New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

@tootyfruitypickle

Yes sorry my brain melted for a minute there . Sounds like to do with borders. Are people panic buying? Feels like normal Xmas shop here. Doing a presser telling people not to panic buy seems a bad idea IMO....

Actually I'm not sure if people are actually panic buying. But the bbc and sky news sites are mainly covering topics around freight issues and potential food shortages so I imagine that will set people off nicely .

I agree that a press conference asking people not to panic but is likely to be a bad idea, but I still think that's probably what will be said!

@RudolphToldRedNoseNotSymptom

Because he only speaks in emergencies?

No, that’s not right. We’ve had press conferences weekly or bi weekly for a while. Not always Boris but I think they’ve realised that’s one of the things the devolved nations are doing better.

I expect it will put all of the UK into Tier 4 and a complete ban of outward travel from the UK. Except for keyworkers and their friends - those making high-value deals.

That graph is interesting.

However it doesn't explain why some areas south Hampshire are tier 4. It's not detected there.

If he tells people not to panic buy I’m applying to be his new comms expert

That would be sensible.

@RedToothBrush
not necessarily. I think the blobs are in the centre of counties. So for example one is Wrexham IMO, one is Greater Manchester. I don't think they are geographically totally accurate - they are blobs showing a number of cases in a wider area I think and not necessarily connected with each other or classed a specific 'outbreak'.

These cases could potentially be confined to a school or care home, whilst not good, does not necessarily suggest it's rampant in the community.

Cross post that was to

I expect it will put all of the UK into Tier 4

I'm sure you'll be an excellent comms expert tc!

I'm surprised we haven't limited travel overseas more, as not doing that forces other countries to ban us entirely.

@itsgettingweird

That graph is interesting.

However it doesn't explain why some areas south Hampshire are tier 4. It's not detected there.

Maybe to do with existing pressure on hospital services there.

Given that positive tests only actually detect about 1/4 of estimated cases (ONS estimated 567k cases last week va the 116k positive tests) the variant could be in a lot more places than the map shows.

[quote Frazzled2207]@RedToothBrush
not necessarily. I think the blobs are in the centre of counties. So for example one is Wrexham IMO, one is Greater Manchester. I don't think they are geographically totally accurate - they are blobs showing a number of cases in a wider area I think and not necessarily connected with each other or classed a specific 'outbreak'.

These cases could potentially be confined to a school or care home, whilst not good, does not necessarily suggest it's rampant in the community.[/quote]
All ive heard all week has been 'such and such has tested positive / is in isolation' locally.

Its done that every time just before we've had a huge number of cases reported. So I'm not terribly hopeful. I hope I'm wrong but having seen where the numbers have gone from and gone to, im not on the optimist side.

For it to suddenly appear in the over 75s in a care home you have to answer the question 'how did it get there?'

It spreads to new areas through the most mobile section of the population. Which demographic is that?

Damn I was planning on heading to Hale Barns Booths this eve for my Christmas shop. Might give that a wide berth now.

Booths are on Deliveroo if that helps you @79andnotout, although a fairly limited range

Ah cool I didn't know that @ceeveebee! Thanks.

I'm very local to there too (jealous of Booths trip!) I know a lot of families who have second homes in North Wales, especially Abersoch so despite Tier 3 it may be that it has come in via that route. Also young people in school and socialising...

I don't want to comment on the care homes route of transmission...

I haven’t managed to catch up on the thread but have a possibly daft question.

IF some PCR tests are less sensitive to the new strain, is it possible the change in proportion of old:new strains could be explained by there being more false negatives among people with the new strain? So rather than self isolating, there are increasingly more people going about their daily lives while symptomatic and then infecting others.

Well the BBC interview they just did with an expert on viruses just frightened me more than I was previously. I’m not sure if they were there to make us feel better, but they didn’t.

She agreed this mutation was alarming as whilst small changes have been noted throughout this is 17 changes in one go which made her surmise it’s been learning as it’s gone and has done something really quite clever 😬

@RedToothBrush
i don't doubt that the increase is worrying, but I don't think we can say that it's due to the new strain (yet)

Good article

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/dec/21/delay-school-return-in-england-by-two-weeks-over-covid-union-urges?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

^UK experts have grown more confident about their conclusions on B.1.1.7, says
@PeterHorby who chairs NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group):
“We now have high confidence that this variant does have a transmission advantage.” (“moderate” on 18.12.)^
mobile.twitter.com/kakape/status/1341047038172160001

@everythingthelighttouches

Yes, it’s real. I’ve been looking at the structures all week while we wait to hear on the cell biology (I presume some preliminary evidence from cell assays has just been presented to the Prime Minister).

Yes, there are mutations in tiny parts of the virus all the time. Most are inconsequential and you only really hear about something because it has been a change making the virus more able to pass between people (transmissible). Even then , it doesn’t necessarily need to be a worry.

However, I don’t like the look of this at all. It has 17 mutations and are in the spike protein . That is a lot.

One mutation in particular, called N501Y, is a change in the receptor binding domain, which is crucial for the virus to lock onto our cells. There are a couple of other mutations which are a worry which may also improve the viruses ability to get into cells.

Doubtful it would be more deadly/dangerous ( virulent). Possibly it may reduce vaccine efficacy but we really have to wait for the cell biology.

I expect we’ll hear tomorrow.

What do you think of this paragraph in the NERVTAG meeting minutes:

Antigenic escape - The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate
with comparable data sets.

I don't like the look of: "Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects" especially when comparing to: Worldwide Reinfection data for the last 9 months or so - 25 confirmed reinfections, 421 probable; from 75 Million plus cases.

They seem to be saying this mutation could result in bigger viral load. Which really isn’t good

No it isn't. Fuck.

@Ninbus

They seem to be saying this mutation could result in bigger viral load. Which really isn’t good

Are you referring to a pp or something you’ve seen in print / heard on radio?