Daily stats, numbers, data thread 28 Dec

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-[statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak]]
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths [[public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9]]
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Well if Novavax is so good I'm sure people will consider us getting it at some point. Either for the first tranche of vaccinations or when these first vaccinations immunity might start to wane.

Interesting warning. It's from a while back and in regards to any adenovirus vector.

"We are writing to express concern about the use of a recombinant adenovirus type-5 (Ad5) vector for a COVID-19 phase 1 vaccine study,1 and subsequent advanced trials. Over a decade ago, we completed the Step and Phambili phase 2b studies that evaluated an Ad5 vectored HIV-1 vaccine administered in three immunisations for efficacy against HIV-1 acquisition.2, 3 Both international studies found an increased risk of HIV-1 acquisition among vaccinated men.2, 4 The Step trial found that men who were Ad5 seropositive and uncircumcised on entry into the trial were at elevated risk of HIV-1 acquisition during the first 18 months of follow-up.5 "

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32156-5/fulltext

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@Wakeupin2022
There are other alternatives you know. Close borders. Lockdown. Ease up. Look at asian countries for examples.[/quote]

Have we got the mindset for that behaviour though? Haven't seen enough evidence so far.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]Interesting warning. It's from a while back and in regards to any adenovirus vector.

"We are writing to express concern about the use of a recombinant adenovirus type-5 (Ad5) vector for a COVID-19 phase 1 vaccine study,1 and subsequent advanced trials. Over a decade ago, we completed the Step and Phambili phase 2b studies that evaluated an Ad5 vectored HIV-1 vaccine administered in three immunisations for efficacy against HIV-1 acquisition.2, 3 Both international studies found an increased risk of HIV-1 acquisition among vaccinated men.2, 4 The Step trial found that men who were Ad5 seropositive and uncircumcised on entry into the trial were at elevated risk of HIV-1 acquisition during the first 18 months of follow-up.5 "

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32156-5/fulltext[/quote]
Wasn't there some hiv connection with an Australian vaccine in development?

I do think a few people on here need to think about how they’re reacting. We’re all supposedly adults and it’s become rather bullying. Not really necessary when people’s intentions are good. From my perspective I think it’s important people are aware of potential issues re vaccines, it’s up to individuals to make their own decisions but I’m just throwing my opinion out there from reading I’ve done and people might be prompted to follow up. It’s the biggest step out of this we’re about to take and we don’t have a good track record to date making the right decisions.

TheSun as either Witty / Valance said, Lockdown is a blunt tool and can only be used once (i think they said once). We've used it more than that. People are losing jobs, people are missing their family, people are lonely, mental health is struggling.

I know on a personal level my DF is deteriorating due to his condition and day centres etc being closed.

Its not going to work for ever. If Oxford doesn't get approved, I think that might be it actually for a lot of people. Which is terrifying.

Disclaimer: my family will follow rules as long as we have too, but I really think as a country we are getting to that tipping point.

Obviously that is not a valid reason to approve Oxford vaccine, but it is a concern I do have if its not approved.

But it's all right to be extremely patronising? Treating us if we're all ignorant fools?

@Wakeupin2022

TheSun as either Witty / Valance said, Lockdown is a blunt tool and can only be used once (i think they said once). We've used it more than that. People are losing jobs, people are missing their family, people are lonely, mental health is struggling.

I know on a personal level my DF is deteriorating due to his condition and day centres etc being closed.

Its not going to work for ever. If Oxford doesn't get approved, I think that might be it actually for a lot of people. Which is terrifying.

Disclaimer: my family will follow rules as long as we have too, but I really think as a country we are getting to that tipping point.

Obviously that is not a valid reason to approve Oxford vaccine, but it is a concern I do have if its not approved.

Yes my Dh has just come back from todays dialysis session. In the first wave his sessions were reduced by 1 and a half hours per week for "extra cleaning". My 85 year old df has had 2 hospital admissions in the last few months; heart attack and blood clot on the brain. Photos show he had visibly deteriorated.

The Oxford trial is littered with errors here’s one

100 people in the UK (0% seroprevalence, NCT00890760, NCT00890019) & 57 people from Gambia (9% seroprevalence, NCT01373879).

this is literally all the ChAdOx1 paper uses to justify "low pre-existing seroprevalence [NT50 > 200]".

