New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

@NeurotreeWenceslas

No, they'd be silly economically and from a long term behavioural POV to create a media scare storm without reason.

Agree

Plus this is a more considered thread based on science good to keep it that way

This is a great thread and I'm all for keeping it about the science

I am fairly sure that I got covid from DS who was very poorly in mid-March with a fever and cold-like symptoms for 2-3 days. I had the ‘long covid’ version and I still have backache (chest was worse at first but now it is my upper back, so the back of my chest). Backache makes sense as a symptom to me.

Thanks for this thread OP, very helpful! :)

I've run through the whole thread but haven't been able to grasp why or how the new strain may be more easily transmitted.

Dr Chris Smith (virologist) on the BBC this morning was asked this question. He said it may be because the mutation has caused the virus to become more 'sticky' i.e. it is more able to stick to our cells and infect them, than other variants of the virus. Thus it has a selective advantage over the other variants and so in time will become the dominant variant. (Please note, it is not definite that this is the reason why, it's an example he gave, but I feel it helps explain the concept).

Morning. Again to the scientists or other learned people here, I have a question which I will aim to convey in a way that makes sense and is clear.

To get to put out the number of new infections yesterday at circa 35,900 presumably they had to test that many people. The testing population could be varied, those who show symptoms and maybe key workers and other kinds of people who need it for work or other reasons who would NOT be showing symptoms.

Is this a correct assumption? And if it is, would it not be important to know how many people who tested positive are asymptomatic ?

Many thanks and I hope that made sense!

NERVTAG briefed government ten days ago. Government have not know since September.

There is nothing to suggest any of this has been ignored. It takes time for data to be gathered on spread. Which was the period from Sept to briefing.

Quite a lot of other new strains have popped up.

This one has rattled along with the rest, but now seems to have an advantage and be more contagious. That's their concern.

Of course it should be about the science. But science doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Where science, and the interpretation of science, impacts on society in a profound and immediate way, it’s quite wrong to try to police what can and what can not be discussed. Despite being “about the science”, this thread, in fact, contains a great deal of interpretation and speculation - which is as it should be.
The political narrative at the moment depends on a particular interpretation of the science. That’s OK. But we should be aware of the agendas, lest we fall into the binary trap that ensues. For an extreme example of how science can be manipulated and political ideas promulgated, see Lamarckism.

Bbc interview Grant Chaps: The U.K. carries out 45% of all genome sequencing of Covid worldwide.

They picked it up in sept because they've spent more time looking.

The new virus is particularly "virulent" (- I think he means contagious.) he said he think more of them are likely to be asymptomatic.

However, those who are vulnerable to it are still vulnerable to it.

Last week 27% hospital beds occupied in the SE.

This week 50%.

That's why they've acted so last minute.

Virulent means dangerous. Contagious means transmitted by touch or close bodily contact. Transmissible means can be transmitted person to person in a variety of ways. This virus is best described as transmissible, and is (eg) more virulent than the common cold.

Since I’ve learnt the meaning of virulent I’ve heard 3 ministers using it wrongly !

It makes absolute sense that the virus would mutate in this way, a more transmissible variant will come to dominate as it spreads more successfully than a less transmissible one.

Also, milder forms will (IMO) come to dominate, because a virus that kills or incapacitates its host isn’t going to spread as much as one that causes coughs and sneezes, but leaves you mobile and able to spread it further. Just like the common cold.

All of this is little comfort though to those who have already suffered illness and loss due to this virus, or who are very vulnerable to it. Let us hope that the vaccine is effective against this variant too, and that this will all one day be just a memory.

@Gothamgirl1970

Morning. Again to the scientists or other learned people here, I have a question which I will aim to convey in a way that makes sense and is clear.

To get to put out the number of new infections yesterday at circa 35,900 presumably they had to test that many people. The testing population could be varied, those who show symptoms and maybe key workers and other kinds of people who need it for work or other reasons who would NOT be showing symptoms.

Is this a correct assumption? And if it is, would it not be important to know how many people who tested positive are asymptomatic ?

Many thanks and I hope that made sense!

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

There were 35928 positive tests, of a total of 375,185 tests carried out

On a 7 day rolling total the number of positive results has risen by 51.2% (but still includes the 11k lost Welsh results) but during the same period the number of tests carried out rose by 4%

Even allowing for the Welsh anomaly, that's a substantial increase in the proportion of tested people who were positive.

Also, milder forms will (IMO) come to dominate, because a virus that kills or incapacitates its host isn’t going to spread as much as one that causes coughs and sneezes, but leaves you mobile and able to spread it further. Just like the common cold

That is not true of viruses which spread before symptoms. The spread occurs before the host is incapacitated, and it's doesn't matter what happens to the host after that.

By that logic you could say social distancing will likely drive the virus to become more transmissible. Eek.

@tootyfruitypickle

Since I’ve learnt the meaning of virulent I’ve heard 3 ministers using it wrongly !

Me too!

@DecemberDiana

By that logic you could say social distancing will likely drive the virus to become more transmissible. Eek.

Sort of but not SD would have killed far more people and clogged the nhs way more than it did. And it sounds like this version would have mutated anyway. And would have still been dominant.

It's bought time to develop the vaccine. It's now a race between the vaccine and the virus.

Sweden are regretting their approach now.

@Gothamgirl1970 I agree. We have a whole house positive here and had to lie on the online test booking and say we had symptoms. We tested as ds’s bubble burst at school and so far every single child has been asymptomatic. They need to be advising that the three main recognised symptoms now seem a bit outdated. Our main symptoms have been headaches, muscle aches and sneezing so far. Our toddler was up with a temperature and being sick in the night so presumably she now has it too.

Neurotree.yes. just thinking in terms of its evolution. We are so close now with the Oxford vaccine.

@NeurotreeWenceslas

This is just a musing; a couple of places, including Whitty, suggest it may cause more of a cold like response. So slightly different initial symptoms. (Not necessarily a wider worse or lesser immune response thereafter though.)

If that's the case could the increase in cases be because our criteria for testing is based on other symptoms?

So those with the mild cold symptoms, haven't been tested and so have passed it on? The greater transmission is because it's camouflaged as a cold?

That's an interest hypothesis.

Natural selection is known to make viruses less severe in symptoms (at least initially) because people who are generally well but a little under the weather will carry on their day to day activities. So with our 3 testing criteria many are likely spreading covid thinking they have a cold.

@tobee

Interesting that on here I've heard people who are positive mention having backache and headaches on here recently. Certainly don't remember backache as a symptom before. That's just a few people on here recently fwiw.

I'm sure I remember Kate saying Derek hadn't pain in his back/shoulder initially and they thought he'd pulled a muscle.

My brother had headache and his wife was sneezing and both tested positive in a hotspot area where they were encouraging everyone to get tested. He was shocked by the result as he felt very mild symptoms.

How would the virus appear in peopke who had already had it once? Would it mutate differently?

@DecemberDiana

Neurotree.yes. just thinking in terms of its evolution. We are so close now with the Oxford vaccine.

Yes, but then I keep coming back to the fact it's most contagious before symptoms too. When you're mingling.