Good News Thread Number 4. Because that positivity just keeps on coming!

[FuzzyPuffling]

Here it is....number four thread of science and positivity!

@tootyfruitypickle

It’s all going to be ok! Vaccines are coming , they will help reduce disease at the least and will be tweaked and improved on each time we get them , to the point that there will be so low levels of the illness some people may not even bother to go back for renewed jabs eventually.

We’ve got a shitty 2-3 months ahead but it will then be better.

Needed to hear this

I googled Washington Post second dose and got the full article. It's very good, and echoes all the points made by those supporting the delayed second dose here.

It's a rapidly changing situation, and the Americans are nothing if not practical, so I can see this happening in some states.

I can read it. I just clicked through and I could see the article.

The media like to spin scientists considering possibilities and gathering/analysing evidence as if it's already fact.

Definitely this. Scientists deal in facts, not speculation. They don't state something as fact unless they're 100% sure. If there's any uncertainty, however small, they highlight it.

Unfortunately, the media generally seems to work on the basis that unless something is confirmed as definitely true, it must mean it's totally false.

www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30781-7/fulltext#.X_JOJTXYnCs.twitter "We conclude that SARS-CoV-2 infection appears to result in protection against symptomatic infection in working age adults, at least in the short term." Just thought I'd share this!

Is the aim still to vaccinate everyone (adults) eventually?

As an aside @EngineeringFix, I'm probably being dim, but what is TWIV podcast?

Got woken up this a.m by mum who said she and my dad (84 and 85) get their jab on Saturday! My dad has had a heart attack in the autumn followed by another hospitalisation for a blood clot that in a vein near the brain so I'm especially pleased.

I saw something else about early results on a trial for a pre existing drug (an anti viral?) that were excellent for treating Covid in hospital patients but I've lost it now. Sorry, bit of a useless post!

@CornishYarg

The media like to spin scientists considering possibilities and gathering/analysing evidence as if it's already fact.

Definitely this. Scientists deal in facts, not speculation. They don't state something as fact unless they're 100% sure. If there's any uncertainty, however small, they highlight it.

Unfortunately, the media generally seems to work on the basis that unless something is confirmed as definitely true, it must mean it's totally false.

And they don't spin it so readily the other way. If a scientist says to me 'we are fairly certain x leads to y' I take that as v v likely x leads to y, and as good as we'll get without that specific piece of research being done, but yet the media will highlight that uncertainty and rile everyone up. There was a really interesting programme on radio 4 recently about communication of science to the public and the issues within that. And it really relates to this thread for me as being able to spot the good news from scientists, when it will be muted is so so helpful. (And what many are so good at on this thread)

Oh looks like it was Ivermectin which was mentioned up thread. The anti head lice drug. How weird is that? Head lice!

I knew ivermectin as a treatment for mites in chickens. It then turned up again as a magic new rosacea cure, which makes sense as rosacea is believed to be an allergic reaction to elevated numbers of demodex mites in the skin. I find it pretty surreal to think of it treating covid.

I used to work as a science communicator ( on the funding side of treatments, not vaccines) and used to describe my job as "turning science into English". Loved the job, but you sometimes had to dig very deep with the (fabulous) scientists to get to what they really meant. And yes, they definitely appear to err on the side of caution, when what they really mean is "we do not have incontrovertible evidence so we refuse to put our name to that particular thing at the moment".

@AlexandraEiffel Very true! A scientist saying they're "fairly certain" is a very, very good sign!

I work in financial services and we also err very much on the side of caution. When you deal in a world of assumptions and uncertainty, you really want to stress that there are no guarantees but it can end up being extremely cautious and caveated.

@FuzzyPuffling

I used to work as a science communicator ( on the funding side of treatments, not vaccines) and used to describe my job as "turning science into English". Loved the job, but you sometimes had to dig very deep with the (fabulous) scientists to get to what they really meant. And yes, they definitely appear to err on the side of caution, when what they really mean is "we do not have incontrovertible evidence so we refuse to put our name to that particular thing at the moment".

Makes total sense in the scientific field I assume - they largely deal with a binary ‘it is true or it is not’ kind of data?

they largely deal with a binary ‘it is true or it is not’ kind of data?

Yes, "Have I done a full peer reviewed study or not, and has it been published in "Nature"?"

@tobee

As an aside *@EngineeringFix*, I'm probably being dim, but what is TWIV podcast?

It stands for This Week in Virology. It's a podcast hosted by a virologist with a panel of doctors and scientists. I think they usually talk about other viruses but, for obvious reasons, at the moment they focus mostly on Covid.

On BBC they just said the %of over 80s with the virus has fallen and could be an early sign the vaccine is starting to take effect.

@Fleshlumpeater

On BBC they just said the %of over 80s with the virus has fallen and could be an early sign the vaccine is starting to take effect.

Great stuff if they ramp it up can you imagine the picture in a couple of months time. Seems that younger people are the biggest spreaders I wonder if there was any way they could go into the schools and just vaccinate them all! Sorry getting carried away here.

I heard ( very strongly) the bit about the over 80s falling infection rates. This sounds like good news...I hope so much it's due to the vaccine.

Whilst I'm gutted about schools, I'm choosing a positive spin on tonight's lockdown.... it's the best chance we have st giving us a really good run at getting the vaccine out at a faster rate than people are catching COVID 19.

Hate lockdown, but come on vaccine.... overtake on a bend then race ahead!

Thank you @SaskiaRembrandt

I’m gutted for those who thought they were sending kids to school tomorrow and now can’t and are having to try and make last minute arrangements.
But I’m trying to see the positive side too - it’s the best chance we have for the vaccine to start to overtake the virus. Less pressure on the NHS, hopefully will have a positive effect on vaccine roll out too!

On another note, I was very anxious as I have a three year old and WFH with a toddler is just not good. Feeling relieved he can go to nursery tomorrow as planned.

@Wherediditgo

I’m gutted for those who thought they were sending kids to school tomorrow and now can’t and are having to try and make last minute arrangements. But I’m trying to see the positive side too - it’s the best chance we have for the vaccine to start to overtake the virus. Less pressure on the NHS, hopefully will have a positive effect on vaccine roll out too!

On another note, I was very anxious as I have a three year old and WFH with a toddler is just not good. Feeling relieved he can go to nursery tomorrow as planned.

I have a reception age child and a just 1 year old. Thank fuck the baby can go to nursery! Makes things a lot easier.

Feels like a sad evening but the vaccine update was very encouraging (not that I believe a word that Boris says)

@Fleshlumpeater

On BBC they just said the %of over 80s with the virus has fallen and could be an early sign the vaccine is starting to take effect.

Should stop the death rates getting too horrendous as well.

Great news about the over 80s.
Really hope we see some effect from the vaccine this month.

Boris’ plan for top 4 groups by mid Feb- what do we think of this target? Is it what we were hoping? Better/worse?

My worry is even if all theses groups are vaccinated, the unvaccinated masses will still be terrified.
How will they convince schools to open if risk to teachers has not changed? I guess this all hangs on whether the vaccine reduces transmission or not.
Hopefully we get concrete data on this now it’s being rolled out all over.