Schools plan in January

[Ohbabybab]

amp.theguardian.com/education/2020/dec/30/return-to-english-secondary-schools-and-universities-to-be-delayed?__twitter_impression=true

From this it seems the plan is to close schools in tier 4 areas but what about pupils and staff who live in other tiers and commute in?

Hmmph Wed 30-Dec-20 17:34:42
Boris just said schools are safe, the dangers come from the mixing that happens in schools!

@Hmmph he did say that didn't he! I was open mouthed at the logic .I went to the on line text of his speech and that bit about mixing is omitted .
www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-30-december-2020

I don't know if it helps at all, but I have seen immense frustration from many as to why their council is treated differently from neighbouring boroughs/councils.

I can't profess to have all the answers but I do know that such decisions are based on a wide range of criteria.

And one of the biggest changes of late in how the govt makes tiering decisions is by not only assessing individual councils/boroughs but also their neighbouring councils/boroughs.

My council was doing fairly "ok" when tier 4 was slapped on us weeks ago. But looking across all the councils surrounding us, it was so clear that the situation would deteriorate rapidly, sooner rather than later - which it sadly did.

I publish the cases data every day for every council in England on www.covidmessenger.com so I am close to the data and I can see trends emerging. And most of the time, its fairly clear why tiering decisions are taken.

If you want to check your council and your surrounding councils daily - quickly and easily, you are also welcome to on www.covidmessenger.com.

Given I run Covid Messenger, I have been at times forwarded non-public information on a trust basis and while I can't disclose the details of that, I would say that the scale of parameters being considered when tiering decisions are taken is vast - and hospital capacity and potential overflow from neighbouring hospitals are critical elements.

If you have low case rates locally but hospitals are filling up in neighbouring boroughs rapidly, then the area will usually be tiered up quickly to quell additional flow of local cases overhwelming hospital capacity. Simialrly, if your cases are rising but hospitals are miraculously coping and have spare capacity, that decision to tier up the area may be delayed. It's not a particularly transparent element, but the rate of fill up in neighbouring hospitals is quite critical as causes inevitable overflow that can overwhelm quickly.

It is so tremendously complex. And the media often try to distill it into a single angry soundbite which misrepresents the situation tremendously.

@LunarSea

Has anything announced about what is happening in January for FE colleges?

Here

www.gov.uk/government/publications/further-education-fe-providers-return-in-january-2021/further-education-fe-providers-return-in-january-2021

@littleowl1 interesting but in all boroughs that surround my borough, cases are rising (and are in my borough). Most are closed but Lambeth and Lewisham for example, are not and both have similar cases (if not more) than neighbouring Southwark. I'd be very interested to hear why they missed off Redbridge initially (it has now been added). I wonder if they'll explain why places like Richmond are on but Hackney isn't.

[quote peridito]Hmmph Wed 30-Dec-20 17:34:42
Boris just said schools are safe, the dangers come from the mixing that happens in schools!

@Hmmph he did say that didn't he! I was open mouthed at the logic .I went to the on line text of his speech and that bit about mixing is omitted .
www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-30-december-2020[/quote]
He definitely said that schools are safe, the issue is the spread from the mixing of households that takes place in school.

I was typing it to a friend on WhatsApp as he said it and couldn't believe what he said. I've looked at the transcript and it's not there. But he definitely said it!

[quote kirinm]@littleowl1 interesting but in all boroughs that surround my borough, cases are rising (and are in my borough). Most are closed but Lambeth and Lewisham for example, are not and both have similar cases (if not more) than neighbouring Southwark. I'd be very interested to hear why they missed off Redbridge initially (it has now been added). I wonder if they'll explain why places like Richmond are on but Hackney isn't. [/quote]
The idea that these schools will be able to open given the number of cases in the local community is laughable.

Given the local case rate its hard to see how there will be enough staff well enough or not in isolation.

As we will no doubt fine out in due course.

What happens then will be interesting.

If i were a head teacher of a primary in those areas im not sure I'd wholeheartedly be trying to reopen for that reason. You know that even if they do manage it, its going to take a week before you end up with a bunch of bubbles being closed and teachers off and kids forced home. And thats not in anyone's interests either.

He definitely said that schools are safe, the issue is the spread from the mixing of households that takes place in school.

Clearly what he meant was, the school building itself poses no risks. He didn't say anything about the people inside it. Boris's utterances always have a bit of small print lurking somewhere.

I am really intrigued to know how schools can be regarded as 'safe'. What does Boris mean by this and how could we make other places, where people gather in large groups, equally safe?

Is it the lack of social distancing or lack of mask-wearing that does it? Or the large groups sitting close together for large periods of time?

@littleowl1

I don't know if it helps at all, but I have seen immense frustration from many as to why their council is treated differently from neighbouring boroughs/councils.

I can't profess to have all the answers but I do know that such decisions are based on a wide range of criteria.

And one of the biggest changes of late in how the govt makes tiering decisions is by not only assessing individual councils/boroughs but also their neighbouring councils/boroughs.

My council was doing fairly "ok" when tier 4 was slapped on us weeks ago. But looking across all the councils surrounding us, it was so clear that the situation would deteriorate rapidly, sooner rather than later - which it sadly did.

I publish the cases data every day for every council in England on www.covidmessenger.com so I am close to the data and I can see trends emerging. And most of the time, its fairly clear why tiering decisions are taken.

If you want to check your council and your surrounding councils daily - quickly and easily, you are also welcome to on www.covidmessenger.com.

Given I run Covid Messenger, I have been at times forwarded non-public information on a trust basis and while I can't disclose the details of that, I would say that the scale of parameters being considered when tiering decisions are taken is vast - and hospital capacity and potential overflow from neighbouring hospitals are critical elements.

If you have low case rates locally but hospitals are filling up in neighbouring boroughs rapidly, then the area will usually be tiered up quickly to quell additional flow of local cases overhwelming hospital capacity. Simialrly, if your cases are rising but hospitals are miraculously coping and have spare capacity, that decision to tier up the area may be delayed. It's not a particularly transparent element, but the rate of fill up in neighbouring hospitals is quite critical as causes inevitable overflow that can overwhelm quickly.

It is so tremendously complex. And the media often try to distill it into a single angry soundbite which misrepresents the situation tremendously.

Thank you for your data. I use it all the time and find it the easiest to understand.