New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

@Puzzledtenant

Heard some science bod on the radio (didn't catch who they were with driving at the time) saying that although covid becoming more infectious was a serious concern, especially in the short term with hospitals overwhelmed etc, in the long term it was likely to make it less of a threat as the more infectious a virus becomes often the less deadly it is, as it doesn't want to burn through the supply of people to spread it. Does this sound likely to the posters on here with viral experience?

There's very little selective pressure on Covid to become less virulent as there is so much asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread.

[quote Covidwoes]@everythingthelighttouches I'm not scientifically minded at all, so apologies if this is a stupid question! DH and I both had positive tests 5 weeks ago. We live in the SE, so it could potentially be this new strain. Does that mean we can still catch the other strain? [/quote]
Even without new strains you can't assume that having had covid means you can't catch it again or that you won't have a worse case the second time.

@tobee I suggest you read up on independent review not comment made by those with vested interests

Thanks @QueenStromba - that makes sense, not the reassuring idea he was trying to put across then.

@tobee re Pfizer being prioritised for vulnerable that’s based on expert opinion I’ve read. Pfizer trial for example had much higher number of older/comorbidities and is mid 90’s effective and produces stronger antibody/immune response etc etc.

Thanks @QueenStromba. People keep assuming we are 'in the clear' now we have had it and that we are 'lucky' we can relax!

Cross post puzzle. That's what I have always understood about viruses.

Ebola kills itself off v quickly as did sars. The issue with this one is that in 1/3 of people it's asymptomatic, many just a bad cold, but an unusually comparable high proportion become very ill. And also long Covid.

Do you really think that if the Oxford Vaccine had been approved before Pfizer that they wouldn't have been giving out the Oxford Vaccine to the elderly and vulnerable @Oaktree55 ? Even with the numbers?

I read plenty of experts opinions thank you very much. It's not about vested interest rather that the Oxford Vaccine can be given much more efficiently and cheaply to the world population as a whole. The pandemic is not going to subside if only a small portion of the world's population is vaccinated. You need to look at the bigger picture. It's not about whether you and I have a good immune response. It's about as many people as possible. There will be people who are in the small % who don't get an immune response from the Pfizer vaccine and those who have allergies who can't take it all. There will, hopefully, a whole host of vaccines to use for different populations around the world.

“ Do you think it's likely that the virus will mutate sufficiently to cause vaccine escape, if not now, at some point?”

At some point yes, that is how viruses work. It would be normal and the scientists and drug companies are prepared for and expecting it.

By default, the changes we will see becoming more prevalent are those that make the virus more able to spread.

Think of it like the flu vaccine, they will give you a shot designed against slightly different variants each year.

Good news: It is not expected that sars cov2 mutates as rapidly as flu.

Every time a virus multiplies it needs to make copies of itself. That is when mutations creep in. There are slightly different ways viruses can mutate every time they are making a copy.

Flu is extremely error prone. SARS has its own proofreading system so doesn’t make so many “ mistakes” or “ mutations”.

I’m sorry but I don’t know for sure about the question about whether having had a different variant to this particular one before gives you any protection. That is one of the things they are (perhaps already have) looked at.

They will be growing the new variant of the virus up in the lab and putting convalescent plasma on it to see if it is killed off.

The chances of getting herd immunity are an equation of efficacy rates and uptake.

[quote Covidwoes]@everythingthelighttouches I'm not scientifically minded at all, so apologies if this is a stupid question! DH and I both had positive tests 5 weeks ago. We live in the SE, so it could potentially be this new strain. Does that mean we can still catch the other strain? [/quote]
I don't think anyone knows for sure.

Some other coronaviruses are thought to give some immune protection. It's not simplistic though; it depends on your own immune system. You can catch 7 - 10 colds in a year, your immune system may show symptoms to anywhere between 0-10 of them.

They think the issue with this virus is that it triggers an autoimmune response which keep malfunctioning and over reacting in some people, those who end up in hospital and those who have long Covid. So it's not just the virus if that makes sense?

@laudemio do you mean because then we can get vaccinated quicker! Hope so 😃

They will be growing the new variant of the virus up in the lab and putting convalescent plasma on it to see if it is killed off.
I have a very visual brain and I love this phrase!

I'd love to be a fly on that wall.

Even if the new strain ends up making the vaccines less effective we’ve got some room because of just how effective they are.