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3396660/#s3g

Hi everyone. Can someone explain vaccine efficacy stats to me?

For example, say a vaccine is tested and found to be 90 percent effective. What does that mean? Does it mean that if you expose 100 people to "certain" infection, 90 of them will not get ill at all, and 10 will be equally as I'll as if they had not been vaccinated?

Or does it mean that for every person in an exposure situation there is a 90 percent chance they won't catch it, and if they do it will be mild?

Or does it mean that they are 90 percent less likely to be seriously ill from a covid infection?

Or something else?

@tobee it wasn’t treating you as ignorant it’s exasperation at the support Oxford has when it’s littered with schoolboy errors. We should all be up in arms about it.

You can row back all you like but you've repeatedly said posters are in denial and only look at Mumsnet threads. But whatever

They started Phase 3 before sorting out dosing etc from Phase 2. It’s an utter mess and yes given the crisis we’re in I think there should be accountability. I think there’s been too much weight on the name.

Now your exasperation is misplaced

Oak, you've been asked politely several times to discuss this in another thread- this is not due to bullying you or whatever but directly because of the history of these threads.

They were set up specifically to signpost and link to primary-source data and to avoid the bunfighting of the thousands of other covid threads, which have been exacerbating the anxiety of several people, me included. Rational discussion of actual data is all I am looking for.

There have been 30+ of these threads and they have been a lifeline to those who have followed them throughout and are able to purely discuss the data at hand. With respect, your posts are not at all in the spirit of the thread. Please please please, could you have the basic courtesy of taking your comments that are not directly related to pure data to another thread, particularly when you are just repeating your opinion over and over without adding any further data or numerical analysis, or making personal digs at posters. If you are talking about data, please link directly to it each time you do.

Filling up the thread with arguments means that keeping up with the data takes more time, time which many of us don't have. Really interesting, informed and perceptive posters have been chased off the other threads due to exactly this sort of posting behaviour. It is really uncivil.

I don't want to also fill up the thread with this sort of post, so I will try to keep it to just this one, but if you want the historical context of these threads why not read the old ones so you can get a flavour of what it is for.
You will have much better engagement with the kind of debate you are looking for if you start your own thread rather than hijacking these ones.

Yes and I'm guilty of filling up the thread with counter arguments

@Quarantino I’ve just linked the data source above. You’re literally now attempting to throw people off because you don’t like their comments?

@RosesforMama

This might help -

www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section6.html

Key point -"So a VE of 90% indicates a 90% reduction in disease occurrence among the vaccinated group, or a 90% reduction from the number of cases you would expect if they have not been vaccinated."

[quote PatriciaHolm]@RosesforMama

This might help -

www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section6.html

Key point -"So a VE of 90% indicates a 90% reduction in disease occurrence among the vaccinated group, or a 90% reduction from the number of cases you would expect if they have not been vaccinated."

[/quote]
So it doesn’t necessarily mean that if 100 people were all deliberately exposed only 10 would develop symptoms, correct? Because in a vaccine trial not all of the vaccinated are exposed to the virus?

I'm not attempting anything, and I'm definitely not literally attempting to throw things. You can see what I am asking by reading the words I posted.
If you wish to claim I am literally throwing things, please provide the data to back it up, and take it to a thread that is about arguments not covid data.

@tobee

Sorry what's the name is this thread? Is it the ranting non critical thinking only answering some questions and dissing Astra Zeneca while be as patronising as possible thread or is it something else?

@Em777
Afaik these trials were not set up to deliberately infect people and see how they respond. They were given the vaccine and then let out into gen pop to live their lives as before and let's see what happens. In very basic terms :)

I've heard many scientists voicing opinions that there should be a phase 4 where they actively recruit for people to be infected, but haven't seen more about it than wishing for it. I'm not convinced it would pass an ethical panel though.

That article you've linked to says it was published online July 13th 2012.

That is quite a long time ago in scientific terms.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@Em777
Afaik these trials were not set up to deliberately infect people and see how they respond. They were given the vaccine and then let out into gen pop to live their lives as before and let's see what happens. In very basic terms :)

I've heard many scientists voicing opinions that there should be a phase 4 where they actively recruit for people to be infected, but haven't seen more about it than wishing for it. I'm not convinced it would pass an ethical panel though.[/quote]
I thought there was talk of challenge trials. It was a while ago now though.
And given there's no effective treatment it is fairly unethical