BBC news...Matt Hancock says tier 4 could last for months due to this new strain

[ssd]

He must be joking.

Months of this there will be no businesses left

Presumably equivalent virus mutations are happening all over the world now. Bangladesh has had 7000 deaths & 5million cases. That they counted & let's face it, we assume they are missing a lot of cases. India next door has 10x as many people for the virus to transit thru and come up with diverse mutations. Pakistan, Iran... there's no special reason why Uk would have a truly special mutation.

Absolutely. We just have advanced detection and sequencing.

All those countries you mention did really well when they had the stringent lockdowns. It's since they lapsed them that things became bad again. Same with us. The only solution is short, harsh lockdowns at frequent intervals. It is very unlikely the NHS will be able to cope with the amount of new cases that are going to be coming through due to this ridiculous tier system. My brother talks about treating Covid-19 patients in their 80s on hospital trolleys over the last month. After Christmas, who knows what it will be like.

Other countries have different mutations. I don't think many or any have this fast spreading one that we have. It is thought to have originated here, probably in the body of an extremely immune-suppressed patient where it lingered for a long time.

For any straightforward and unbiased information about the virus, I recommend that you look out for Jeremy Farrar, my former boss at Wellcome Trust. He is a member of SAGE and extremely knowledgeable. On his Twitter account he also links to a lot of work being undertaken at the moment in the science community.

@TheLittleDogLaughed

If we keep letting the virus get ahead of us, as we are, we're looking at prolonged lockdowns, more illness, more death. All the countries who have taken very stringent methods are doing way better than we are.

Not true. Italy and Spain had very harsh lockdowns. Kids not allowed out of the flats. No exercise allowances. Only one person allowed to the shops. Schools closed for months. They are now looking at another major lockdown as numbers are rising.

@Ihatemyseleffordoingthis

I think schools will end up closing

This is an absolute tragedy for our children and young people (not just in terms of education either) and they will quite rightly end up hating the older generations who have allowed this to happen

IF ONLY efforts and resources had been made available to make schools safe - co-opting empty buildings, p/t learning, optional home learning, recruiting additional teachers - then they wouldn't have been the hotbed of virus they apparently are

IF ONLY our NHS hadn't been asset-stripped for the last 10 years and had capacity that could be activated to allow it to function in a crisis

IF ONLY proper investment had been made in testing, and test and trace

Couldn't agree more. Particularly the years of under-investment in the NHS, by successive governments.

Just a reminder that unpaid family carers help the NHS a LOT.

More than 7 in 10 (74%) of the UK public feel carers are undervalued by society for the support they provide and this figure rises to just over eight in ten (83%) of those who have previous experience of caring themselves. The unpaid care provided by the UK's carers has been estimated to be worth £132 billon a year

Do you really want us downing tools NOW??!!!!!!!!! Because that would help to collapse the NHS in a normal year let alone a Covid one? Because believe me i have been seriously fucking considering it. Ive HAD it with the emotional blackmail Ive reached the end of my fucking rope with it and so have lots of others.

Be DAMN careful what you wish for

MercyBooth I'm not sure what you're trying to say ... what emotional blackmail?

Ihatemyselffordoingthis I completely agree. Closing schools could and should have been avoided but now I don't think it can. Even if we keep them open for a while, inevitably it will come to it. I think do it sooner than later when things have gone so far that they have to be closed for much longer. Johnson says he follows the science but he really doesn't; scientists are adamant that there will be no break in virus transmission until schools are closed.

“It is very unlikely the NHS will be able to cope with the amount of new cases that are going to be coming through due to this ridiculous tier system”.

But we were told the NHS would be overwhelmed during the first lockdown. And the Nightingales were empty!

We know so much more about treating the virus now compared to March. What drugs are most effective etc. So hospitals can deal with it more efficiently.

And the scientists are not all pro lockdown! Far from it! Even the WHO now advises against lockdowns where possible.

And as for this new mutation... viruses mutate. That’s what they do. There is no proof that the mutation will be more deadly, so most people who catch it will still be unaffected.

Those who are vulnerable should be supported to shield. And people should be sensible. But locking us down for another month or more is insane!!

someonetookmyname - Hmmm ... the Nightingale centres were added into the mix at the moment when case numbers had begun to fall in the first lockdown. Prior to that hospitals were overwhelmed. If they weren't why have there been so many routine operations and cancer treatments put on hold?

