New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

@Ninbus

They seem to be saying this mutation could result in bigger viral load. Which really isn’t good

When we went into lockdown on 5 November whilst other areas of the country saw nice drop in positives, parts of Essex and East London continued a steady and then dramatic rise in cases.

We are 7 weeks on from there and lots of people on MN who report positive results seem to be quite surprised.

So whilst this strain may result in a bigger viral load it may not be the case that this is translating into a greater number of people being 'ill' with.

I read it in an article in sky news titled “why we should be very worried about new strain”

Apparently there is a new strain hotspot in Cumbria per this article.
Also note that people arriving from tier 4 have been asked to self isolate for 10 days. As if. Anyone socially irresponsible to travel from tier 4 last weekend would not abide by a voluntary request...
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/new-north-west-hotspot-mutant-19500236?fbclid=IwAR3PiqUkUrem-UPw4gSv4bQwq0WYZtxbetxDQFXeFi3F1gwZkdSqcHSSot8

(Arriving into greater Manchester that should say)

Folks for those who may not already be aware of it, I publish all the govt cases data by council on www.covidmessenger.com

You can check your council and the councils in your county easily. The sorting-by-county bit is new - I added it as it seemed kinda essential now that tiering decisions seem to be made county-wide. So it's not only about what's happening in your own council anymore.

You are welcome to use it/share it etc. I update it every day, about an hour after the govt's daily data release (so around teatime).

@littleowl1 , thank you for your service - I subscribe and the first thing i do every morning is peek with trepidation at my local figures. Today was not a good day

Cumbria was hit quite hard early on.

Is it predominating in places with a bit more preexisting immunity ?

Oh thank you @IrmaFayLear - without my email subscribers I couldn/t keep it going. And I do think its a very valuable, much needed and worthwhile service.

@DecemberDiana It's probably a bit early to draw conclusions on why the new variant is dominating the areas it is. Unfortunately I am in tier 4 so all to aware of it. In all honesty, it is quite probably just bad luck. The last few weeks have been really nerve racking seeing what is happening locally and to the councils in the rest of the county.

I get mine daily little owl

Fairly near you in T2 area boarding T4's.

As of 16/12 our T2 case rate was higher than the T4. Before they announced an implemented it.

I fear this wasn't a wise decision.

backyard72

“ Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate
with comparable data sets.”

If this proves to be true, and it’s a big if, that is a very high rate of reinfection indeed.

But I’m noting the second part of that sentence which says they need to compare with comparable data sets, which suggests to me it is not necessarily relevant across the board. Who knows what type of patients have a reinfection? It could be people who are already very ill and immunocompromised.

We will just have to wait.

Im in Cumbria. I knew nobody with Covid up to two weeks ago. In the last week suddenly seem to be loads, I know of about 6 personally and many more word of mouth....we are extremely rural. Our local pub had a load of rugby peeps, non social distancing (the pub will be fined) 6 of them were found to have covid. They were from
Chester I believe.

Really good explanation of what is known about the new strain from a virologist.
twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1341094836682838021?s=19

I learnt something fascinating yesterday.

By a complete fluke, the deletion in the 69/70 (I think) has led to a “drop out” of the S gene in the normal national diagnostic tests.

These PCR tests (the ones you get if you have symptoms and get a swab test) amplify up three genes. Recently, a lot of results have shown a “drop out” or non-amplification of the third gene - the S gene.

It depends on the kit that is used but in the UK, we use a kit from thermo fisher called TaqPath and you see this drop out with this kit.

So this means we can track (provisionally at least) who has the older versions of the virus and who has the new variant. Really quickly!

It’s an indicator at least, then those patients ( for now I believe) are followed up with full sequencing.

Phyzzy

That’s great, I am now following her!

She includes a couple of the graphs I was trying to figure out how to put into my post just now!

I’m fairly sure I had Covid in the spring, and was ill with confirmed covid end October. Identical symptoms, although much milder the second time around. Second time around it whipped through the gym I go to, nearly everyone there seems to have had it.

