New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

i agree @ElephantWhaleRabbit

If it is any help to people trying to understand what the blooming heck all this talk of mutations and numbers mean, I will have a go with a visual analogy.

Proteins are the building blocks of life, Everything we are made of and all the tiny machines that work inside our bodies. The virus is made of proteins too. The bit we’re all concentrating on is the spike protein which is like the spiky bit sticking out of an old ww2 mine.

One single protein is made of a string of amino acids. These in turn have been coded for by DNA or its sister RNA.

Imagine you have an old necklace in your draw with lots of beads on it, lots of different shapes and colours of beads, but it is all tangled up, that’s a protein. The beads are the amino acids.

If you were to straighten out that necklace ( if only!) then you could count from one end and give each of those amino acids a number.

So when you hear someone say N501Y it means the 501st bead has changed from N (red round wooden bead, in this
analogy) To a Y (let’s say a metal daisy bead).

Feel free to stop here. That’s what a protein is and that’s what these mutations mean.
————-
Now, my massive, old power necklace is in the back of a top draw in my room. Whenever I put my hand in there, I feel it and after a split second, I remember what it is. I recognise it’s shape.

If you’ve been exposed to the virus before or you’ve been vaccinated, that’s what your body does. And then you kill the bloody thing off!

Now imagine some of the beads are missing and some of the beads are different, because of this, the tangled lump of necklace has changed its shape. Perhaps some has become untangled, perhaps a new bit is sticking out.

You put your hand in the draw but you don’t recognise it straight away, it takes a few moments more but then you realise, “oh yes it’s that old necklace”.

This would be the analogy for the vaccine becoming slightly less effective.

There is absolutely no evidence yet this would be the case with this new variant. However over time, all viruses do this and that’s why we have to design slightly different flu vaccines every year.

@everythingthelighttouches

If it is any help to people trying to understand what the blooming heck all this talk of mutations and numbers mean, I will have a go with a visual analogy.

Proteins are the building blocks of life, Everything we are made of and all the tiny machines that work inside our bodies. The virus is made of proteins too. The bit we’re all concentrating on is the spike protein which is like the spiky bit sticking out of an old ww2 mine.

One single protein is made of a string of amino acids. These in turn have been coded for by DNA or its sister RNA.

Imagine you have an old necklace in your draw with lots of beads on it, lots of different shapes and colours of beads, but it is all tangled up, that’s a protein. The beads are the amino acids.

If you were to straighten out that necklace ( if only!) then you could count from one end and give each of those amino acids a number.

So when you hear someone say N501Y it means the 501st bead has changed from N (red round wooden bead, in this
analogy) To a Y (let’s say a metal daisy bead).

Feel free to stop here. That’s what a protein is and that’s what these mutations mean.
————-
Now, my massive, old power necklace is in the back of a top draw in my room. Whenever I put my hand in there, I feel it and after a split second, I remember what it is. I recognise it’s shape.

If you’ve been exposed to the virus before or you’ve been vaccinated, that’s what your body does. And then you kill the bloody thing off!

Now imagine some of the beads are missing and some of the beads are different, because of this, the tangled lump of necklace has changed its shape. Perhaps some has become untangled, perhaps a new bit is sticking out.

You put your hand in the draw but you don’t recognise it straight away, it takes a few moments more but then you realise, “oh yes it’s that old necklace”.

This would be the analogy for the vaccine becoming slightly less effective.

There is absolutely no evidence yet this would be the case with this new variant. However over time, all viruses do this and that’s why we have to design slightly different flu vaccines every year.

Thank you for that analogy - very helpful for clueless folks like me!

Fingers crossed it won't prove too serious!

@ElephantWhaleRabbit

The Guardian used to be my go-to source for news. However, I find their reporting of Covid so unrelentingly depressing I actually avoid it now. Also, was there any need to crank up the tension by calling it a “Crisis” meeting - can’t it just be a “meeting”?

The Guardian is wallowing in the misery of it all. Only the BBC is worse.

@everythingthelighttouches that is brilliant! Are you a teacher?

@everythingthelighttouches
Thanks that’s so understandable.

(While also bringing to mind various necklaces just languishing in my drawers)

Brilliant explaination everything. A very artistic explaination too!

It’s really not surprising that there are multiple variants. It’s great that we now have the ability to detect the changes but in a way I think the constant reporting on it is increasing anxiety in an unhelpful way.

I thought there was lots of variants anyway. They are just using this one as an excuse to change the Christmas rules.

@MadameBlobby

I thought there was lots of variants anyway. They are just using this one as an excuse to change the Christmas rules.

There are but they don't normally have an effect - this one looks to be a lot more contagious and explains why the Lockdown in London and the east of England worked well at the start but had stopped working by the end.

Thank you so much for that analogy, @everythingthelighttouches - I'm not scientifically minded and things like that really help me to get a handle on it.

It really baffles me when people say things like the government are over egging this in order to restrict Christmas mixing. Do they think that all these scientists in their labs are either making things up or colluding with government in some way? We should take the science seriously. So much of the response to this pandemic ignores the science in its clamour to politicise everything about it. That's why threads like this are so helpful.