Agree that hospitals can treat it better now than before. But the current case numbers are really shooting up and there are still multiple deaths daily.

I can't find advice from the WHO that says there shouldn't be a lockdown in this current moment of the pandemic. Of course nobody wants a lockdown - it has so many repercussions in so many ways.

Of course viruses mutate. The current mutation which is the dominant strand of the disease and has been since the beginning of November has mutated to be much more rapidly infectious with the possibility that it also has a greater impact on younger people and children. There are also three other mutations, which haven't been transmitted too much so far. Two of these look to have more devastating effects.

If we don't lockdown, cases will rise, new mutations ill occur. It's not just going to disappear ... or are you pro the herd immunity theory? Wait until the vulnerable have been wiped out and the young and healthy are left? I know you're not saying that. But really, what is the option? The tier system has not worked at all, everyone is confused, people are moving from tier to tier - how is it possible to police that?

locking us down for another month or so is insane - why do you think it is happening then? The government have known about the new mutation since the beginning of November and didn't lock us down. Do you not think that the fact they have now, at Christmas, it rings some alarm bells? Boris wouldn't risk losing popularity if there weren't serious concerns ...

TheLittleDogLaughed
the current case numbers are really shooting up and there are still multiple deaths daily.

691 deaths in the UK yesterday, and 36,804 new cases, bringing it to a total of 2,110,314 cases so far. (That's only people who have tested positive, not those who were unable to get a test earlier in the year.)

It feels like quite a lot, somehow.

I suspect that it was clear the new strain had been identified and was going to be noticed by the countries of Europe, so Boris and co had no choice about doing something and being seen to do something if they wanted the borders with France, Belgium and the Netherlands not to be closed indefinitely. We have after all decided not to be part of Europe any more after the end of next week, so we are hardly their first priority at this point.

A quick google search should confirm the WHO advice to avoid lockdowns where possible.

Where are you getting your information about mutations with more devastating effects? Sorry but it sounds like scaremongering to me. Yes covid is a threat but it has been blown way out of proportion.

And no I don’t believe we should wait for the vulnerable to be wiped out! What a ridiculous thing to say. Sadly this is the response of many strict lockdown fans - to accuse anyone who disagrees with them of wanting other people to die!

It’s like me asking you, as a lockdown supporter, “ do you not care about all the children who will be left in poverty, relying on food banks because their parents have lost their jobs” or “do you not care about suicides increasing” or even “do you not care about fatal diseases being missed whilst gp surgeries lockdown”.

I lost faith in Boris and his very narrow group of scientific advisors a long time ago. There are many reputable scientists who disagree with the lockdown approach. I imagine they’ve only announced it now, because they feel a drip feed approach is less likely to cause protests.

Personally I think an effective test and trace system, whilst encouraging people to take sensible measures, and to shield if they need/want to is the best way forward.

The reality is, regardless of the rules, there will still be a lot of people who don’t stick to lockdown. And a lot of the people who do follow the rules, would probably have socially distanced and been sensible without a national lockdown anyway. So I do wonder whether wrecking the economy and endangering the lives of people with other serious illnesses is worth it?

Someonetookmyname I couldn't find anything on the WHO site relating to where we are now. A comment that, in general, lockdowns are a bad idea, which I didn't find either, would be understandable. They are not good but sometimes there is no other option.

I mentioned earlier that reading Jeremy Farrar's posts on Twitter or wherever gives links to very detailed information from scientists about the mutations and the concerns. Definitely not scaremongering, they are cutting edge scientists working on the vaccines. These are not the scientific advisors to Boris. Jeremy Farrar is on the SAGE committee - I think he may be the only purely independent science expert left now after that other guy resigned when he breached lockdown rules with his girlfriend. The rest of SAGE are Boris cronies, many of them not scientists.

The test and trace system is a disaster generally, it has completely failed.

The reality is, regardless of the rules, there will still be a lot of people who don’t stick to lockdown. And a lot of the people who do follow the rules, would probably have socially distanced and been sensible without a national lockdown anyway. So I do wonder whether wrecking the economy and endangering the lives of people with other serious illnesses is worth it?

