Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I was the one linking the ad5 (hiv) article.
Thanks guys for the debate :) I've also asked professionals of their opinion (biochem expertise) so will report back if I hear something interesting.

@DamnYouAutocucumber

I'd like to see more breakdown of how the numbers work, so if 1m people get something 90% effective, how many m need something 62% (or possibly more) effective to be equal? My back of an envelope calculation is that 1m to 90% is 900000, but 2m to 62% is 1240000 people protected. If you can get double the number of people vaccinated asap by using community halls and any old building, not one that is within x radius of a - 80 storage hub, you will prevent more infection. There is no perfect answer from where we are now, but if the majority of the population have something 62% effective, it will be enough to buy us time. Are there any indications that having one vaccine will effect the usefulness of another, or is it just that we don't know until the study is done and there is no problem with having an interim and then a final (or yearly booster) vaccine?

Interesting thought. Using your numbers I'd twist it. If we give it to 1m ppl -- 620.000 will be okay. Might get it, but won't be sick. That leaves 380.000 to be virus incubators and potential sick ppl.

If I had the knowledge what I would try to find out - modeling or otherwise:

1. what saturation do I need to achieve for the best outcome? Eg for 100sq ft are with a pop of 100 ppl at a density of x --> ideal saturation is 90% (made up of course). Then see where the lowest threshold is.

1. what is the threshold for enough ppl to have been vaccinated to minimize the risk of mutation

1. what happens to point 1. if I take out certain groups - namely children. How does that effect the overall picture? Will mutation be more likely specific to them? What are the most likely mutation types might arise?

@Motorina there's no mention at all of ChAdOx1 - the viral vector used by Oxford in this article. I found it hard to believe that they wouldn't have learnt from research which was 8 years old.

Oxford vaccine has been approved.

Yessssss!

Fergus Walsh is super smiley. That’s enough for me.

All high risk to get one dose ASAP rather than by age group / risk.

Lovely news to wake-up too.

And thanks too to James & Motorina for their evidence last night.

Its hard when someone is relentless and you start to have doubts. Seeing their posts proving areas one of the arguments was a lie was very welcome.

Not really been following the debate but I know hpc friends said that even 50% efficacy would be brilliant.

Good news on Oxford. Hoping it can be rolled out ASAP.

Oxford vaccine has been approved
hurray!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Apparently Matt Hancock saying vaccine to be rolled out from Monday :)

Interesting decision on the vaccination groups; from BBC:
"A statement added that the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) – which advises the government on who to vaccinate first – had said the priority should be to give as many people in at-risk groups their first dose, rather than providing the required two doses in as short a time as possible.

Everyone will still receive their second dose and this will be within 12 weeks of their first, it added."

So clearly they think the efficacy isn't much affected by when the second dose is given (within 12 weeks). It's amazing news, even if it just stops vulnerable people from becoming too unwell.

Fantastic news!

For vaccine efficacy, it helps to look at how many in the control group got covid symptoms compared to the vaccine group. This is the chart for Oxford after 2 doses. Hopefully with the new data, they will publish the chart after one dose, but there is a clear difference.

The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is of course more impressive, but not much use if we don’t have supplies/can’t roll it out fast enough.

Incidentally, the ‘Pfizer’ vaccine is really the BioNTech vaccine as it was developed by the German firm BioNTech. PFizer is handling logistics/running trials.

Yes, interesting on the delay. From the Lancet paper it may be a bonus from the less systematic trial. They had difficulties getting hold of the second dose, and in some cases had originally planned to only give one dose, so they have data on what happens if there is a longer gap between doses.

That’s great news. I wonder if they will do mass ‘drop-in’ roll-outs rather than trying to organise it by age.

@Wakeupin2022

Lovely news to wake-up too.

And thanks too to James & Motorina for their evidence last night.

Its hard when someone is relentless and you start to have doubts. Seeing their posts proving areas one of the arguments was a lie was very welcome.

Yes, thank you!

They are also giving Pfizer to as many first doses as possible, with second doses up to 12 weeks later. That’s fantastic as it means as many highly vulnerable as possible can get it.

@Eyewhisker

Yes, interesting on the delay. From the Lancet paper it may be a bonus from the less systematic trial. They had difficulties getting hold of the second dose, and in some cases had originally planned to only give one dose, so they have data on what happens if there is a longer gap between doses.

That’s great news. I wonder if they will do mass ‘drop-in’ roll-outs rather than trying to organise it by age.

There was also a significant delay on the US trial when the FDA suspended it in between doses.

I decided to no longer post here, I sometimes read. However I am going to make one exception and say that what I learnt last time someone decided to behave like a troll and derail a thread was that you should report each and every post that breaches mumsnet guidelines.

The person behaving like a troll made more than one mistake. Vaccine combination trials are underway. The vector used for Oxford is not one anyone is expected to react to but that is why we have clinical trials, it has been tested. Clearly the troll is ill-informed and not a suitable person to listen to on vaccines or anything else, since they have shown so little sense on this.

Maybe they have shares in a different vaccine, maybe they are just an attention seeking idiot. Either way they are best reported and ignored.

@YuleAreBeingUnREASTIEable

Oxford vaccine has been approved.

Great news!

I am interested in data about the Oxford vaccine. I’m certainly not an anti vaxxer, but I do have concerns about the effect receiving a vaccine that protects 50% of recipients after two doses will have on the behaviour of all those recipients after only one dose. I worry many people will simply think vaccinated = safe and compensate their behaviour accordingly.

It's an interesting timeframe, 12 weeks. There has been some clear evidence of both waning immunity and reinfections. However immunity looks like 8 months in general (www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/two-studies-find-covid-19-antibodies-last-8-months) and reinfections nobody seems to understand (through different strains it's thought, and in at least one case quickly: www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext, also www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/11/16/though-rare-the-number-of-reinfections-with-covid-19-is-growing/?sh=552a6b1cc8ac). What's common is to only count positive PCR tests as a reinfection after 3 months, which must have been based on something but I'm not sure why 3 months was picked. Does anyone know if this is a similar timeframe for other diseases, or very specific to covid?

A few other articles of interest;

1. The new variant makes Regeneron useless: doi.org/fk6h; probably looked like less of an issue at time of publish than now.
2. 90% of French cases went undetected: doi.org/fn9k.

Sorry for misinformation, Oxford is more than 50%, for some reason I lost my tab from the link posted earlier as I was making my post and seen, looking at other posts, to have got the numbers wrong.

J&J vaccine is the one to watch. Submission happening soon.

@Noellodee

I am interested in data about the Oxford vaccine. I’m certainly not an anti vaxxer, but I do have concerns about the effect receiving a vaccine that protects 50% of recipients after two doses will have on the behaviour of all those recipients after only one dose. I worry many people will simply think vaccinated = safe and compensate their behaviour accordingly.

The goal of the government has always been to protect the NHS.

The Oxford vaccine has shown to prevent serious disease. No one in the vaccine arm of the trial needed to be hospitalised.

I would imagine measures like masks and social distancing will need to be kept for quite a few months more yet, but hopefully as the risk of hospitalisation decreases and the pressure on the NHS grows less the economy can then start to open up.