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Daily stats, numbers, data thread 02 Jan

999 replies

PatriciaHolm · 02/01/2021 16:44

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots [[imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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66
time4anothername · 05/01/2021 21:25

@InMySpareTime

That's assuming nobody caught it twice. We can never know how many of the untested "probably Covid" cases have lost their initial immunity over the months, but there will be a proportion of early cases that are becoming susceptible to the new variant due to waning immunity so the maths is not as simple as it looks at first sight.
this paper not yet reviewed, based on an English healthcare cohort concluded "We observed no symptomatic reinfections in a cohort of healthcare workers"

www.journalofinfection.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0163-4453%2820%2930781-7

wintertravel1980 · 05/01/2021 21:40

Thanks for the link to the ONS data, Quarantino.

The data in Tab 3 seems to indeed suggest that London reached the peak of infections on Dec 28 while South East peaked on Dec 30.

ONS is meant to reflect levels of community infections so its trajectory is supposed to front run the trend of daily cases (which include transmissions in care homes, hospitals, prisons, etc that lag the community trend).

Of course, the numbers are modelled estimates so it will be useful to see the longer term view. However if London is indeed on the downward trajectory, it proves the virus dynamic is only partially driven by external restrictions.

Em777 · 05/01/2021 21:42

@MarshaBradyo

If the death rate is 0.5% then over 50% of my town in Kent have already had it. Which is rather mind boggling.

It is you might see reduction based on that alone

I fear not if one believe’s the info coming out of Manaus in Brazil. 66% of the population were infected up til June but it’s taken off again and is still spreading easily.

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/07/science.abe9728

So much for herd immunity.

TheDinosaurTrain · 05/01/2021 21:50

From Liverpool’s daily covid report:

“ Data extracted covering testing up to 2nd January 2021 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 3027, an increase of 1992 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 607.8 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 16%.”

Tier 2 was a really bad call for LCR Sad

FeelingBIue · 05/01/2021 21:53

I'm not convinced London has peaked. LittleOwl's Covid Messenger App shows only 3 London Boroughs with falling rates as at 30 December - Havering, Wandsworth and Westminster.

wintertravel1980 · 05/01/2021 21:59

Covid Messenger App shows only 3 London Boroughs with falling rates as at 30 December - Havering, Wandsworth and Westminster.

Covid Messenger gives actual positive cases by date of specimen (from the government dashboard) and it will include positives in hospitals, care homes, prisons and other "non-community" settings.

ONS (and to some extent Zoe) is supposed to give the view of community transmission that normally front runs the PHE data.

Back in April-May community transmission fell drastically during the first 3 weeks of the lockdown but cases remained high for much longer because of care home outbreaks.

I agree it is too early to conclude that London has peaked but ONS/Zoe should in theory give us an earlier indication that the PHE numbers.

peridito · 05/01/2021 22:00

Looking at Little Owls figures for some London boroughs and although numbers are still increasing ,the increase doesn't look as great as it was .

So maybe slowing down ??

I could be wrong of course .

MRex · 05/01/2021 22:10

@wintertravel1980 - London was in Tier 4 from midnight 18th-19th, that's 10 days before the drop so would be linked to restrictions.

ceeveebee · 05/01/2021 22:10

@TheDinosaurTrain

From Liverpool’s daily covid report:

“ Data extracted covering testing up to 2nd January 2021 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 3027, an increase of 1992 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 607.8 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 16%.”

Tier 2 was a really bad call for LCR Sad

Agree. I posted on 23 December that I was surprised it wasn’t moved to tier 3, as had seen that cases were riding rapidly (had doubled in the week leading up to tier review) And Cumbria too which was also in tier 2 despite tripling in the course of the two weeks before tier review.

Following the science...by at least a few weeks

TheDinosaurTrain · 05/01/2021 22:12

Ceeveebee, so frustrating, like watching a slow motion car crash

InterfectoremVulpes · 05/01/2021 22:19

@CommanderBurnham

Be just been looking at the summary data and if the average time between diagnosis and death is 3 weeks then today's death figures arise from a case rate of approx 35k. Today's is 60k plus.
Todays death figures are for deaths going back to the start of December.
lurker101 · 05/01/2021 22:20

@mrex and @wintertravel1980 a lot of people I know in London had also dramatically reduced contacts where possible pre-Tier 4 in the hope of reducing exposure pre-Christmas. We stopped going to the gym, shopping centres etc. which were all “allowed” in tier 3. Alas Tier 4 came in and we had Christmas ourselves, but a lot of people I know (that could) had cut their contacts in anticipation, so that is hopefully feeding into numbers stabilising or (fingers crossed) going down

TheSunIsStillShining · 05/01/2021 22:22

I have a q. which I am sure we talked about at one point, but I can't recall the details.
I was wondering why do people think zoe app data so valuable in prediction? It is based on random ppl participating in a research basically. There is no incentive, no follow up, no real framework. It's just an app collecting data. Yes, loads use it, but still.

