New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

is there not a benefit in ‘healthy’ people getting exposed and developing immunity so we can keep the country running?
mobile.twitter.com/rupert_pearse/status/1342020644247130113

www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/health/covid-natural-immunity.html

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf

I’m really puzzling on sth. If this new variant is already round the world and was only discovered by us because of our amazing dna sequencing (or whatever it is) then why is nowhere else being overrun with it like us?

@CoffeeandCroissant thanks for those links! Just to clarify, the vaccine is definitely the better option, but for large swathes of the population it won’t be available until (March?) at the earliest.

There is another view that ‘super spreaders’ should get vaccinated first.. sorry, not the best article but gives you the gist..
www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-super-spreaders/

Just to add to the above.. this only works if the vaccine is proven to prevent transmission as well as infection/symptoms.

@YuleAreBeingUnREASTIEable

I’m really puzzling on sth. If this new variant is already round the world and was only discovered by us because of our amazing dna sequencing (or whatever it is) then why is nowhere else being overrun with it like us?

Depends on where you are in the UK too though...

...which highlights how it takes a while for a new strain to get to a level where its problematic.

We know that covid was probably in the UK for about 3 months before we even noticed it was here. And it seems its about 3 months since this new strain evolved to us noticing it again. I note here that the numbers in the NW seem to be possibly about 3 weeks behind London.

We know its seeded throughout the UK. Its quite possible that its seeded elsewhere but not causing problems. Yet.

We shall find out in due course but I don't think its something that can be ruled out yet as a possibility either.

@YuleAreBeingUnREASTIEable

I’m really puzzling on sth. If this new variant is already round the world and was only discovered by us because of our amazing dna sequencing (or whatever it is) then why is nowhere else being overrun with it like us?

I'm not sure they haven't been. Russia, Germany, France, Italy and Spain have all had a worse second wave of the countries I've been watching. I had been wondering why they seemed to be having worse than us, and maybe this is the answer (or other variants)

Superspreaders should get vaccinated first
Interesting, and makes sense.... its the 80/20 thing isn't it 🤔
Makes me kinda glad I'm not a highly connected node !

Re other countries, isn't it that infections there can't be put to down to the new or any other strain so easily because they can't/don't do the sequencing as frequently as us?

I think its a combination of the lack of sequencing and the nature of exponential spread. I also think that we probably were the source of it, or at least one of the first countries to get it.

1 .. 2... 4... 8...16...32....64....128...256....512....1024....

A new variant would potter along at pretty low levels when it started out somewhere new, until suddenly BOOM! You REALLY know its there. Particularly if the other strains are in decline around it.

I think the new UK strain is still relatively recent, and is probably just hitting the BOOM! stage here (despite having been around for a couple of months) and is probably still in the pottering stage elsewhere.

The South Africa strain is going BOOM! over there, but is still pottering here.

Catching a new strain in the early stages is like winning (ha!) the lottery. The UK is doing a tonne more sequencing, so yes, we're discovering it more quickly. But I think other countries will notice it now even without sequencing, because firstly, the deletion in it makes it possible to spot through testing without fully sequencing (though you wouldn't be able to tell between UK and SA, from what I understand) but also, because it explains unexplained spikes and has a really recognisable growth pattern compared to the old strain. It's easier to find something once you're actively looking for it.

I expect in the next couple of weeks, we'll hear lots of "New strain found in France, new strain found in Texas" stories.

I think it might depend on the test they are using, nellodee. If I understood the public health expert from the press conference where I’m from, their tests would recognise it as a +ve covid test but wouldn’t be able to distinguish the new strain from the old because they don’t get the drop out from the deletion.

You could well be right, I am not up to scratch on all the different types of testing. I still think we will start seeing "New strain found in..." articles soon.

@justanotherneighinparadise

I like him. I didn’t but I can see how much he cares and I suspect he’s s bloody nice bloke.

He's grown on me. There's been moments I've disposed him - like when he rolls out the party line (eg "we threw an arm around care homes).

But he doesn't seem to be able to keep it up. The side of him that genuinely cares comes out when he is too tired and over a helmed to keep up the facade.

If he's him more often he could survive this whilst his Tory boy mates are not.

Yes, I’m sure we will. The question that we might not have an answer to for a while is how widespread is it?

Makes sense to be reasonably cautious until we can answer that.

I think Denmark do a lot of sequencing too so I think they might be in a good place to answer that question.!

Just looking at the rate of growth in cases in my area the past few weeks, it is evident that it is spreading quickly in schools, a contrast from September return to school

Just think, by now, the new strain is probably an old strain.

suddenly BOOM! You REALLY know its there

This. We all know what an exponential curve looks like but it’s a shock when we encounter the effects of exponential growth up close and personal. This is exactly how people have been describing the situation in schools. Most secondary schools have populations of between one and two thousand children. One, two four, eight, sixteen cases...doesn’t seem like a lot. But only a few more doublings and you’ve got more than half of the student body positive and lots of teachers getting sick. It’s grimly fascinating.

@Frazzled2207

Re Matt Hancock. I knew him at school. He was a nice bloke back then- had a well off family (private school) but not stinking rich. By the standards of this government he’s one of the better ones but still woefully out of his depth. As they all are IMO.

That's interesting. I've always thought he comes across as a decent person. But then he's a Tory so it's hard to reconcile lol

100 plus lorry drivers in Kent blockage positive. That's not going to help health services that are already overburdened. Unclear which strain.

Bloody hell! English or French?

@Theotherrudolph

I’m no scientist, but if there is one around, hypothetically (given enough time and resources), could we genetically engineer the coronavirus to become much less virulent but much more contagious, then set it off as a kind of contagious vaccine that crowds out the more virulent strains? Or is that total science fiction? I realise it’s probably so risky that it would never be allowed but wondering if it’s theoretically possible.

I wondered this too. I guess it's probably unethical and too risky, but it did strike me as a possibility.

Oh and finally, just my personal opinion is that Tony Blair was responsible for an appalling tragedy, due to wilful mistruths and assumptions without any actual evidence, so it is very worrying that he is still given airtime.

This could just as easily be applied to our current prime minister.

@CherryPavlova

100 plus lorry drivers in Kent blockage positive. That's not going to help health services that are already overburdened. Unclear which strain.

How grim for the drivers, to be stuck in another country away from anything familiar and they have to go through covid on their own and can’t get home. I feel so sorry for them

And what if the lorry drivers have had Covid 3 months ago and the test is picking up remnants? Just like people getting pre-emptive tests for Christmas when they aren't showing symptoms (4 families I know of have done this and are now self-isolating) . And the community testing picking up positives.

It's a real dilemma & I hope the numbers in the scenarios above are negligible. Or do I? Actually, I hope they aren't, difficult though it makes it for the individuals and their families. I guess, as always, it's always the hospitalisations that are what we need to look at (and they aren't looking great 😒)

@Poorlykitten

It’s perfect for scare mongering and keeping us all in line over Xmas, they need an excuse now they realise they shouldn’t have said we can mix...?

exactly this . . i honestly cannot believe from a lot of comments iv read on here on different threads about covid there are so many sheeple blindly believing all the sheer propoganda and bullshit this goverment are putting out via the press to take away our freedom and tell us how to live our lives . it beggars belief that there are people actually going to follow these stupid rules . i used to believe it all , but as the years gone on iv started to see whats happening , anybody who thinks we are all going back to normal once we have had this vaccine is deluded . they are just taking their gloves off now .im dreading next year . although all this said im happy to be proved wrong .