London School of Hygiene & Medicine states that all schools need to be closed

[SoscaredforJan]

Pre-print of the new B.1.1.7 lineage published 23rd Dec 2020.

“Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed.

We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures.

It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.”

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

@QueenoftheAir

Can we avoid closing schools? Model would say yes, provided transmission can be reduced in other sectors to compensate.

@CoffeeandCroissant that is an important proviso, isn't it?

We should have kept pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops closed, so we can keep schools open ...

People need to understand that in order to keep schools open, we ALL have to keep faithfully to greater restrictions in all other areas of our private & public lives.

Is this a sacrifice we are all prepared to make?

The problem with this disease is that it's most easily transmitted in closed, indoor spaces, where there's little distance between people, and people are talking. That's a definition of school classrooms, but ALSO of all our homes.

But there are limits to how much the government can regulate our behaviour in private.

Surely this also goes against what happened in Kent. A National lockdown but cases still rose.

I agree you are right we all saw angry gym owners etc they may not be prepared to risk their business for schools. I mean not that they will have a choice but still.

@QueenoftheAir

Can we avoid closing schools? Model would say yes, provided transmission can be reduced in other sectors to compensate.

@CoffeeandCroissant that is an important proviso, isn't it?

We should have kept pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops closed, so we can keep schools open ...

People need to understand that in order to keep schools open, we ALL have to keep faithfully to greater restrictions in all other areas of our private & public lives.

Is this a sacrifice we are all prepared to make?

The problem with this disease is that it's most easily transmitted in closed, indoor spaces, where there's little distance between people, and people are talking. That's a definition of school classrooms, but ALSO of all our homes.

But there are limits to how much the government can regulate our behaviour in private.

No, it’s not a compromise I’m willing to make, nor is it many of my friends and family either. I’ve already compromised on it for one term, I’m not doing it again. We are all in this pandemic together, we either all make sacrifices or take it in turns.

But what about key workers working from home like NHS workers (including admin), civil servants, transport, Covid response planners and others who need to work to keep society functioning? Are we expecting them to be up with their young children from 7am-7pm, do the chores, and then login at 7pm for an 8 hour shift? I tried working these sorts of hours in the last lockdown - it's completely unsustainable and I came close to a complete breakdown. Or should they lock their young children in the next room and throw a sandwich in there every now and again?

This is the situation I was in last lockdown and I haven't yet heard one person suggest how it's practically doable. Lots of tutting about entitled working parents not wanting to 'be inconvenienced', though

I don’t disagree at all, but I would add that DH and I are both teachers and it’s exactly the situation we were in too: both teaching full timetables live online, with a preschooler looking after himself (and interrupting various lessons) and a primary school child with online schooling which was far more complicated than he was capable of managing on his own, all with only two laptops so I ended up doing half my teaching on a mobile phone. It was hell.

@GoldenOmber. Yes, it's tempting to say "fuck it" and just resign. Not that simple of course... A lot of people (including me) have worked hard in their careers and don't want to throw it all away...For even more, especially single parents, giving up work is not financially viable.

But I don't know any other group of people who are being expected to survive on less than 4 hours sleep a night and no down-time for an extended period of time. That's slightly more than "inconvenience".

I’ve started finding these threads pointless now because one thing I’ve learnt is that the virus is so unpredictable. One minute we are doing xyz to adapt and survive and then it totally flips and changes everything in moments.
God forbid, but if the virus was to mutate again and this time lead to serious illness in children and a higher chance of long term disease such as long covid, what would happen then to the parents who can’t work from home and homeschool at the same time?
Always try to have some flexibility or a plan b just in case. This virus has shown us times that we would never have imagined in our wildest dreams.

golden why weren't yours at school, if you are a keyworker?

Always try to have some flexibility or a plan b just in case
Ah yes because it's just as simple as that isn't it.

@Piggyinblankets

golden why weren't yours at school, if you are a keyworker?

