New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

Re virulence I wonder if there’s a tipping point whereby we alter strategy, ie if it is milder / imperceptible to a higher proportion.

I’ve got a home test arriving today after Zoe app asked me to test for headache and sneezing. Seems like they’re on it . I’m sure I’ll be neg as will most people with these symptoms but I don’t see why it would hurt to expand symptom list. DD had this weekend before and it only lasted 2 days which was odd for her but then I am pumping her full of vits ! I got it 5 days after she recovered which again bit odd. But I suspect I am over analysing and this is just a usual seasonal cold. All her friends have had it it so someone must have tested !!

Re virulence I wonder if there’s a tipping point whereby we alter strategy, ie if it is milder / imperceptible to a higher proportion

That's the thinking behind starting the vaccination programme even before we know if it confers full sterilising immunity. It reduces the risk to the highly vulnerable (elderly, CEV and CV) to that of a healthy under-50 year old.

Natural selection is known to make viruses less severe in symptoms (at least initially) because people who are generally well but a little under the weather will carry on their day to day activities

This doesn't apply to viruses which spread before the onset of symptoms.

Just my musings but will be interesting to see whether this new "mutant" variant, which is now wrecking our economy further as the world shuns us, is any less potent/deadly (which is what I understand can happen with viruses, they become more transmissible but less deadly - as ultimately they want to transmit far and wide, not kill their hosts).

Imagine if 16 million of us have been told to stay at home, when we could have been mixing and spreading a much less deadly version and building up natural immunity.

Unmentioned

I more mean for the vulnerable group rather than CEV. If this group is at lower risk from new strain at some point does it make sense to let it run and go back to shielding whilst waiting for vaccine.

My intention isn’t to provoke I genuinely don’t know and welcome insight.

But at some point if you have a very mild strain that gives immunity it can be a tool?

Not saying we are there yet. But the strategy so far reflects hospitalisation numbers which currently includes lower ages groups and CV

Of course you’d want to vaccinate before doing this but if we really are facing a strain that gets around lock downs bar maybe most severe it changes the situation.

If that was true, I wonder if there would be a way if immediate testing to distinguish the strains. Sadly I think it’s probably all the same virus just that more low risk people are catching it with it being so much easier to spread? So you hear anecdotally about more ‘cold symptoms ?

@tootyfruitypickle

If that was true, I wonder if there would be a way if immediate testing to distinguish the strains. Sadly I think it’s probably all the same virus just that more low risk people are catching it with it being so much easier to spread? So you hear anecdotally about more ‘cold symptoms ?

Tooty the tests do distinguish although we are not told yet.

But if it runs people are still more likely to get it.

@BridgetJonesDaiquiri

Just my musings but will be interesting to see whether this new "mutant" variant, which is now wrecking our economy further as the world shuns us, is any less potent/deadly (which is what I understand can happen with viruses, they become more transmissible but less deadly - as ultimately they want to transmit far and wide, not kill their hosts).

Imagine if 16 million of us have been told to stay at home, when we could have been mixing and spreading a much less deadly version and building up natural immunity.

We’re going to find out soon enough as we can’t keep furloughing forever. At some point next year we’ll have to just open up again and take our chances.

I am in South East and recently went into tier 4. Was due to have electric cosmetic surgery yesterday Sunday 20th December. Tested negative for Covid on 14th and then isolated in preparation for op although child was allowed to continue attending secondary school. Had to test again on 18th and results came back positive on Sat evening so of course cancelled surgery.
I have no symptoms at all and neither does my child. Hard to believe if I do have this new virus or if it was a false positive.

**elective cosmetic surgery!

@TheKeatingFive

It’s interesting that they’re saying that we don’t have any evidence it’s more contagious. It may be that recent surges are due to super spreader events where the new variant got lucky.

It sounds like Boris and co. have been somewhat irresponsible in their communication of it and what it means.

The nervtag info says it can raise R between 0.4 and 0.9 this poster provides misinformation.

@tootyfruitypickle that is scary, I hope you (and everyone else) remain well! I really know very little indeed about science but have found this thread really informative and helpful, thank you to all.

