BBC news...Matt Hancock says tier 4 could last for months due to this new strain

[ssd]

He must be joking.

Months of this there will be no businesses left

So many people are already struggling, this is going to push a lot of people over the edge, financially and/or mentally.

You can tell this government is full of people who are totally insulated from all the consequences of their decisions

Is there anyone who didn't see that coming?

@DownstairsMixUp I'm so sorry

I suppose one aspect is, people thought they could skip seeing relatives in the 24 Nov-20 Dec window because they would see them for a few days solid at Xmas. Now they know that the govt could rescind such promises, they won't believe govt next time govt announce easing of restrictions. They have extra motivation to disregard the rules.

Easter is going to be interesting (in worst sense of that word).

There will be binges of social contact as rules are released next time.

If the new strain increases the r by 0.4 then there really isn't going to be an alternative unfortunately.

Months? Oh dear.

There's always an alternative.

I particularly liked Robert Peston on Twitter pointing that out and calling for acceleration of the vaccine program. If it was that simple it would be done. It isn’t. It’s obvious this will last probably until at least April, and I expect more areas to fall into tier 4 shortly after Christmas. I’m braced for school closures as well, although I want to see every other thing done first. Unless we want the nhs to entirely disintegrate, which involves potentially you or your relative not being treated for anything (not just covid) what is the alternative?

I do wonder if it will change the vaccine priority list though and if there will be arguments for giving it regionally, prioritising key workers over the elderly etc.

I agree we will see less and less compliance with the rules.

People sacrificed a lot to 'save Christmas' and now it's being yanked away at the last minute. For a lot of people it will be the final straw.

The government can try to keep Tier 4 til spring but they cannot enforce it if masses of people decide to not abide by it.

That's a good question @Theotherrudolph

If things are so bad in London and the SE that everything has to be shut down and no one can leave the area, then you would think those areas should be prioritised for the vaccine.

What a stupid thing to say. They don’t even know if this new strain is any more dangerous than the other one. If it isn’t, and there isn’t a huge rise is hospital admissions/deaths (and so far there hasn’t been a massive change even though this strain was first detected back in September) then it makes no difference that there are more cases. We could do with fewer doomsayers at the moment 🙄

In that case, prioritise vaccinations for T4 residents then.

Other ones*

@dreamingbohemian

That's a good question *@Theotherrudolph*

If things are so bad in London and the SE that everything has to be shut down and no one can leave the area, then you would think those areas should be prioritised for the vaccine.

That's happened to us in Wales too you know, and Northern Ireland, and Scotland. Do you think anyone has been calling for us to be prioritised? Welsh cases are the highest in the country.

The cynic in me thinks how coincidental that the country gets locked down again for the 'new strain' just as we are on the cusp of a monumental crash out of Europe. Typical distraction technique.

I don't remember all this hooha back in July when the Spanish variant of covid was running rampant throughput the UK - being brought back by all those holidaymakers. I guess that's because back then the powers that be didn't want to give up their holiday abroad during Parliment's summer recess, now, they just don't want you to know about the shit Brexit terms so are pre-emptively lining up the scapegoat for when it all goes horribly wrong - the new strain.

@Glittertwins

In that case, prioritise vaccinations for T4 residents then.

I did wonder if this is why they were so quick to put the whole of London into T4 when so many London boroughs have relatively low rates. To justify vaccinating Londoner’s first. Does feel like they are starting to set the scene, with all the talk of how concentrated the new strain of the virus is there.

Unfortunately no one knows whether the Pfizer vaccine affects transmission rates as their trial wasn't designed to test that. There is some evidence that the Oxford vaccine does, so hopefully that will be available soon.

@pennylane83

The cynic in me thinks how coincidental that the country gets locked down again for the 'new strain' just as we are on the cusp of a monumental crash out of Europe. Typical distraction technique.

I don't remember all this hooha back in July when the Spanish variant of covid was running rampant throughput the UK - being brought back by all those holidaymakers. I guess that's because back then the powers that be didn't want to give up their holiday abroad during Parliment's summer recess, now, they just don't want you to know about the shit Brexit terms so are pre-emptively lining up the scapegoat for when it all goes horribly wrong - the new strain.

Hanlon's Razor

Hanlon's razor is a principle or rule of thumb that states, "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".

I think we may have well established that Johnson and the entire Cabinet are somewhat intellectually challenged.

It was fairly obvious some time ago that the government were not listening to advice and were dithering instead of making decisions and have an aversion to being told home truths they don't like.

Johnson was desperate not to be mean and for the public to like him. In doing so he's ended up setting himself up to be the Grinch.

The same will happen with Brexit.

All because Johnson is the Disney Dad PM.

@Glittertwins

In that case, prioritise vaccinations for T4 residents then.

T4.

Coming to a place near you soon.

You can't prioritise the whole country.

well I'm no fan of MH but I think best to be as honest as you can be, and then hopefully be able to turn the situation around, than promise that it's only for x weeks and then have it carry on.

You can’t prioritise the whole country, no.

So, what is the priority? Vaccinating over 80s and HCP, definitely. That is happening, is it not?

Do people agree keeping schools open is a priority?

All because Johnson is the Disney Dad PM

That is the perfect description of him.

@bumbleymummy

What a stupid thing to say. They don’t even know if this new strain is any more dangerous than the other one. If it isn’t, and there isn’t a huge rise is hospital admissions/deaths (and so far there hasn’t been a massive change even though this strain was first detected back in September) then it makes no difference that there are more cases. We could do with fewer doomsayers at the moment 🙄

It's not about it being more dangerous in terms of making the disease worse, it's about it being spread more easily and therefore more people getting it.

Hospital admissions and deaths are lagging indicators, so even if disease severity is unchanged (most likely scenario), more cases will lead to more admissions and more deaths.

In the affected areas, cases have risen rapidly (doubling in less than a week in London for example).

Fortunately, current cases are predominantly among the lower age groups, so lower risk but even so hospital admissions are now rising faster in those areas too (see attached). And we know from past experience that high case numbers amongst younger groups will almost certainly spread to older, more vulnerable groups (Christmas mixing would accelerate this).

What a dick head MH is. The whole government is full of them. Glorious dick heads. Patriotic dick heads. Enormous dick heads. The lot of them.

@RedToothBrush T4

Will it be presented by Vernon From Bolton and The Sarpong woman this time?