Because my local authority would not allow keyworker provision for anyone who was WFH. Didn't matter what job you did. Unless both parents counted as key workers and both parents were working out of the home, no keyworker provision for you, have fun bouncing a baby on your lap while having phone calls about deliveries of body bags.

There were a lot of people in my position in spring/summer.

Right, OK. That was their decision then, not the schools.

Presumably , you'd rather ,ultimately, have fewer body bags to arrange?

Certainly wasn't the case in my LA.

DH and I are both key workers but were told to keep kids at home as we can both WFH. It was hell. Everyone suffered. Our DC, our service users and ourselves.

@Piggyinblankets

Right, OK. That was their decision then, not the schools.

Presumably , you'd rather ,ultimately, have fewer body bags to arrange?

Oooooh no, I love body bags, me. Don't care who dies as long as I'm not 'inconvenienced'.

Don't be so fucking ridiculous.

I didn't say anything about you being inconvenienced.

I am trying not to lose it and get furious with people on here because it doesn't help anyone, but REALLY.

As if it's not horrendous enough dealing with all the work that me and my colleagues were dealing with, and doing it with no rest and no downtime as our children got bored and furious and fell off sofas and sobbed "it feels like you hate me Mummy", and doing it all through a pandemic, and knowing it's totally invisible to most of the public (unless it's the 1 in 100 time something goes wrong in which case it's an UTTER SHAMBLES and we are OVERPAID PEN-PUSHERS) - but now I can't even say out loud it's hard without someone finger-wagging me about how it might be nice to have fewer deaths and isn't that the main thing?

Have a word with yourself.

doing it with no rest and no downtime as our children got bored and furious and fell off sofas and sobbed "it feels like you hate me Mummy", and doing it all through a pandemic, and knowing it's totally invisible to most of the public

Yep. This. Not doing it again. If schools and nurseries have to close, I won't be working. My employer will just have to cope with that however they will. I'm not risking my child's welfare again. If it comes to it, I'll get my GP to sign me off with stress.

Sorry golden but you have consistently and persistently finger wagged at teachers. Many of whom completely understand how hard it is to WFH with young children in tow.

No one has called you an overpaid pen pusher. However, you have repeatedly emphasised on this thread how critical your job is tot he covid effort so I would guess you would like to see a way beyond what looks like a developing crisis.

I am sorry you felt your children suffered and were neglected. I definitely think your LA should be finding more ways to provide for keyworker children. There was definitely a misapprehension of the eas of WFH before

Schools, at present have no appreciable safety measures . that urgently needs addressing as that is a contributing factor to children having to SI left right and centre.

My own DS's schol has gone form no cases for two months to 14 in one day. that isn't sustainable.

Sorry golden but you have consistently and persistently finger wagged at teachers. Many of whom completely understand how hard it is to WFH with young children in tow.

Where? Where, once, have I done that?

No more can I find evidence of people 'finger wagging ' at you?

If government want to close schools again, they will have to compensate working mums/dads/single parents properly this time.

You can’t work from home and look after younger kids at the same time and educate them. It isn’t possible so either 1) option of furlough for all and payment or 2) massive tax breaks/actual payment is required.

There needs to be a movement for working mums/dads etc. Their mental health matters too. They have already been thrown under the bus once.

@WanderingMilly

I am no scientist but I have been saying for a long time that all schools and colleges need to remain closed, otherwise the rate of infection just isn't going to go down enough.

It's terrible in terms of education but honestly, so are high infection rates, high death rates, an over-stretched NHS and total economic meltdown.

When will folk listen?

Agree .

There is a tax break for WFH.

@Piggyinblankets

No more can I find evidence of people 'finger wagging ' at you?

By which you mean "oops, you haven't once blamed teachers, let alone persistently and consistently, but I still feel justified in saying you have and therefore responding to your heartfelt expression of your own difficulties in a way that didn't mention teachers once by saying 'Presumably , you'd rather ,ultimately, have fewer body bags to arrange?'"

Thanks for that, yeah.

It my not be the massive one you refer to, mind!

golden you are being a bit obtuse.

I have no idea why that was perceived as me telling you off in any way. Sorry if you felt that way.