Being honest, I haven't felt this nervous since I received my shielding letter last year. I worry that we will look back on the last months as a much easier time compared to what's coming. Not to "make light" of what's already happened, I know lots of people have lost loved ones or been ill.

This time though I am worried about "logistics" and the knock on effects of the crisis more than my own health. I can imagine things like the NHS and food supply systems falling over very quickly due to the number of people who will be self isolating or ill, or unable to work if schools etc close. I also dread having to HE my DC who have exams next year, but I definitely want to keep this thread about the science!

(In a self centred way I have an over active immune system rather than under active, and it likes to try and kill me when I get ill normally so I am worrying)

Another absolutely brilliant article in layman’s terms.

It also has a graph of cases from the MK lighthouse lab which shows why even though the variant was detected in September, it was not immediately a concern.

theconversation.com/amp/coronavirus-new-variant-genomics-researcher-answers-key-questions-152381?__twitter_impression=true

Thanks for posting that @everythingthelighttouches

There's no evidence yet that this is a virus that creates a lesser reaction. That part hasn't changed according to the info on links in this thread. (We don't know that yet.)

It seems to be better at getting into cells.

Which may mean it both infects more people as well as trigger milder reactions in them than others so far as their immune system is stronger/ different.

Eg in the case of children; more children catch it and then have mild reactions that we might not have otherwise seen. Because they a) wouldn't have caught the original strains or b) don't have as bad a reaction as adults.

It potentially makes no difference to it's virulence in the rest of the population.

Great article, thanks everything.

Love ‘The Conversation’. Really recommend it for articles about current concerns that are more factual and measured. Anyone who likes this thread and the data one would enjoy it.

Yes, no evidence there is a change in severity. 1 in 250 of cases reported on died, and I noticed in the EU note that they said severity couldn’t be ascertained with any confidence as the demographic profile of the 1000 cases reported on was younger than average. This doesn’t surprise me as here in Kent many, many cases over the past few weeks have occurred in schools.

Well the demographics show the largest infection increase is in kids, hence why the government is now looking to vaccinate secondary age kids to control it.

There is no evidence that it is more potent or less potent becayse there is no evidence, it’s that simple, the scientists are working on it now.

What happening right now is they need to act like it is just as potent as the known strain. Assuming it’s less potent would be fool hardy.

www.irishtimes.com/news/health/new-coronavirus-strain-what-is-it-and-should-we-be-worried-1.4442296?fbclid=IwAR3MejwSxlzLqq185FUplPhIkPBEep8hSL8J4RXDnHH9_ihCHqCIj0YQYcc

Has anyone with scientific knowledge any comment to make on the following comment:

What has British public health officials worried is they have said this latest virus mutation enables the virus to bind more efficiently to cells within the body and that it has been shown to be more infectious and have the potential to make more virus once infection is established in the body.

There is a lot that we don’t know about it but, from what we do, I would be very worried mainly because the UK public health officials are suggesting this variant of the virus spreads more easily and there is some laboratory data to show that it is more infectious,” said Prof Paddy Mallon, an infectious diseases consultant at St Vincent’s hospital in Dublin and at UCD.

Now, I must provide a proviso that I am responsible for the thread about 'transmissible'.

What does more 'infectious' mean in scientific terms?

@Bluntness100 I wasn't aware that there is now a move to vaccinate secondary aged kids. Where did you come across that information?

“ B.1.1.7 also harbours a truncated ORF8 gene, with deletions in this region previously associated with decreased disease severity.”

Let’s hope this proves to be the case in this strain.

This may be the study they’re referring to Effects of a major deletion in the SARS-CoV-2 genome on the severity of infection and the inflammatory response: an observational cohort study

Still a theory and there could still be other factors at play:

www.tes.com/news/new-covid-variant-may-infect-pupils-more-effectively

@RedToothBrush I am in Trafford and have been tracking the recent rise too. I had wondered if if was lateral flow testing of students being misallocated again but numbers of LFTs not showing that. Proximity to Wales makes some sense, but also there are many people in Trafford and Cheshire who do a lot of travelling / commuting to London (I myself used to go weekly) even throughout the lockdown (apparently lawyers, accountants, consultants and bankers are exempt from the “wfh if you can” message - would not be at all surprised if that has caused some spread.