Did anyone take the time to look back to multiple points and compare historic data from dashboard/hospital figures w/zoe app data?
I'm hoping that because King's is partially behind it they might have?

Firefliess · 05/01/2021 22:25

That's an interesting article @Em77. Thanks. But where did you get the data from that that area's currently seeking a second wave? The area with the high antibody rates is only a small part of Brazil, so data from Brazil as a whole (a huge county) isn't really relevant.

sirfredfredgeorge · 05/01/2021 22:28

@Firefliess
www.translatetheweb.com/?ref=TVert&from=&to=en&a=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.opovo.com.br%2Fcoronavirus%2F2021%2F01%2F01%2Fmanaus-registra-recorde-de-internacoes-por-covid-e-abertura-de-covas-na-vespera-de-reveillon.html

however, one of the things on the Manaus data was how stratified it was in the first wave, very high seroprevalence among the poor parts of the community, very little among the wealthy, so it could really be that it is a different population now.

Firefliess · 05/01/2021 22:30

I think the value of @Zoe is very much in seeing trends before they're apparent from other sources @TheSun. The people taking part are a self-selecting group, but they're the same group every day, so it should spot trends ok. People will report symptoms before they've had a test, leaned its result, or been picked up in the ONS sample survey.

It seems to show rates still growing though currently Sad

Motorina · 05/01/2021 22:35

ZOE has historically performed well against other data sources. They discuss this on their website at covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-power-of-citizen-science

Em777 · 05/01/2021 22:38

@Firefliess

That's an interesting article *@Em77*. Thanks. But where did you get the data from that that area's currently seeking a second wave? The area with the high antibody rates is only a small part of Brazil, so data from Brazil as a whole (a huge county) isn't really relevant.
Apologies, it was this NPR article:

“In Brazil's jungle metropolis of Manaus, nurse Francinete Simões thought she had seen the last COVID-19 death at the urgent care center where she works in July. Hospitals finally had space to take critical patients again after a violent initial wave of the virus left many of the city's dead in mass graves.

But in recent weeks, Simões says, hospitals are "filling up, and I'm seeing people die again." The state government has now ordered non-essential businesses to close between December 26 and January 10 as a virus containment measure for this city of 2.2 million.”

www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/12/24/949799132/the-worst-of-covid-should-be-over-for-one-hard-hit-brazilian-city-but-its-not

The interesting point I took from the Science mag article was the conclusion about herd immunity:

In conclusion, our data show that >70% of the population has been infected in Manaus approximately seven months after the virus first arrived in the city. This is above the theoretical herd immunity threshold. However, prior infection may not confer long-lasting immunity (30, 31). Indeed, we observed rapid antibody waning in Manaus, consistent with other reports that have shown signal waning on the Abbott IgG assay (14, 32). However, other commercial assays, with different designs or targeting different antigens, have more stable signal (14), and there is evidence for a robust neutralizing antibody response several months out from infection (33). Rare reports of reinfection have been confirmed (34), but the frequency of its occurrence remains an open question (35). Manaus represents a “sentinel” population, giving us a data-based indication of what may happen if SARS-CoV-2 is allowed to spread largely unmitigated.

Firefliess · 05/01/2021 22:45

Thanks @ Em777

TheSunIsStillShining · 05/01/2021 22:51

Thanks Motorina, Firefliess

I was thinking more peer review style, not self reporting on how good we are :)
I'll keep looking.

Btw: not questioning them in general, just want to cross reference and see how accurate they have been. By now we have enough historical data to do a comparison.

Firefliess · 05/01/2021 22:55

It's easy enough to compare the trajectories of Zoe and the ONS infection survey @TheSun. In general they've been pretty close, though Zoe underestimated the scale of the rise in December if I remember rightly. (It had the trajectory right, but showed infections growing slower than they were - possibly to do with their user group I guess)

Motorina · 05/01/2021 22:58

@TheSunIsStillShining

Thanks Motorina, Firefliess

I was thinking more peer review style, not self reporting on how good we are :)
I'll keep looking.

Btw: not questioning them in general, just want to cross reference and see how accurate they have been. By now we have enough historical data to do a comparison.

That blog summarised an article in the lancet, which I confess I haven't read, which I think from the summary does just that.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30269-3/fulltext

TheSunIsStillShining · 05/01/2021 23:05

Thank you! :)

JanuaryChill · 05/01/2021 23:11

Had forgotten Zoe seemed behind the curve in December.

Could this indicate that the new strain has more asymptomatic or slightly different symptoms? Although I don't think any of the research into it thus far indicates these things.

Firefliess · 05/01/2021 23:32

I wondered that too @January. But would agree that nothing I've read indicate that the symptoms are any different with the new strain. It could be to do with the new strain being quite localised at first, and Zoe not being great at small areas (because their samples aren't big enough) Or possibly to do with more if the spread being in children during the November lockdown maybe?