That's why the lockdown has to be like it was during the first one with EVERYTHING closed so the opportunities for people to ignore the rules are lessened and not left to their own choice. The economy is undoubtedly wrecked by lockdowns but the lives of people with other serious illnesses are wrecked by not having a lockdown which, by reducing numbers, gives the NHS some breathing space to look after people with other conditions.

As a number of scientists have said we need to be ahead of the virus, not constantly mopping up the chaos when it hasn't been properly controlled. What SHOULD have happened is a strict national lockdown last September, as Boris was advised to do, for 3 weeks over half term when kids were off anyway. We'd have broken the spread at that crucial moment and saved thousands of lives. As it is, in tier 4, it appears we will now be locked in our homes again until Easter. This could have been avoided by swift, strong responses. The tier system is utterly useless.

A slightly longer Google would confirm that the the WHO said lockdowns should only be used as a last resort. They didn’t mean don’t use lockdowns, they meant use other methods to avoid the virus getting out of control so you don’t need lockdowns.

The U.K. unfortunately is very much in the totally fucked and no option other than lockdown category atm. Possibly things might have been different with a different government policy and a greater sense of individual/community responsibility.

Well said.

Forget test and trace, forget tiers. Full lockdown, schools closed, focus on the vaccine.

@TheLittleDogLaughed can I go to work in your plan? I walk dogs for a living. I'm not eligible for any help, or furlough type schemes and I've been paying higher rate tax for 28 years.

I am on my knees financially. I cannot pay my bills or survive if I can't work. Savings swallowed up already and am about to complete a ten day isolation as DH has caught Covid.

Plus to many of us getting a dog outside when its owner is out at work (mostly nhs and other key workers) is important. My job feels important to me.

You need to spare a thought for the many many people in my situation. We can't work from home, we can't survive without working, we have slipped through the net of getting any help through no fault of our own.

Not to mention the thousands of key workers who keep the wheels turning- bin men, supermarket staff, lorry drivers etc..

Apologies if you had already considered this stuff but sometimes it seems like people suggesting a total lockdown view life through a very small and naive lense.

Total lockdown like the first one. Obviously people still have to work. I’ve had the shittest year ever myself; I am concerned though that if we don’t take tough measures in short bursts this will drag on and on which will be worse in the long term for morale, economy, mental health, NHS. Imagine another year of this pathetic stop-starting and half-arsed decision-making?

Bin men are always mentioned and are important, but I think first of the people who work in the electricity provision industry, the water industry, and sewerage processing. They all have to go on working, or people will die when their homes cease to function.

I think everyone whose work we need in order to survive should be high on the priority list for a vaccine, if they want one. Hopefully everyone will take it up and not listen to the scaremongering.

Why are people advocating for another lockdown when it’s going to be unenforceable, mixing in homes? The vast majority of people won’t comply with it.

Chaotic, I agree. It is all very well saying total lockdown from a privileged position or when it suits an individual but there are many more things and individual circumstances to consider. Some of us are looking after small children, working, trying to keep a roof over our heads and lockdown is just not workable even though I should be careful myself in terms of health. My choices are calculated risks. The virus will keep coming back after lockdowns and will keep mutating. We do need to be careful but also find a way to function and survive in other ways. They are bringing in weekly testing for teachers and secondary pupils in January, to me that seems more sensible. We just all have to take more responsibility about mask wearing, distancing and not mixing households. School transport should be considered but surely that’s not impossible.

I think initially a lockdown earlier would have been helpful but now the virus is everywhere and has been around for a year we have to adapt. Our immune systems will start to adapt too but it will probably take longer than we would like.

School transport should be considered but surely that’s not impossible. In London school transport is public transport. Buses are packed with kids going to school or college. Given that public gatherings are a no-no, this seems quite an oversight to me. It is never mentioned and yet is such an obvious way that the virus can be transmitted.

Alison20 what you're saying is basically herd immunity: I think initially a lockdown earlier would have been helpful but now the virus is everywhere and has been around for a year we have to adapt. Our immune systems will start to adapt too but it will probably take longer than we would like.

WHO says: "Attempts to reach ‘herd immunity’ through exposing people to a virus are scientifically problematic and unethical. Letting COVID-19 spread through populations, of any age or health status will lead to unnecessary infections, suffering and death."