@Madhairday I could not agree more with you. Do people really bloody think ‘he wants to ruin Christmas’ by making this shit up. It’s such a childish way of looking at all this.

@everythingthelighttouches thanks so much. I studied genetics at Oxford years ago and it’s so great to hear how you explain it all. Brings it all flooding back. Science is so powerful and I hope if there is one thing this pandemic brings it is to increase the scientific literacy of the population and encourage kids to keep going in science. It is shocking how it is so fundamental to our lives and yet so many people give it up so young. I have just read your explanation to my DS - hoping it excites him about biology, genetics and science.

@Madhairday

Thank you so much for that analogy, *@everythingthelighttouches* - I'm not scientifically minded and things like that really help me to get a handle on it.

It really baffles me when people say things like the government are over egging this in order to restrict Christmas mixing. Do they think that all these scientists in their labs are either making things up or colluding with government in some way? We should take the science seriously. So much of the response to this pandemic ignores the science in its clamour to politicise everything about it. That's why threads like this are so helpful.

Has 'the science' said that this variant is anything to be alarmed about though?

@oaktree55 the Oxford vax is proven to reduce transmission whereas Pfizer isn't. More data on the most effective dosing regime was sent to the regulator earlier this week. I don't think you know as much as you claim.

Lots on it on news this morning

Hard to know what the deal is

If this variant is more transmissible (as it seems it may be) then yes it very much is something to be alarmed about, as it means our existing systems for social distancing may not work any more, and situations (e.g. meeting people outside) that we see as low risk may no longer be so.

Evidence points to faster transmission apparently. Still not easy to ascertain.

Be nicer news if it was also less likely to end with illness or death at the same time

@bumbleymummy

It’s really not surprising that there are multiple variants. It’s great that we now have the ability to detect the changes but in a way I think the constant reporting on it is increasing anxiety in an unhelpful way.

It's quite possible it's being used to help coax all into hiding. Or it's quite possible that it's more easily spread. Or both.

I'm musing on the very rapid pit of nowhere school announcements. Maybe this strain speads more quickly and produces more symptoms in school age kids?

Scientist being interviewed about it on BBC now.

IcedPurple
“ Has 'the science' said that this variant is anything to be alarmed about though?”

“The science” isn’t a single, static thing. It is a process.

There is provisional evidence that it might be a problem. I doubt any scientists are “alarmed” yet, but many of us can see the potential for concern. The existing evidence is:

1. structural evidence- it is known some of the many mutations in this variant cause changes in the structure of the protein at important places.

1. It is known from separate studies on different variants (but which contain some of the same mutations), that the virus can “escape” the immune response. These studies were in people who were already very ill.

3.Studies in mice showed one of the mutations (N501Y) leads to increased ability to bind end enter cells

1. A different variant with the N501Y mutation has emerged completely separately in South Africa and is also becoming extremely prevalent. This, like the emergence of the new strain here, is correlation but not yet enough evidence for causation.

I have poo-poohed anything like this in the press before. However this is a bit different.

What we are all waiting for is the data from Porton Down where they will be testing this exact variant:

1. with recent human convalescent sera (naturally generated antibodies from someone’s who recently

Had covid) and

1. with vaccine-induced antibodies.
2. Binding assays
3. Looking at its ability to enter cells versus other variants

And many more experiments I can’t think of.

A whole other bunch of scientists will right now be doing some very clever computing to look at the rate at which this variant is increasing when directly compared to other variants in the same groups of people, in the same area, over the same period of time.

@everythingthelighttouches very well put again. And hopefully this explains why this is such a difficult thing to judge. When does the government blow the whistle? Now before potentially too late? Or does it await more evidence. This is such a difficult thing to manage at a population level. Hopefully people will be getting an understanding that it isn’t as simple as - oh the government don’t know what it is doing. I am not saying the government is in anyway blameless during this crisis but we have to cut them a bit of slack. And by the way how proud I am to have such amazing scientists in this country.

@laudemio

*@oaktree55* the Oxford vax is proven to reduce transmission whereas Pfizer isn't. More data on the most effective dosing regime was sent to the regulator earlier this week. I don't think you know as much as you claim.

That’s not really true for the standard dose/standard dose likely to be approved. There were only 3% less asymptomatic cases in the vaccinated arm v the control arm. Asymptomatic transmission is basically unaffected.

I think my scepticism of the government over Christmas stems from me thinking it a terrible move to have household mixing over Christmas . It has certainly given some people I .know the go ahead to do so.

I don't doubt the scientists I do doubt government and hence media spin. So yes this thread is useful to flesh out the detail. Thankyou all.

The thing about greater transmissibility is that it affects the Rnumber.

R is made up of 3 parts, two of which are features of the virus, which we can do nothing about, and one is human behaviour, which we can:

1. how long and when an infected person is infectious (SARS-COV2 s infectious before (and in the absence of) symptoms, unlike say Ebola which is only infectious once symptomatic, so easier to contain)
2. the secondary attack rate - what proportion of uninfected people exposed to an infected one go on to catch it. This is what the new strain is better at.
3. how many people an infected person is in contact with. If this is lower, then there are fewer transmissions, and this is why restrictions are as they are. Limiting the number of contacts is the only thing we can do