When I mentioned on here that I thought I’d had Covid twice, quite a few other people were also in the same position, some with confirmed anti LG tests and then positive swabs later on. This despite mainstream media not reporting on reinfections.

So - possibly this mutated second strain was the reason.

Hello to all the amazing scientists, doctors, and educated folks on this thread for being so generous with your knowledge for me who is educated but not anything to do with science helping me understand and information in a way that’s digestible for pretty much anyone but definitely me.

I have another possibly obvious question that is perplexing me.

The South Pole which is thought to be the coldest place on earth is around-50c. The cooling cores of nuclear power plants that I am aware of are less than that.

Wtf is in this vaccine that requires-80c storage? I mean even the number-80c causes me panic.

Many more thanks

Sorry for a follow on. Since there seems to be some information that this new strain can present asymptotically, the people who test positive feel fine and are shocked by a positive, we have already discussed that factor is a part of the spreading in addition to the new strains properties itself:

This is kind of morbid but, let’s say you feel great so don’t get tested because there seems to be no thought you need one, is it a correct assumption that the no symptom positive untested person who feels fine could be walking around not knowing that potentially a virus is could be killing you and therefore be a “silent killer”

Really interesting @OxoMonarch. Although I guess maybe worrying on a number of levels including that even if the 'new' strain is milder you can still get the 'original' one which is possibly worse.

To be chat this is speculation based on @OxoMonarch 's anecdote .

Sorry for the random bold.

[quote ceeveebee]Apparently there is a new strain hotspot in Cumbria per this article.
Also note that people arriving from tier 4 have been asked to self isolate for 10 days. As if. Anyone socially irresponsible to travel from tier 4 last weekend would not abide by a voluntary request...
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/new-north-west-hotspot-mutant-19500236?fbclid=IwAR3PiqUkUrem-UPw4gSv4bQwq0WYZtxbetxDQFXeFi3F1gwZkdSqcHSSot8[/quote]
Theres a new strain hotspot in Wrexham, Cheshire West and Cumbria but self isolate if you come from T4.

They might as well say 'keep out southerners we don't like you' for all the bloody good its going to do...

Given that you are not supposed to be travelling from T4 in the first place, I'm not sure that telling people who do will really have much of an effect.

That is very interesting Oxomonarch.
The doctor at Bradford Royal Infirmary writing a coronavirus diary for the BBC appears also to have just caught it for the second time.

I keep hearing how there will be evolutionary pressure for this virus to become less virulent as it becomes more contagious.

Surely since all deaths occur after the window of transmission, how virulent this virus is will have no impact on how well it transmits?

@everythingthelighttouches

I learnt something fascinating yesterday.

By a complete fluke, the deletion in the 69/70 (I think) has led to a “drop out” of the S gene in the normal national diagnostic tests.

These PCR tests (the ones you get if you have symptoms and get a swab test) amplify up three genes. Recently, a lot of results have shown a “drop out” or non-amplification of the third gene - the S gene.

It depends on the kit that is used but in the UK, we use a kit from thermo fisher called TaqPath and you see this drop out with this kit.

So this means we can track (provisionally at least) who has the older versions of the virus and who has the new variant. Really quickly!

It’s an indicator at least, then those patients ( for now I believe) are followed up with full sequencing.

Yes I heard this too. It’s how they picked up the strain I think by noticing the missing the third item

Can it be traced to see how ill people got? No idea what data is accessible

“ Wtf is in this vaccine that requires-80c storage? I mean even the number-80c causes me panic”

I imagine it is the lipid droplets that the RNA is suspended in. Lipids are more stable at lower temperature. It is to do with the physical properties of lipid-based versus water-based solutions.

There’s nothing sinister about it at all.

The standard freezers in any biology lab are -20 ( same as in your kitchen) and -80 (specialist).

@CrochetyCrochet

That is very interesting Oxomonarch. The doctor at Bradford Royal Infirmary writing a coronavirus diary for the BBC appears also to have just caught it for the second time.

Hadn't seen that, it's an interesting read. www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55338875