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Where are people catching it?

447 replies

ilkleymoorbartat · 29/12/2020 16:51

Presumably people in Tier 4 are hardly using public transport, the buses in London are empty. Schools are off, pubs are closed. Everyone I know is obeying the rules, possibly going for outside walks with one other person. Where is this massive spread coming from?

OP posts:
donewithitalltodayandxmas · 29/12/2020 21:08

Its a virus even following the rules doesn't mean you won't get it , just limits the risk
Also if this new variant spreads more easily then a lot of what we are doing won't work
But the reality is we can't all be locked in 24/7 there is a lot of key worker jobs people don't even think about
Even home deliveries etc won't be totally risk free
All we can do is limit
But I think a lot of the cases now are schools/ work even if indirectly
My friends dc got positive result xmas day so if her and elder non school child pick up In next few days it will still be as a knock on effect from school
People have been quick to only blame rule breakers , although whilst this doesn't help its not the only factor plenty catch from doing something that is allowed / needed etc, we all have to eat
Might help if supermarkets went back to limiting bumbers , one way etc. As most don't bother with that now

TicTacTwo · 29/12/2020 21:11

People in today's figures caught it 10-14 days ago. I'm in Tier 4 and people were at school (the National rate in secondary schools was 2000+ per 100,000 during the last week of term) Our local shopping centre was crowing about higher footfall than Oxford Street in early December.

Public transport is still running as usual. People need to work, get to medical appointments and go food shopping plus they travel to nearby Tier 2/3 for in-store shopping.

Ormally · 29/12/2020 21:12

"Are masks and distance working for the new variant? It used to be 15 mins near someone who had it."

  • I don't think it was a hard and fast rule either for time, distance or place, except that people have taken up these expectations. It is likely that temperature and weather conditions can alter this.

It should be much more difficult to catch outside but this variant is more "transmissible" (in terms of being able to latch onto ACE receptors more easily, typically in the nose). January has been shown to be peak time for all previously known coronaviruses, helped by being inside with larger groups over Christmas, possibly somewhere other than where you live, then returning to your normal area and then going back to work/school and mixing normally after January starts. This pattern will be curtailed this year but not completely suppressed.

Example study quote:
"There was distinct seasonality in the identifications of the viruses. In the first 5 of the 8 years, no surveillance was conducted from June to September. When year-round surveillance was in place in the 2015–2016 through 2017–2018 study years, only 9 (2.5%) of the total 364 coronavirus-associated ARI occurred from June through September. Combined over the 8 years, the number of identifications for each virus increased in December, peaked in January or February, and began to decrease in March (Figure 1). The seasonal similarity between the 4 types is striking, with only the peak aggregate month differing between January and February."

From academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/1/9/5815743

In September the rule of 6 could technically have been legally enforced. 1 person was thought to be averagely 'safe' in terms of the transmission/ numbers game, in groups with no more than 5 others. In workplaces, shops, transport, classrooms, even queues, we are generally looking at time spent in numbers much higher than that now.

Knickerthief1 · 29/12/2020 21:12

I strongly believe it's supermarkets. I rarely go but when I do I am horrified as to how much any distancing just goes totally out of the windows. People think that because they can go to the supermarket they are somehow safer!
I also think a lot of people are rule breaking by having others in their home. One person I know who had it had been to someones house after an event. There were ten people there. 3 people went on to get Covid symptoms. She then passed it to her husband. She'd also been childminding one day a week for each of her 4 children. So far 2 sons and 1 daughter have it. If they then pass on to their families it demonstrates how quickly it can spread.

MumToBe1980 · 29/12/2020 21:12

Amazon! They are distributing covid with their parcels, well they seem to be the only winner in this pandemic! 🤔🤔🤔

middleager · 29/12/2020 21:13

School. Hospital.

Jeremyironseverything · 29/12/2020 21:13

school for me and then I passed it on to my family.

CouldBeOuting · 29/12/2020 21:15

@ilkleymoorbartat

Presumably people in Tier 4 are hardly using public transport, the buses in London are empty. Schools are off, pubs are closed. Everyone I know is obeying the rules, possibly going for outside walks with one other person. Where is this massive spread coming from?
I’m in tier 4. My household has followed the rules 100% as has the lady over the road - she lives on her own but has declined a bubble as she feels safer having no contact, I deliver her shopping to the doorstep and talk to her by telephone. However, my immediate neighbours both had visitors not only on Christmas Day but several other days. The neighbours of the lady over the road have all had visitors. Every house in my immediate vicinity have had extra cars on their drives over the last few days. I went for a walk on Christmas morning and the roads were very busy with cars full of people going visiting.

People are catching it because they don’t think the rules apply to them.....