I used to get flu yearly and since I started paying for a jab I’ve not had it - and that often has a very low efficacy rate. I had thre swine flu jab and got swine flu, but was much less ill than the rest of my family who hadn’t had the jab. The vaccines are still likely to be absolute game changers.

Worth repeating what tobee has referenced.

“This piece from The Guardian talking to Professor Ravi Gupta is interesting:-

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/15/uk-should-boost-vaccine-programme-to-tackle-covid-variant-says-leading-scientist”

Yes the Gupta paper was out in preprint on 11th December and when matt Hancock made his announcement, several scientists found this paper combined with the announcement from COG ( which named the same variant)

www.cogconsortium.uk/news_item/update-on-new-sars-cov-2-variant-and-how-cog-uk-tracks-emerging-mutations/

to be quite concerning .

In the guardian article, prof Gupta talks about a second mutation (it is actually a deletion-removal of two amino acids) at the 69/70 position.

This is on top of the main mutation called N501Y.

There is a third I don’t like the look of.

We will just have to wait to hear more from the experts. Until we get the biology back from Porton Down, this is all circumstantial evidence.

If you start hearing them talk about experiments in the lab on this new variant with convalescent plasma. Pay attention.

@everythingthelighttouches

Yes, it’s real. I’ve been looking at the structures all week while we wait to hear on the cell biology (I presume some preliminary evidence from cell assays has just been presented to the Prime Minister).

Yes, there are mutations in tiny parts of the virus all the time. Most are inconsequential and you only really hear about something because it has been a change making the virus more able to pass between people (transmissible). Even then , it doesn’t necessarily need to be a worry.

However, I don’t like the look of this at all. It has 17 mutations and are in the spike protein . That is a lot.

One mutation in particular, called N501Y, is a change in the receptor binding domain, which is crucial for the virus to lock onto our cells. There are a couple of other mutations which are a worry which may also improve the viruses ability to get into cells.

Doubtful it would be more deadly/dangerous ( virulent). Possibly it may reduce vaccine efficacy but we really have to wait for the cell biology.

I expect we’ll hear tomorrow.

Really interesting, thanks. And really well explained

@tobee there are more effective vaccines available for world distribution eg Sinopharm which also don’t need cold storage etc. Why is everyone so defensive of a poor product (in comparison to others being approved for EU). If the immune response turns out to be less long lasting with Oxford then that’s a factor in deciding which are best for mass distribution.

@Cuddling57

Sky have mentioned possible travel restrictions in London and south. When will it all get better?

Exactly, and the time to do this was 2 days ago, when the news of this was released. Now people from affected areas will already be travelling for Christmas, and also just to get out of London for Tier 3 --and the impending Tier 20 London Lockdown.

Still, better now than never I suppose.

Shall we press on with closing the borders now, before we do National Lockdown 3 ,4, 5, 6...?

What a great thread. Finally some real science on here. Super interesting read. Thanks.

So, I’m in tier 2 but SE and some of the fastest rising rates. Live very close to family who are tier 3. If they shut down tier 3 then presumably I can’t go into it either - although my support bubble is in same tier 3 area so maybe I can. Who knows !

I hope whatever they decide it’s presented clearly . I know there’s no rule book for this but this is increasingly ridiculous.

Agree with @PurpleDaisies, sounds to me like there is a variant of covid that's more like a cold (lots of people talking about getting positive tests with snotty nose but no temp/cough etc) less dangerous but more spreadable leading to higher "infected" figures, and its an excuse for him to cancel the Christmas rules relaxation.

[quote Oaktree55]@tobee there are more effective vaccines available for world distribution eg Sinopharm which also don’t need cold storage etc. Why is everyone so defensive of a poor product (in comparison to others being approved for EU). If the immune response turns out to be less long lasting with Oxford then that’s a factor in deciding which are best for mass distribution.[/quote]

How long lasting the immune response is for any of the vaccines is not yet known for any of the vaccines surely? I'm not sure why you think it'll be less good for Oxford Vaccine. I'll take anyone I'm offered. So far we've only approved one vaccine here.

Rather than being defensive about Oxford I'm not sure why people are on the attack? People hurl about accusations of it because it's British that people defend it. I'm pretty sure that doesn't come into it as far as I'm concerned.

@christmaswoes have you read the thread?

The Guardian used to be my go-to source for news. However, I find their reporting of Covid so unrelentingly depressing I actually avoid it now. Also, was there any need to crank up the tension by calling it a “Crisis” meeting - can’t it just be a “meeting”?