a lot of virus imported from Spain!

I'm not an expert so I don't know, but i just don't see how dates tie in with a mutation due to high levels in the community.

It has also been suggested by experts in US that mutation may have occurred there and been imported to UK!

I'm also a bit bemused by 'fault of the government' line.
if that were true then the numbers in some countries would be a lot lower than in others.
at least in europe and america that's not the case.

@borntobequiet - perhaps I'm too skeptical of unassociated accounts, and of people with a post describing itself as "anonymous" but with a name attached (!?!). What's quite certain is that the conspiracy theory is rubbish.

There is a rush to blame governments when in fact they deserve some credit at times - BBC and other news outlets have been lauding the Israeli vaccinations as the standard as they have vaccinated 25% of their population already - but when you look at the numbers vaccinated it’s a similar number of people as the U.K. and US, they are benefitting from a small population enabling much more impressive percentage vaccinations. When in fact I think getting similar figures rolled out over larger geographical areas is more laudable given most of it has been the more difficult to transport/distribute Pfizer jab

The ease with which people can assume someone else’s identity online is also worth keeping in mind when assessing experts’ opinions. I haven’t opened the previous link, but this popped into my head - no reason why someone with a vested interest couldn’t be doing similar with covid information....

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-india-55232432

[quote MRex]@borntobequiet - perhaps I'm too skeptical of unassociated accounts, and of people with a post describing itself as "anonymous" but with a name attached (!?!). What's quite certain is that the conspiracy theory is rubbish.[/quote]
It was originally posted elsewhere by him anonymously and when it gained some traction he outed himself - it's on the virology.ws blog as a repost. As a trained virologist, I find the virology.ws blog excellent.
He wasn't posting it as a conspiracy theory - he was merely pointing out that the UK government has been (presumably unintentionally) doing exactly what he would do in the lab if he was trying to generate an immune escape mutant. He wrote it in a somewhat sarcastic manner because he's exasperated with the handling of the pandemic. Whitty himself admitted yesterday that there is a chance that the extended schedule could generate vaccine escape mutants but that JCVI felt it was a low risk.
Maybe you would get on better with a less emotional summary of the problem.
www.statnews.com/2021/01/04/britain-takes-a-gamble-with-covid-19-vaccines-upping-the-stakes-for-the-rest-of-us/

Anyone questioning why it's the fault of the gov, a few examples

1. Borders not closed. Ever.
2. no meaningful quarantine on entry.
3. throwing money at cronies
4. no TTR
5. schools opened without any mitigation measures
6. ppl actively encouraged to engage n behaviour that was known to spread the virus (eoho)
7. no proper financial support to isolate
8. no proper financial support

8/A only to a smaller group who. My hunch is that the 10m on furlough will be massively from large corps. Implying that it's mostly for their buddies not with the actual ppl in mind

1. keeping ey open as they are, because of economy, not because it's safe

10. fuck up in exams. Pls. don't tell me that it couldn't have been foreseen for this year.... 11. useless, contradicting and waffley messaging all along the 11 months.

Do you want me to go on?

[quote lurker101]The ease with which people can assume someone else’s identity online is also worth keeping in mind when assessing experts’ opinions. I haven’t opened the previous link, but this popped into my head - no reason why someone with a vested interest couldn’t be doing similar with covid information....

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-india-55232432[/quote]
Paul Bieniasz is on twitter. He doesn't have a tick mark but it looks legitimate.
mobile.twitter.com/PaulBieniasz?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Vincent Racaniello is the owner of the virology.ws blog - he does have a tick. If you scroll through his feed you'll see posts from the blog and interactions with academic institutions. That blog is 100% legit.
mobile.twitter.com/profvrr?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

@TheSunIsStillShining

Anyone questioning why it's the fault of the gov, a few examples

1. Borders not closed. Ever.
2. no meaningful quarantine on entry.
3. throwing money at cronies
4. no TTR
5. schools opened without any mitigation measures
6. ppl actively encouraged to engage n behaviour that was known to spread the virus (eoho)
7. no proper financial support to isolate
8. no proper financial support

8/A only to a smaller group who. My hunch is that the 10m on furlough will be massively from large corps. Implying that it's mostly for their buddies not with the actual ppl in mind

1. keeping ey open as they are, because of economy, not because it's safe

10. fuck up in exams. Pls. don't tell me that it couldn't have been foreseen for this year.... 11. useless, contradicting and waffley messaging all along the 11 months.

Do you want me to go on?

But is that what has caused the mutation?