HarryLimeFoxtrot · 29/12/2020 21:16

I still don’t know anyone who has tested positive for Covid despite living in tier 4 (I’m pretty sure DD had it in late February - she had all the symptoms). DH and I have been WFH since mid-March, as have most of our local friends. The DC have been at school as normal since September (no burst bubbles - not even at DD’s huge sixth form college). So it seems to me that workplaces are the most likely source of infection.

Imissmoominmama · 29/12/2020 21:16

The people I know who have had it caught it in schools, other than one, who caught it in hospital.

OxfordwillsaveusbyFebruary · 29/12/2020 21:17

@MumToBe1980

Amazon! They are distributing covid with their parcels, well they seem to be the only winner in this pandemic! 🤔🤔🤔
You have been told before not to shag the Amazon delivery driver.
stovetopespresso · 29/12/2020 21:18

[quote Fortherosesjoni70]@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

How is it nasty?
I'm hoping the poster doesn't eat her/his words.

If i had said, i hope you catch it, [which i didnt] that's completely different and nasty.

So wind your neck in.[/quote]
pp says its wasn't their intention to be nasty, didn't come across as nasty to me either, best leave this alone now?

princessandthedragon · 29/12/2020 21:18

I think the supermarkets must be a source of high transmission purely because of the footfall. I’m guilty of going into the supermarket far too often and whenever I do I never see anyone cleaning or disinfecting surfaces. I went to Waitrose just before Christmas and they seemed a lot more pro active compared to some of the other super markets - taking trolleys from customers in the car park and disinfecting them and controlled queuing systems where they tell you when you can join the queue and strict controls about distancing from the cashier etc.

nosswith · 29/12/2020 21:18

OP like you I live in an area where there is a reasonable attempt to follow the tier 4 requirements. Face coverings in supermarkets, people making space when walking past.

However, judging by the number of gatherings police are called to, which is probably a small percentage, the crowding of some shops pre-Christmas because the in-person shopping time was only three weeks, no wonder it has spread. Then schools, students returning from university (who should not have travelled there in September and October as SAGE proposed), and those who seem to think they like Dominic Cummings and more recently Rita Ora don't have any intention of following them, no wonder cases have risen.

pinkpetal2 · 29/12/2020 21:22

I think it's easy to pick it up really mainly from shopping.

I'm in tier 4 but the other day before Christmas I went to Wilkos,B&M and then to Costa to collect a coffee, then off too sainsburys to do my big shop all in one day.
Luckily I'm fine but only after it made me think about it.

TammyHullfigure · 29/12/2020 21:22

So in conclusion,
SCHOOLS SCHOOLS SCHOOLS

Should we, erm, close them until March? Yes, I think we should.

Katjolo · 29/12/2020 21:22

Schools

Purplethrow · 29/12/2020 21:23

My workplace has 8 cases, it’s retail and supposed to be click and collect but (some) staff and hardly any customers are keeping to the rules , also customers are travelling from other areas to get to us .

InMulieribus · 29/12/2020 21:25

The only person I know who has had it was shielding Confused.

She has several underlying conditions and is in her 80s. She was ill for precisely two days and then bounced back.

flowerycurtain · 29/12/2020 21:28

I went to Waitrose just before Christmas and they seemed a lot more pro active compared to some of the other super markets - taking trolleys from customers in the car park and disinfecting them and controlled queuing systems where they tell you when you can join the queue and strict controls about distancing from the cashier etc.

So true. The only supermarket I feel comfortable in now is Waitrose and M&S. my wallet is not thanking me!

Valenciaoranges · 29/12/2020 21:30

School and public transport

lockitdown · 29/12/2020 21:32

The only people I know directly who have had it got it from workplaces Passport office and NHS.

mantlepiece · 29/12/2020 21:34

Me and DH have been very careful since March. We have not been shopping since then, all delivery or click and collect. Certainly no socialising even during Rishis dishies.

However, we have had to attend various hospital, clinic and surgery appointments.
The hospital and surgery appointments were all very well handled, we felt perfectly safe attending these appointments.

However, my DH has to attend Wafarin clinics to get his levels checked and these clinics have got progressively worse as the months have gone on. The last 2 had more and more people in with no distancing whatsoever. The reception staff claim no responsibility saying they are not running the clinic. DH would not enter on the second occasion it was so bad. He rang the hospital to arrange an appointment at another location.

Bottom line, you have to take responsibility for yourself. You cannot trust even healthcare professionals with your safety.

Assess every situation. If it looks unsafe it probably is.

Pamperedpet · 29/12/2020 21:36

Almost everyone I know who has had it either work in a school or got it from their children. Another couple got it from a sports team.

ELM8 · 29/12/2020 21:37

Nursery for me, hadn't been anywhere except dropping DD there.. unless it came from online shopping being delivered...

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